Cheltenham Festival 2012 - Triumph Hurdle

Cheltenham Festival (Day 4, Race 1)

Triumph Hurdle (1.30)

Ante Post: 1 pt Grumeti to win Finesse and the Triumph Hurdle (16/1 Totesport, 28^th Jan)

Advice: 1 pt each/way Grumeti (7/1 Sportingbet)

Artic Reach: Been in good heart over hurdles, winning on the bridle last time out over hurdles (that all the way back in the summer); Form with Countrywide Flame seems good but it’s likely he’s been left behind.

Asaid: Useful on the flat (rated 80 at his peak) and travelled every inch as well when then winning on his hurdling debut (Second, third and fifth have all won by at least eight lengths); Fourth in Spring Juvenile Hurdle was a good effort but still seems safely held on that basis so others preferred.

Baby Mix: Fifth on one and only hurdles start in France but vastly improved when hugely impressive in beating Hinterland by seven lengths with ease; Disappointment when far too keen for his own good on trials day here but form of Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (produced countless winners) win over Sadler’s Risk (now 3lbs better off)  gives him a great shout.

Balder Success: Came to Britain with only the one hurdles starts under his belt but since proven to be seriously high class over hurdles, unbeaten in three UK starts; Never in danger of losing at Ascot against older horses and has to be high on the list here.

Countrywide Flame: Proved progressive with every single start over hurdles, putting up a career best effort in defeat when second to Hollow Tree at Chepstow and then again when third to Hisaabaat and Shadow Catcher latest; Will give good account but no reason why that form should actually be overturned.

Darroun: Made several mistakes when unable to get past Shadow Catcher on heavy ground at Punchestown but beat Hisaabaat with bit in hand at Leopardstown nearly a month on; Runner up (reopposes) went onto win Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown so clearly talented, and bred to like this type of test; Contender.

Dodging Bullets: Progressive on the flat last summer, ending steady sequence of improvement with good win over Hisaabaat (Grade 1 winner over hurdles of late) on flat when rated 89; Promising hurdling debut when second to Grumeti at Kempton and likely to improve for that, although he was beaten pretty easily and now is 7lbs worse off.

Dysios: More like the form he showed when dual winner on the Flat for Luca Cumani when running out a ready winner of Navan maiden hurdle but needs miles more than that here.

Grumeti: Possibly the most impressive performance by a novice this season when he routed all aged field on his debut at Taunton, winning by 14 lengths; Unlucky to fall at Newbury when set to win and while he needed stewards to win at Cheltenham on trials day (also 3lbs worse off with Pearl Swan), feeling is that he went into a very strong pace and jockey that day sure he was cost the race; Warmed up for this with comfortable win over Dodging Bullets (now 7lbs better off) at Kempton and looks sure to give big run.

Hisaabaat: Had become a little frustrating after unseating on debut with 3 runner up efforts but chose perfect time to break his maiden with Grade 1 success (blinkers), following route of Unaccompanied for same yard; This should suit even more and has to be given his chance for all that Darroun beat him fair and square when they last met.

His Excellency: Has been severely held back by his tendency to swish tail under pressure, running shockers in maiden company before running on Grade 2 second; Masterful ride when delivered late and perfectly to land Grade 2 but exposed by several of these latest and more needed here.

Hollow Tree: Made excellent start to life over hurdles, winning soft event by wide margin before decent, if not well beaten second to Hinterland (who in turn was well beaten by Baby Mix, albeit giving 7lbs); before winning twice since, including Grade 1 at Chepstow; Closely matched with Grumeti based on his third behind the two here last time out and interesting at 20’s.

Mattorial: One win from three over hurdles but that in a much weaker race than this and has 45 lengths to make up on Asaid.

Pearl Swan: Useful enough on the flat despite being a maiden and made an excellent start to life over hurdles when winning all aged novice at Taunton; Even netter when coming from miles back to nail Grumeti (had been a sitting duck) giving him 3lbs here on trials day, form that would arguably make him the one to beat; Strong pace surely going to be a help to him here and can see him going well.

Shadow Catcher: Shadow Catcher: Made a great hurdling debut (sent off favourite) when beating Darroun (who made several jumping mistakes) on debut at Punchestown; Travelled best for long way when second in Spring Juvenile Hurdle (pulled hard and sloppy over the last two)and not hard to think he can go well for a long way here.

Urbain De Sivola: Needs to better form of his Taunton dead heat to be winning this but not hard to see him playing a big role based on the form of his 10 length romp over Ranjaan at Newbury; Given chance.*

 *

Sadler’s Risk: Useful on the flat (fourth in the Chester Vase, which this year worked out very well) and created a deep impression on his hurdling debut at Kempton, when destroying an admittedly weak field; Good run when second to Baby Mix at Kempton and sure to like this track much better, for all that he’s now 3lbs worse off and was cosily held that day; Thereabouts.*

 

Ut De Sivola: Second in three runner French bumper before bolting in on Irish hurdles debut, coming home well clear of exposed rival with tons in hand; Travelled easily but set to be involved in big battle when runner up Hisaabaat made big mistake at last in Grade 3;Struck into himself last time out when 5/2 for Spring Juvenile Hurdle and surely better than that although it’s a bit disconcerting that had to be his latest run and ground a question mark now; Townend rides which is interesting but still better choices.

West Brit: Pulled up on his debut but sent off evens for that and nothing wrong with his form last time when beating Kie; That horse is miles off Triumph level so passed over here.

Wingtips: Fifth on debut behind Shadow Catcher doesn’t look half bad now but main problem with that is how he reverses form with the top two and beaten last time out in worse race anyway.

VERDICT: One of the most competitive renewals yet, with many sure to relish the test and a good pace. Baby Mix’s Adonis winning form – which has provided 5 of the last 12 winners, with Binocular only denied a head in the Supreme when he won in 2008 – gives him a cracking chance and he’s the one to beat, being 3lbs better off the runner up Sadler’s Risk, who’s sure to appreciate this stiffer track and should run a big race here too.  While both are hugely respected although still taken on with GRUMETI, who may have been beaten by Pearl Swan getting 3lbs when “winning” the Finesse Hurdle, but has the potential to improve for running into a strong pace like the winner did that day and warmed up perfectly when giving Dodging Bullets 7lbs and a beating at Kempton in the Dovecote.  Stablemate Balder Success looked frighteningly good when winning at Ascot and has to be respected, while the Irish Trio of Darroun, Shadow Catcher and Hiasaabaat all need considering seriously too, with Darroun just the pick. Any number of outsiders are also potential value, with Darroun just getting the pick on the basis of his professional attitude, strong stamina, and liking for good ground.