Cheltenham Festival - Queen Mother Champion Chase

Cheltenham Festival (Day 2, Race 4)

Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.20)

Advice: 2 pts win Sizing Europe (10/11 general)

Big Zeb: 2010 winner who turned around a 5 length beating by Sizing Europe to claim Punchestown equivalent of this; As good as ever when beating Noble Prince twice but ran well below par when a lacklustre second to Sizing Europe last time, finding nothing from 2 out; Needs much more to win today but good ground sure to suit him better as recent form shows, so not without his chance.

Finian’s Rainbow: Promising, if not sometimes too enthusiastic for his own good over hurdles but really came to the fore as a novice chaser last season, winning four out of his 5 races (including the Maghull), meeting with defeat only in the Arkle (where he was outstayed by winner having gone on quite soon from home);Remarkable that he got up close home at Kempton in December despite his awful mistake someway out, but beaten after having every chance in Victor Chandler Chase; Winner doesn’t reoppose and slightly quicker ground should help but worry about his stamina late on despite his scope for progress.

 

Gauvain: Has been in excellent form earlier this season, winning impressively over this C&D in conditions event before giving good beating to Somsersby in Peterborough Chase; Those efforts give him decent chance but well held based on his Ascot Chase third and wasn’t travelling well when falling in Vicot Chandler or Tingle Creek, so others preferred today.

I’m So Lucky: Bold front runner who landed biggest win in Celebration Chase nearly two years ago; Only fair effort in the Game Sprit Chase last time out and passed over.

Kauto Stone: Hugely exciting recruit, being a half-brother to fabled Kauto Star and also a Grade 1 winner in France; Exciting when romping home in Grade 2 at Down Royal on seasonal debut but proved no match for Sizing Europe in Tingle Creek and has to atone for disappointing effort in Ascot Chase; Said to be too keen and yard had cough but questions to answer.

  

Realt Dubh: Useful over hurdles and better over fences, landing pair of Irish Grade 1 races in a month before Arkle third; Yet another big pot landed when winner of Powers Gold Cup last time but essentially handed that race by fall of Noble Prince two out; Gutsy in defeat against Captain Chris when last season (318 days ago) but he’s got 6 lengths to make up on a racefit Finian’s Rainbow and may want a step up in trip anyway; Passed over.

 

Sizing Europe: Overcame poor season to win this last year in impressive style, and has only lost twice since, one when going 3 miles in soft ground and the other when turned over by Big Zeb at Punchestown; Thrashed Kauto Stone in Tingle Creek and did same to Big Zeb in Tied Cottage Chase last time, underlining his status as the clear and worthy favourite; Hard to beat.

 

Wishfull Thinking: Proven bitterly disappointing since doing so well last season over middle distances; Seemed to be back to form when pushing Finian’s Rainbow all the way at Kempton but again disappointed and hard to see winning.

VERDICT: 10 of the last 11 defending Champion Chase winners were beaten when attempting to defend their title the following season but it’s still extremely hard to get away from SIZING EUROPE, who will be pushed harder by Big Zeb (clearly blow par) than at Punchestown, but had so much in hand that day it’s understandable that he’s nearly odds on. He holds Kauto Stone on December form and looks perfectly set up to retain his title. Trends players will try to get him on the basis that just one winner has been aged older than nine since 1997 although Finian’s Rainbow – albeit being a very likeable and talented horse – has something to prove with his finishing, as he was outstayed in last year’s Arkle and then again at Ascot in the last 100 yards.