Coral Cup – (4.00) One of the most fiendishly competitive renewals
in years. It’s not hard to see Get Me Out Of Here gaining a deserved first
Cheltenham Festival win here despite top weight, but at a massive price Tim
Vaughan’s FIRST FANDANGO – Beaten by Rock On Ruby, Empire Levant, and Raya Star
last time out at Newbury but still as big as 33/1.
Following a tried and tested route to success of being kept
fresh for the race - three of the last six winners did not run during the same
calendar year – he looks grossly overpriced on that form when running off the
same mark as previously, with a previous win at this distance beforehand
(albeit in a much lower race).
David Pipe has the double header here of Poole Master and
Balgarry and both are potential will ahead of the handicapper, with preference
for the latter who was impressive at Newbury, and may have gone under the radar
thanks to Balgarry’s impressive win last time out. That form has been franked
since and he deserves a good mention, for all that the bounce factor is enough
to make one rather nervous about taking just 8/1, while I’m not so sure about
the trip for him even if ridden more conservatively than last time.
Cape Dutch, who found things happening too quickly for him
when seen in November, is interesting based on his wide margin novice hurdle
win and easy handicap success, while one gets the feeling that Sprit River has
had this race as his target for a long time.
The last three to mention are Silverhand (who didn’t have
much luck in running when going well in this race two years ago), Featherbed
Lane (who didn’t get home over three miles last time although that was on heavy
ground) and Carlto Brigante, who is a full 12lbs higher than when winning last
year, but he’s been kept quiet for this and it should be remembered that he won
on the bridle last year and that was by six lengths, so a big attempt wouldn’t surprise
at all.
Advice: 0.5 pts each/way First Fandago (33/1 general)
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.40) - When seeing
the final decs, the first instinct was to take on VENDOR on the account that he
was too short, but given the potential he has and the fact that he’s got no
more to prove than most of his market rivals, 9/2 – you can get 24/5 with Coral’s
enhanced win only market – seems a fair price even in such a competitive event.
He was running a big
race when falling at the last in the Prix Cambarces, the French equivalent of
the Triumph, and he backed that form up with an easy win at Newbury on his
debut over Tango De Juiley, who went onto be fourth in the Grade 2 Triumph
Hurdle trial here, which give his form (because that was his only serious
rival) a decent look. A mark of 129 looks more than fair for it and with his
trainer ranking him up there with his Triumph Hurdle hopes Grumeti and Balder Success,
a bold bid is expected.
Kazilan is said to be well handicapped by some although he’s
got a lot more on his plate today than when winning at Leicester or Ffos Las.
He’s respected here nevertheless (David Pipe has a great record in this event),
but the favourite gets clear preference. Gorgeous Sixty is expected to improve
on her Irish Hurdles form by some for better ground although one would have
wanted to see a bit more from her in two Irish runs, including when beaten as
favourite on her debut, and others are preffered.
Uluck Du Lin could technically be anything but his jumping
form in France was far inferior to that of Vendor and as a bigger price,
ARGOCAT appeals more. Once rated 88 on the flat, he lost his way towards the
end of that career but was only beaten by Shadow Catcher and Darroun on his
second start over hurdles and with that form going onto link better with Grade
1 company, it’s not hard to see him taking a big hand off this mark, with
better ground expected to help this son of Montjeu.
All seven winners were beaten on their first two hurdling
starts and 5 of the last 7 have won their third start to get into this, while a rating of 88 on the flat is one of
the highest in the field, which is encouraging given that three of the seven
winners were the highest rated Flat horse in the race.
Many others have a chance – I was surprised to see Royal
Bonsai as big as 20/1 given that he’s Grade
2 winner but the recommended two will suit just fine.
Advice: 1 pt win Vendor (9/2 general, 22/5 Coral win only),
0.5 pts each/way (20/1 general)
Champion Bumper (5.15) - A fiercely competitive event. It’s
hard to get away from New Year’s Ever with Barry Geragthy on top although this
is sure to be a massive step up on anything he’s faced before and – churlish as
it seems for an 11/2 shot - the value might have gone from his price, as hard
as he’s going to be to beat.
MOSCOW MANNON, who seems to have gotten better with every
single run that he’s taken, had had the race as his target for a long time and all
seems set for a massive run here if not inconvenienced from the return towards
good ground (he won a Galway bumper on the surface but has since bettered that
form significantly), with both trainer and jockey seemingly confident about his
chances.
Royal Guardsman and Sir Johnson are closely matched – the feeling
is that Colin Tizzard’s charge wasn’t at his best when beaten in October at
Aintree – and slight preference between the two is for the latter, who has had
a recent run and was so impressive when winning at Ascot on his last start.
He can beat Pique Sous, who looked good when winning at
Leopardstown but has a little to do today, while the other Mullins horse
(Champagne Fever) has it all to do on the bare form and may want some more cut in the ground.
Keep an eye out for the Newbury bumper form which is represented
by Horatio Hornblower (a staying on third, which has a notable debut) and
Village Vic (a really strong travelling type), and a win for either would be no
surprise.
Advice: 1 pt each/way Moscow Mannon (15/2 Stan James), 1 pt
Royal Guardsman to beat Pique Sous (5/6 general)
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