Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country) (4.00) –
SCOTSIRISH is the best of these on many pieces of form and has shown a real aptitude
for cross country fences, so he should be very hard to beat here with the good
ground sure to be in his favour far more than the heavy ground he’s encountered
in two wins at Punchestown this season. Form states that there shouldn’t be
much between him and stablemate Uncle Junior but Scotsirish has the much better
form at his peak and seems to have enough stamina to be right there at the
finish. While there are a host that have sneaky chances at their best, SIZING
AUSTRALIA ran an even better race at Naas than he did going into last year’s
race and is only rated 5lbs higher, so seems sure to be right on the premises.
You can get 4/5 on a place about him and that seems more than fair. Of the
rest, Grade Champetre should be right there and the arguments behind some
outsiders (notable Balthazar King and Dancing Tornado) are interesting,
although the top three have shown a high level of form in this context.
Advice: 1 pt win Scotsirish (4/1 general), 2 pts place Sizing
Australia (4/5 Paddy Power)
The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (4.40) – This looks to be
the weakest renewal that QUEVEGA has run in, so it’s impossible to oppose her
right now. Even at odds on she merits serious consideration as a lumping job
but a really interesting bet is the 2/1 that she can win by more than 5
lengths. With her lowest distance in this race being a comprehensive 4 & ½ lengths,
and that against two mares who went onto post ratings in excess of 10lbs higher
(she was giving 5lbs to the runner up), it would be no surprise to see her romp
home today with all the other runners having upwards of 10lbs to find.
One of those is Swincombe Flame, who may have been beaten in
a handicap at Ascot last time out, although she didn’t help her chances by
heading into a very fast pace for the whle trip and she was giving a lot of
weight to the runner up Bourne, so that looks like a decent effort. You can get
14’s each/way in a place but with most bookmakers only actually going only 3
places, take the 11/2 each/way in the without Quevega market, which lets you
have a ¼ of the odds up to fourth.
Of the others Kentford Grey Lady will relish a strong gallop
although dropping down in trip is likely to be more of a negative than a positive
for her based on her effort when caught flat footed in the Grade 2 at Ascot
over 3m which Volin Davis (not going to get an easy lead) won and Our Girl
Salley (should go better here for all that she’s no better off). Alasi won what
looks a weak Grade 2 last time out, and Shop DJ has a good chance on her best form
and looks to be a realistic place contender here.
Advice: 1 pt Quevega to win by 5+ lengths (2/1 Skybet, 1 pt
each/way Swincombe Flame w/o Quevega (11/2 general)
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