Cheltenham Festival (Day 1, Race 4)
Champion Hurdle (3.20)
Advice: 2 pts place Zarkandar (10/11 Ladbrokes)
Ante Post Advice: 2.5 pts Hurricane Fly to win Irish
Champion and Champion Hurdle (5/2 Paddy Power, Stan James, 28th
Jan), 1 pt Zarkandar to win Betfair and Champion Hurdle (16/1 Stan James, 12th
Feb)
Binocular: 2010 Champion Hurdle winner who didn’t quite
reach that level last season at major spring festivals; Typical profile this
season, needing the run too badly to be competitive behind Overturn on his
seasonal debut (well ahead of Celestial Halo); Gutsy as he’s ever been when
fighting to get the better of Rock On Ruby in Chritstmas Hurdle but first
visually impressive performance since his 2010 Champion when bolting up in the
bridle at Wincaton last time out, for all that Celestial Halo doesn’t look the
force of old; Respected.
Brampour: Didn’t quite live up to his potential last season
when disappointing at both festivals (based on reputation he had earned) but
took advantage of good mark to win over C&D and then follow up in Greatwood
Hurdle; Proven progressive since then, with his third in the International
Hurdle looking like fair form; In the grip of the handicapper based on two subsequent
efforts since then and while he showed inkling of promise in Betfair Hurdle
last time, this looks too hard for him. 
Celestial Halo: Rejuvenated to win 3 of last 4 starts
outside Grade 1 company, landing excellent double with gutsy win in Champion
Hurdle trial to follow up handicap
hurdle win in mark off the 160’s; No chance based on how easily Binocular beat
him last time out and much more needed. 
Hurricane Fly: Confirmed himself the best 2 miler around
without question last season, winning 5 Grade 1’s in deeply impressive style,
the culmination of that from a visual impression probably being his win at the
Punchestown Festival despite his hard fought win in last year’s renewal of this;
Off since then but came back in terrific style with a dominant performance to
slam Oscars Well by 6 & ½ lengths in the Irish Champion Hurdle; May even
improve for that so has to be the one to beat today. 
Kalann: Ahead of Oscars Well the 1st time they
met this season but had that form turned right around in Irish Champion Hurdle
and tonked by Zaidpour getting weight; Likes good ground but that alone won’t
turn things around. 
Oscars Well: Beginning to comeback to the form which saw him
win 2 Grade 1 novice hurdles so impressively, improving markedly on early
season form to come decent third behind Unaccompanied and Thousand Stars,
following that up with second behind Hurricane Fly in Irish Champion; Good
ground can see him better than but hard to see him reverse that form. 
Overturn: Improved tenfold this year over hurdles, winning
Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle (left infront at the last) and then coming right away from
Binocular (that form reversed since) in Fighting Fifth hurdle; Game second in
International Hurdle (giving 4lbs to winner) shows how good he’s become; Whie there’s a sucion that those efforts
might have taken a toll when below par and dropped off quickly in Christmas
Hurdle, he was seventh in this last year and looks there to be shot at again.
Rock On Ruby: Developed into one of the best novice hurdlers
in the UK in just three runs (over the top at Aintree) and deeply impressive
return in Gerry Fielden Hurdle, with the second having won by 29 lengths 2 days
previously, and the third having won the Ladbroke Hurdle afterwards; Nosed out
by Binocular on Boxing Day and would seem like the type to be better around
Cheltenham, so entitled to respect.
Zaidpour: Unbeaten in
4 since coming seventh in last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle, all of those on
heavy ground; Given canny ride to beat Voler La Vedette in Galmoy Hurdle and
had little to beat last time out, although he gave weight away; Already known
as very smart but move back to good ground is a question given how well beaten
he was in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. 
Zarkandar: Four from four over hurdles, marking himself down
as best juvenile of last year with commanding wins in Adonis and Triumph
Hurdles, before only class dragged him through when below par at Aintree; Last
year’s juvenile form been boosted time and again since, with multiple winners
coming from that event( although it should be taken into account that they’ve
improved since then) and showed his own wellbeing with hard fought win in the
Betfair Trophy last time, coming from
the back off a slow pace 5 to outstay well handicapped horses (including
Ladbroke winner); More is needed than that to challenge top two on figures but
impossible to imagine that he won’t improve majorly for that and with a strong
gallop guaranteed here, he should be seen to best effect; 5 year olds haven’t
won for decades outside of Katchit but Zaynar and Binocular were third (Celestial Halo second) so it’s clearly not a
barrier to a bold show.
VERDICT: Some doubted if Hurricane Fly would actually make
this event in mid-season but after a dominant performance when beating Oscars Well in the Irish Champion
Hurdle – as good as we’ve seen from him visually given the circumstances – he’s
very hard to oppose. He’s not unbeatable though (only 2 favourites have won in
the last 10 years) and the rolling double we have at 5/2 is much preferred to
the 10/11 on offer now. Binocular, the winner of 2 years ago, is sure to thrown
down a big challenge if at his best and wherever he goes Rock On Ruby should
surely follow on a strict interpretation of the formbook, but ZARKANDAR may be
the biggest threat. Unbeaten in four starts, he created a good impression when
landing the Triumph (which has worked out very well) here last season but he
put up an effort as good as any when landing the Betfair Hurdle off an
admittedly lenient mark at Newbury. The theory that he’s not quick enough for
the new course is negated by his wins on three flat tracks (Kempton, Newbury
and Aintree) outside of his Triumph win and the 10/11 that he makes the first
three, like other classy juveniles in the past, makes plenty of appeal.
PREDICTION
1. Hurricane Fly
2. Zarkandar
3. Binocular
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