Cheltenham Festival 2012 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

Cheltenham Festival (Day 2, Race 2)

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle (2.05)

Advice: 1 pt win, 1 pt each/way (6/1 general), 2 pts place Monksland (11/8 Ladbrokes), 0.5 pts each/way Make Your Mark (9/1 Stan James) – 3 pts Monksland to beat Sous Les Cioux (4/5 Bet365), 1 pt Make Your Mark to beat Cotton Mill (10/11 Stan James) 

Baldadash: Four race maiden over hurdles and looks to have little to no chance in race of this quality.

Battonier: Above average form over hurdles (better with each and every run), including when clear cut Grade 2 winner here last time; Clearly going forward all the time and taken seriously for all he’ll need to find more; Realistic chance.

Beneficent: Impressive winner two starts back but given no chance in Deloitte after pulling up in Thurles novice hurdle; Belied odds of 50/1 to land aforementioned event, being given easy lead but sticking on gamely to deny Sous Les Cioux; Consensus of opinion is that he was lucky to do so and that longer trip will see that form reversed, and even if that’s true or untrue, this seems a stronger race.

Brass Tax: Caught a tartar in Simonsig at Ascot on debut for yard and good efforts since, although he’s held by Sminonsig and Fiulin on that form and there’s no reason for the form to be reversed.

Close House: Won well at Towcester, following a promising comeback; Second to none other than Montbazon in DBS sales bumper last term and that makes him interesting, but not sure he’s of that level over hurdles.

Cotton Mill: One of many cross code recruits for John Ferguson who was useful on Flat for William Jarvis in 2010, and has created favourable impression in landing all three hurdles starts, including when getting up late on from Ambion Wood (who has since given the form a nice boost)  in Grade 2 at Warwick; Of interest here.

Double Ross: Progressive since hurdling debut back in October, finishing fifth behind some good types at Ascot before his easy soft ground win; Bettered that since in same conditions, notably when third in Challow and second to Supreme Novices winner Cinders and Ashes in soft ground Haydock Grade 2; Totesport Trophy disappointment really takes away from his appeal.

Felix Yonger: Same connections useful substitute for highly rated Boston Bob; Beaten first time out over hurdles but fairly taking Grade 2 win last time out at Naas despite some dodgy jumping at the last two nonetheless; Deserves to take his chance here but has to find serious improvement on that nonetheless.

Fiulin: Creditable efforts twice in 2010 but first run of any worth since when beating Brass Tax at Market Rasen last time out; Still needs to find a ton of improvement to get competitive.

Make Your Mark: Winner of point, bumper and maiden hurdle and as impressive as anyone this season in winning latter, drawing right away from decent field on the bridle; Beaten into third last time out in Grade 2 company but filthy ground against him that day and better can be expected on this surface; Interesting.

Monksland: Unbeaten under rules, following wide margin point win with laboured efforts on debut at Navan; Far better than that when impressive winner of Slaney Novice Hurdle from Lyreen Legend; That form been boosted by runner up twice since and did it on the bridle, so has to be respected seriously with better ground expected to suit according to trainer.

Nagpur: No wins from 18 in France but got the better of reopposing The Tracy Shuffle on second hurdle run and won handicap easily; Beaten in the same race that Aikedeau won before running this last year giving weight to runner up but that form still leaves him well short.

Natural High: Two from two in NH sphere, winning well after flat improvement in maiden hurdle at  Galway Festival (then for Dermot Weld, who said that he would enjoy going further at the time; Not run since September so passed over on that basis.

Nelson’s Bridge: Taking bumper winner when backed into odds on and followed up at Taunton on hurdling debut; Comes from leading stable (holds favourite) and fact he’s running here entitles him to respect although he has a ton of ground to make up on form.

Simonsig: Should be triple point winner but for falling who created a good impression when easily landing a strong Fairyhouse bumper for Ian Ferguson in April; Moved to Nicky Henderson since and didn’t break sweat when landing admittedly weak Ascot hurdle on debut, before travelling sweetly only to get outstayed by Fingal Bay at Sandown in Winter Novices Hurdle (form worked out really well); We learned nothing from his Morebattle Hurdle win but should be hard to beat anyway.

Sous Les Cieux: French import who suffered stress fracture when beaten on debut (odds on); Showed he’d recovered when unextended to come home in his own time and win by 6 lengths in weak maiden hurdle, but that still impressive; Dropped in trip and upped in class for Royal Bond Hurdle but travelling much the best in the straight and won well after being challenged by listed flat winner; Clearly not at same level when disappointing at Christmas meeting (very keen infront and hung head to one side under pressure) but once again outpaced when it mattered on good ground when beaten by Benefficent in the Deolitte; Sure to improve for step up in trip but needs to prove himself on good ground.

Sunny Legend: Different horse this season than last, going down only a length and a quarter to Crraigmorna King two runs back before winning well over two miles at Towcester; That still a level below what’s needed here.

The Tracey Shuffle: Travelled nicely off the front in last year’s Champion Bumper before fading badly late; Beaten first time out over hurdles before winning egg and spoon race at Ayr last time and worry that ground will be too quick for him.

Secret Edge: Made more than a few mistakes on debut at Chepstow when only just losing out late on and major improvement from that led to him winning Listed juvenile hurdle, when making good use of stamina late on (followed up in easier company since); Shaped as if he would be suited by a step up in trip when third in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle and then again better when third behind Battonier last time out; Held on that form.

VERDICT: Plenty in who hold a realistic chance, not least the strong travelling Simonsig, who’s 2 from 3 over hurdles. While he’s clearly very talented and should be hard to beat, MONKSLAND is nearly double the price and with improvement possible on this ground, he’s taken to give Noel Meade just a second win in this race. Sous Les Cioux ought to improve for a trip but he’s been outpaced twice in weaker races on good ground this term and Make Your Mark looks to be a bigger threat from the stable based on the impression of his two wins, with the heavy ground surely the undoing of his challenge at Leopardstown last time. Battonier, Cotton Mill and to a point Beneficent deserve respect while Felix Younger represents a yard with a great record in this race, although he will need to jump far better than he did when winning at Naas.