Dubai World Cup 2012

6.40 Meydan

Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Group 1) (AWT) (3yo +)

Advice: 1 pt each/way Game On Dude (10/1 Coral, Sportingbet),Smart Falcon (13/2 Ladbrokes), 0.5 pt each/way Planteur (16/1 Sportingbet)

Master Of Hounds: Rapidly progressive at end of 2yo for Ballydoyle before being moved to Mike De Kock at the end of 3yo season; Ran solid races on every start here and best effort yet when landing the Jebel Hatta here given a front running ride; Last two renewals of the race have been slowly run affairs which would make him interesting off the front end, although suspicion is that there are a few stronger than him.

Eishin Flash: Has some very smart form when he’s on his game, being a Japanese Derby winner before then coming close second in 2m Group 1; Right back to his best when close second behind Orfervre in Arima Kinen and that sort of form makes him a very interesting contender.

Zazou: Took his time to find form through last season but would be given huge chance based on his third in the Hong Kong Cup or a literal reading of his win over Cirrus Des Aigles at Chantilly; Needs respecting.

So You Think: Australian sensation who went long way to fulfilling the hype that he carried with him when winning Tattersalls Gold Cup, Coral Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes last year, proving to be too keen of his own good on two other occasions and given too much ground to make up during the Arc; Poor effort when only sixth in Breeders Cup Classic but then again over the top and better expected today from plum draw, although worry that he could be below peak fitness (notably hard to get fit throughought last season).

Smart Falcon: Comes here off a winning streak of 9, one of which when beating last year’s second Transcend in JBC Classic; Left a stark visual impression when smashing the course record in the Kawaski Kinen, has a super draw, and represents country that know how to win this event, so really high on shortlist despite worrying story about his weight loss from transatlantic flight earlier this week.

Planteur: Seemingly limitless potential when breaking course record to beat Sarafina in the Prix Ganay but disappointed since then, coming well behind So You Think at Royal Ascot before finishing unplaced when tried over a mile twice; Back to correct trip today and interesting with conditions set to suit given 3-3 record on seasonal debut under Ryan Moore.

Royal Delta: One of the best fillies in America last year, winning Alabama in deeply impressive fashion (emphasis on stamina) before winning Breeders Cup Ladies Classic; Eight length thrashing handed to her by Awesome Maria best ignored but on a line through Havre De Grace she has a lot of ground to make up on Game On Dude.

Monterosso: Hugely encouraging return from nearly a year off when fourth behind Capponi beaten only 6 & ½ lengths, having been a close third in this last year; Feeling is that this is a stronger renewal but if race was to be played out in same fashion, then impossible to discount.

Silver Pond: Ran into plenty of high quality horses last year in France, beating Beakhabad by a short head on his seasonal reappearance before coming third in Grand Prix De Saint Cloud, eight in Arc and then third in Hong Kong Vase; Good reappearance second behind Capponi in  Maktoum Challenge Round 3 but needs more today.

Transcend: Close second in this last year having nearly stolen the race from the front; Since beaten by Smart Falcon but also won two Grade 1 events, and had to be rushed hard get to make the lead when well beaten at ½ last time out; This seems like a stronger renewal this year but of interest if allowed to gain a good posse.

Capponi: Made seriously progressive progress this season, reversing form with Sarrsar in handicaps before running away with the Group 1 round 3 of the Maktoum Trials Challenge last time out; If he take another step forward like that then he’d have to come into the reckoning despite the obvious step up in class and once again.

Prince Bishop: Back in great style when winning handicap off 110 with ease and make up in some ways for disappointment of only being fifth in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 when third behind Capponi last time; Interesting that he’s the choice of Frankie Dettori today although others from Godolphin and in general preferred.

Mendip: Sixth in Dubai Duty Free having won two Group 3’s and fourth behind Musir on seasonal reappearance; Impressive when winning Group 2 and would be a lot shorter than 33’s if he hadn’t disappointed behind Capponi last time but come up short before on the big night last year and might do so once again.

Game On Dude: As tough and consistent as they come and followed up deserved first Grade 1 win with game Breeders Cup’ Classic second (ahead of So You Think but those placings may well be reversed); Still of considerable interest even from his wide draw given strong record of Americans in this race before Tapeta and if overcoming his wide draw, deserves a lot of interference.

VERDICT: A fiercely competitive race with plenty of angles form both a racing and betting perspective. Given a slowly run race, no runner could be fully discounted given an easy lead, as the last two winners have shown us (despite both those winners being class horses in their own right). So You Think’s form makes him entirely deserving of favouritism but there’s a little bit of guessing as to how entirely fit he’ll be and given his keenness throughought last season, a slowly run race would be a serious worry for him here and while he could be a class above, he does seem short enough on 5/2 on his seasonal debut. SMART FALCON’s next best and deserving of serious respect, something which doesn’t seem to have been given to Bob Baffert’s GAME ON DUDE, who has been given the worst possible draw, to come out from, although he’s now become value of because of that and if he can get a good break, then his Breeders Cup form gives him a major chance. On a line through Havre De Grace he holds Royal Delta (who should show better than her reappearance this year), while Zazou and Einshin Flash are just one of many with chances at decent prices. Those who want a decent price could do a lot worse than PLANTEUR, who looked to have a promising future last year before things went awry and he was tried over a different trip twice. Back over his best surface he can go well for Ryan Moore.