Cheltenham Festival 2012 - Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham Festival (Day 3, Race 3)

Ryanair Chase (2.40)

Advice: 1 pt each/way Rubi Light (9/1 general) & Somsersby (6/1 general), 0.5 pt each/way Great Endeavour (11/1 Sportingbet, Bet Victor)

Albertas Run: Has won the last two renewals of this race, beating off Poquelin in the 2010 renewal before completing Aintree double, and grinding out victory over Kalahari King last year; As good as ever when winning Old Roan Chase but the fact he’s been off since is a huge concern despite good record fresh and this seems to be a better renewal than last year.

Captain Chris: Took his time to get the hang of chasing but made into the leading novice chaser of last year with win in Arkle, followed up by gritty display at Punchestown; Less successful this season, unseating after the last when looking set to win Haldon Gold Cup, and then being held up by training problems before King George third, which was very creditable given that he was likely to have needed the run; Massive chance on his Arkle form of last year and meant to peak at this time but shocking run in Argento and might be an in running play.

Forpadydeplasterer: Back from sickness this season to run his usual solid races, twice behind Big Zeb at Punchestown and then when fourth behind Somsersby in the Victor Chandler last time out; Consistent but seems sure to find one too good again.

Great Endeavour: Picked up where he left off from 2 seasons ago (when he won the Bryne Group Plate at the Cheltenham Festival) after a below par season when bolting up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, having enjoyed a perfect trip; Understandably tried for Hennessy win and was going very well until stamina told late on; Unplaced in the Spinal Research handicap chase last time out but mistake on the far side halted his momentum and he wasn’t beaten when hampered by stablemate (given easy time afterwards); Respected here.

Kalahari King: Runner up in this race last year when beaten fair and square by Albertas Run; Not in the same form since and this a better renewal, so hard to fancy this time around despite the fact that he peaks in the spring.

Little Josh: Revived by front running tactics last season when landing Paddy Power Gold Cup from the front with great ride, but same tactics failed him off higher mark at December meeting and not been in the same form since, so passed over.

Merdermit: Better with every run over fences and unlucky not to win December Gold Cup at Cheltenham when giving nearly a stone to perfectly ridden runner up; Second only to Riverside Theatre at Ascot last time and while he’s probably got more to give, hard to see that form being reversed if winner comes on physically for his success that day.

Noble Prince: This race been in mind for him since winning Jewson Novice Chase last year and had the same preparation as for last year; No shame in losing to Big Zeb last twice but defeat to Blazing Tempo last time a little disconcerting; Needs to improve a good deal off that but longer trip and better ground more than likely to see him do so.

Poquelin: Beaten favourite last two runnings; Best run since winning limited handicap when second to The Giant Bolster last time out giving tons of weight over this C&D; Can run a big race at the prices but then again this a much better renewal which tempers enthusiasm for his chances.

Riverside Theatre: Made further progression from his promising novice season when second to Long Run in King George before running out a very easy winner of Ascot Chase on next start; Repeated that win on seasonal reappearance, which was a mighty effort given how much he could improve for the race; Worry about the track for some on the score of his fifth in the Arkle two years ago (got miles behind before flying late on) but that over 2 miles in a high class renewal and more mature horse now; Major chance.

Rubi Light: Third last year when jumping poorly by his high standards and seems to have improved since based on his excellent win in John Durkan Chase (probably comes here in better form and shape than either of last year’s 1^st two); Little disappointing in Lexus (might not have stayed 3 miles) but imperious round of jumping last time out sees him here on a high; Only worry about him is that he’d want more cut in the ground here but respected nevertheless big run surely coming.

Somsersby: Has long threatened to land a big event, mostly when further than two miles (given that impression since 2010 Arkle); Ran Masterminded to a head in Victor Chandler Chase in 2011 so disappointing at spring festivals but career best when winning Victor Chandler in first time cheekpieces; Last factor might be crucial as his finishing effort in beating Champion Chase winner Finian’s Rainbow was best for some time and this trip should be OK; Arguably best form in race.

Blazing Tempo: Had one of her better seasons, coming back to best with hat trick which was concluded in Normans Grorve Chase when getting the better of Noble Prince in soft ground at Fairyhouse; Likeable but that form could be reversed on the better ground.

VERDICT: The best renewal ever with 6 Grade 1 winners and seven realistic contenders on their best form. Riverside Theatre has good claims based on his Ascot win and he’s sure to be going well here – I think he can be forgiven his Arkle form based on the fact it might have happened too quickly for him at that stage in his career – with potentially substantial improvement to come for his first serious race in a year, which would see him hold Medermit once again. Noble Prince should peak at the right time once again and find the substantial improvement that he needs to take a hand in the finish based on this season’s form, but fellow Irish compatriot RUBI LIGHT has reached what could be called a value price on account of the ground and looks to be a solid each/way and place shout. It’s true that he wants more cut in the ground but he was second in the Lexus on good ground and seems like a better horse than when third in this last year. SOMERSBY can throw in a stinker but his Victor Chandler Chase form would see him as the one to beat, with Finian’s Rainbow having gone onto win the Champion Chase yesterday. Captain Chris also beat Finian’s Rainbow in the Arkle but one wonders if he’s the same horse this year and he might be more of an in running bet, with GREAT ENDEAVOUR the horse that appeals most as an outsider. David Pipe’s charge looked capable to taking on the best at any level when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup and has had excuses for his two defeats since.