County Hurdle (2.05) -Considering that his trainer has
always stressed how he’s been crying out for a stronger gallop, RAYA STAR did
exceptionally well to win the Ladbroke Hurdle and even better to come third in
the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, and with a strong gallop a sure thing to day,
it’s safe to think there could still be improvement in him.
Remarkably he’s still just 9lbs higher than when winning the
Ladbroke Hurdle – incredible when you think about some of the rises that other
horses take for handicap wins – and everything looks set fair for yet another
big handicap tilt.
The Ladbroke may not have worked out well but the form of
the Betfair Hurdle seems rock solid with Zarkandar unlucky not to get closer in
the Champion Hurdle, Get Me Out Of Here a good second in the Coral Cup under
top weight & Sire De Grugy winning at Taunton before then coming third in
the Imperial Cup, and the 11’s seems more than fair based on that.
With the Irish boasting eight wins from the last 13 renewals and four of the last 9 winners having come
from the Boylesports.com Hurdle, it would seem churlish not have a saver on
Citizenship following up his remarkable win there with a victory in this race,
like Final Approach did last year.
He now has to race from 133 having won off 118 at
Leopardstown, but given how far behind he was after being hampered badly at the
first, it’s not hard to think he’d have won even more cosily with a nice run
and it showed that he could handle the hustle and bustle of the Country.
Moon Dice deserves respect on his Galway Hurdle and
Greatwood form but the impression some people seem to be getting is that he
would have won the Greatwood had he not been interfered with on the home turn
and after rewatching the race I can’t be so sure about that, so while he has
his chance, he’s not for me.
Olofi is one who should give another good account on Newbury
form while Magnifue Etoile wouldn’t have enjoyed the soft ground he had to deal
with at Sandown last time. Having travelled well into the straight, he looked
sure to take a decent hand in the finish but couldn’t’ quite go with the top
two that day of Colour Squadron and Prospect Wells. Back on good ground he
seems sure to thrive for a strong gallop and wouldn’t be a shock winner.
The Imperial Cup has a good record of producing the winner
but Master Of Arts looked hopeless at the weekend and Ted Spread needs to
improve a ton for this sort of ground, although one suspects that an out and
out gallop wouldn’t hurt for a yard with a fine record in the race.
Ubi Ace moved yards for upwards of a £100,000 and it could
be a sign that Ubi Ace’s credentials are rated highly by his new owner. Having
forced too strong a pace when second in the Scottish County last time, he
should be suited by coming into the gallop, and it’ll be interesting to see how
Dirar – who has the ability to win this – goes after chasing big prize money in
the USA last year.
Advice: 1 pt each/way Raya Star (12/1 Boylesports, Paddy
Power) & Citizenship (8/1 Paddy Power)
Foxhunters (4.05) – A decent renewal this year in which
SALISFY holds strong claims following an impressive win in the Raymond Smith Memorial
Hunters Chase on his last start at Leopardstown. With his stamina and liking
for quick ground proven, his credentials are as solid as any and he has as good
a chance as any here.
In what looks to be a classy renewal, former festival winner
Chapoturgeon deserves a good mention as he’s certainly good enough, but the
trip is a doubt and in what’s always a fierce test of stamina, that’s the worry
for me.
Barbers Shop is another who has enough ability to be
pitching in there with the best although the way he was forced into an all-out
drive last time at Fontwell has to be a worry for one given how he’s failed to
stay here before, while Roulez Cool evidently has plenty of class but wasn’t exactly
cruising when brought down in 2010 and has been off for 657 days since. My
Flora’s got class in abundance but looked beaten when falling at Newbury and
needs to settle, while Merchant Royal has the sae stamina doubts as others.
An interesting each/way flyer at a price – Paul Jones’s ATR
stats guide has found that seven of the last 11 winners were sent off at 14/1+
- is Boxer Georg, who has only run two good races in his last 6 but one of
those was when pushing Baby Run (would have been in the first two last year but
for falling) in the Aintree Foxhunters and the other was when winning cosily at
Clonmel last time out. The same race that he was sixth in behind Salisfy at
Punchestown two runs ago has highlighted 3 of the last 5 winners so he’s taken
the right route, and if on form today 20/1 could look big.
On The Fringe was well behind Salify last time but that was
his first run of the season and if hit’s true that he’s stronger as a 7yo this
season then he ought to be thereabouts too. Cloudy Lane is likely to be staying
on late and his only real negative is the bad record of veterans -19 of the last 21 winners were aged
ten or younger from around half the runners.
Advice: 1 pt each/way Salisfy (6/1 Bet365), 0.5 pts each/way
Boxer Georg (20/1 Bet365)
Martin Pipe (4.40) – Ever since the declarations came out
for this race I’ve been waiting for MOLTOF to run in either of the big novice
hurdles but he’s been saved for this race and he’s well worth backing at 14’s.
A classy juvenile, he was second only to Zarkandar on his
debut and was going as well as any in one of the strongest Triumph’s in recent
memory before fading out after the home turn. That was the effort of a weak
horse though, and with another year on his back he’s done well – albeit in
novice company once again – going unbeaten in 3, winning a Grade 2 in tenacious
style at Ascot last time. That form’s not been so well represented since but it
was still a good effort to win after knocking the last down and with better
ground not a hindrance, and the step up in trip not likely to hamper him.
Open Hearted and especially Oscar Nominee from the same
stable also hold big chances, with the latter likely to get special attention
on the basis of his form tying in with Cinders & Ashes two runs ago, and
both are hard to fault.
Street Enterainer gets the better ground he clearly needs
here but this is a hell of a competitive race and the front two, headed by
Bourne, surely have better claims. Donald McCain’s novice is 10lbs higher than
when at Ascot but he beat everything easily that day and Smad Place’s run in
the World Hurdle underlines that. Gigginstown are trying to win again with
Tonder D’Ouraderies – who should be happy with this trip and ground – and
possibly more notably, Make A Track, who was staying on in the Boylesports.com
Hurdle having been progressive in novice company. He could be value at 14’s but
the one is Moltof.
Arab League, Dan Breen, and Empire Levant all hold chances
on their best although Arab League’s form needs improving on from a 13lbs
higher mark, Dan Breen runs into what could be called some better types, and
Empire Levant might not stay.
Advice: 1 pt each/way Molotof (14/1 general)
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (5.15) – Any number in with a
chance. Few hold the potential of Toubab and Kid Cassidy but this is a vastly different
test from anything they’ve faced before and it remains to be seen how a big
handicap will suit both.
Astracad looks sure to go well having been kept fresh for
this since his win in December for the same connections who won this with Pigeon
Island but I can’t help but feel that Barry Geragthy being on TANKS FOR THAT,
who’s sure to be ridden with some restraint following a weak finish last year
and has looked in better form, going well when falling here in December before
coming third behind one horse who was too progressive in Hold Fast at Sandown.
DE BOITRON is still 2lbs lower than when fourth last year
but gets 5lbs off his back thanks to Lucy Alexander and he could be well
handicapped enough to land a place at the least, with a return to form at
Musselbrugh last time all we need.
Any one of 20 could win but the top two would do for me.
Advice: 0.5 pts each/way Tanks For That & De Boitron
(14/1& 11/1 general)
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