Cheltenham Festival 2012 - World Hurdle

Cheltenham Festival (Day 3, Race 4)

Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3.20)

Advice (ante- post): 4 pts Big Bucks to win Cleeve & World Hurdle (11/10 general, 28^th Jan)

Advice: 1 pt Big Bucks to win by 5 lengths or less (9/4 Totesport) 2 pts each/way Thousand Stars (10/1 Bet 365, Boylesports),  1 pt Thousand Stars w/o Big Bucks, 2 pts Thousand Stars w/o Big Bucks & Oscar Whisky, 1 pt each/way Dynaste w/o Big Bucks (8/1 Bet365), 2 pts Dynaste to beat Voler La Vedette (5/6 Ladbrokes)

Big Buck’s: Winner of this for the last three years, and unbeaten in 16 since returning to hurdles, beating off everything thrown at him; As imperious as ever this season, although surely handed his biggest test  through the presence of three 160+ rated rivals today; Still the one to beat by a long stretch and ninth Grade 1 success seems to be most likely outcome.

Cross Kennon: Fourth in this last year (steady gallop); First decent run since when second in same Haydock hurdle that he used as a laucnhpad towards this last season; Feeling is that this a better renewal this time round and lots more on his plate, so passed over.

Dynaste: Made good progress throughought last season, winning competitive race at Taunton before disappointing slightly at Sandown; Dramatically improved when routing rivals in strongly contested Haydock handicap hurdle off 141; Upped straight into Grade 1 company for a tilt at the Long Walk Hurdle, where he set an extremely strong pace from the front and then tiring late on in soft ground behind Big Bucks; Much better on good ground when restrained over C&D to come clear second behind hot favourite in Cleeve Hurdle; Not without chance of a place again.

Five Dream: Ridden cleverly to take second behind Big Bucks twice this season but put in his place last time and hard to fancy again even with pace burn up.

Mikael D’Haugenet: Found a bit of form this season after unsuccessful chasing campaign last year, winning three weak contests in Ireland’ Defeat inconceivable at Navan according to the market but well held by Mourad in second that day and hard to fancy based on his meetings with Voler La Vedette earlier in the season.

Mourad: As consistent as ever last season, winning twice at Grade 2 level and 3rd in staying events at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season (then fourth behind stablemate Thousand Stars in France); Beaten twice by Voler La Vedette this season and well held now by Dynaste based on Cleeve Hurdle effort; Needs much more here.

Oscar Whisky: Developed into a top notch hurdler last season, winning his first two starts in decent conditions contests before Champion Hurdle third and Aintree Hurdle win, going clear before holding off fast closing Thousand Stars (may have gone for home early but would have been beaten in another few strides); In the same form this season, winning cosily on all three starts (fell in Ascot Hurdle) and the main challenger to the favourite who’s sure to run a huge race if stamina holds out; Slowly run race sure to suit.

Smad Place: 10^th in the Triumph last season and even better this year, turning competitive handicap hurdle on his reappearance at Ascot before running big race when unable to give lumps of weight to Bourne; Step up to 3 miles may bring out yet more improvement for all he’s sure to need it.

So Young: Bough a big reputation to Festival last season and came third in god renewal of Neptune Novice hurdle; Unbeaten on all starts this season after disappointing at Punchestown in spring and respected based on seven length beating of Trifolium (ran a brave race in the Supreme Novices); Seed shouldn’t be a problem and looks as if 3 miles might be OK, so interesting.

Thousand Stars: Has been a revelation over past two seasons, filling the frame in plenty of Grade 1’s last season (best effort when only failing to catch Oscar Whiskey in Aintree Hurdle) and finally got a Grade 1 of his very own when winning the French Champion Hurdle; Handled Oscars Well with ease before being turned over here at Christmas, although one could argue that he didn’t have most made of stamina that day; Only third in Irish Champion Hurdle last time although may have gone from too far out and similarly well held before coming fourth in Champion Hurdle; Has a Grade 1 win over 3m+ to his credit and may well have beaten Oscar Whiskey in a few more stries at Aintree; Potentially massive value at 10’s.

Voler La Vedette: Gained a hugely deserved first Grade 1 when running out ready winner of Hatton’s Grace, with 3 and ¾ lengths to spare over Mourad, but far more impressive when giving said rival a far heavier beating on worse terms at Leopardstown; Turned over by Zaidpour last time out in what turned out to be a sprint on heavy ground at Galway and even if better than that (she is) hard

VERDICT:  Once again Big Bucks seems to be the one to beat and the banker for many at the Cheltenham Festival, but there will be serious questions for many who wade in at 8/13 in the shape of Oscar Whisky and THOUSAND STARS, who will offer the biggest test of speed that the current champion has ever faced, especially if the race is a slowly run affair. The general feeling is that Paul Nicholls’s champion can retain his title and become the first horse to do so this week, but he’s sure to be pushed all the way and a small bet on him to win by 5 or less lengths seems the value. Oscar Whisky is his main threat on the figures and seems sure to run well but the impression that Thousand Stars left when a close second at Aintree was that he’d have won with another furlong and with a Grade 1 win over 3 miles under his belt, he looks a cracking each/way bet. Dynaste, a rapid improver from the David Pipe stable, could also go well.