Cheltenham Festival (Day 1, Race 2)
Arkle Chase (2.05)
Advice: 1 pt win Al Ferof (11/4 Paddy Power), 3 pts Al Ferof w/o
Sprinter Sacre (evs Ladbrokes)
Al Ferof: Winner of last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle,
outstaying the field after final flight; That form (which sees him hold two
rivals here) worked out superbly since, and if anything he looks at least as
good as he did over hurdles (running to a higher level of form) this year; Didn’t
impressive everyone with his Grade 1 win at Sandown but posted a much better
performance when third in the Victor Chandler Chase last time out, ending up
just behind two high class horses in Finian’s Rainbow and an on form Somsersby;
Major claims here. 
Blackstairmountain: Seemed rejuvenated when landing Grade 1
in Ireland (probably helped by fall of hot favourite that day) and easy to forgive
his Irish Arkle disappointment on the basis of the ground, but this a far
better contest and passed over. 
Cue Card: Star bumper horse and then good novice hurdler
(disappointed some after impressive win in Grade 2 hurdle), fourth in the
Supreme Novices Hurdle (behind top two in market) and then second at Aintree
(not helped by unwillingness to settle); Impressive debut win followed by fall
at Cheltenham when still going OK and only just unable to give 7lbs and a
beating to the useful Bobs Worth; Deeply impressive at Newbury when beating For
Non Stop further than Al Ferof did and entitled to major respect; May front
run, which could see him getting a lead, although he’s likely to be harassed
from the word go. 
Folidubh: Continued progressive form since last season (won
at Cork and Tramore) with solid efforts since but well behind the best in this
field.
Menorah: High class over hurdles (Supreme Novice, Greatwood,
and International Hurdle winner) who’s taken his time with fences, unseating
over fences on debut before making several blunders in two facile wins in
novice events; Fell again in Doncaster Grade 2 and International Hurdle fourth
(which gives him a rating 10lbs lower than his best) leaves him with a bit to
find, while his jumping is a worry.
Sprinter Sacre: Promising over hurdles, bettering his two
impressive wins with a third in the Supreme novices hurdle (faded badly after hitting
last hard, having run free all the way round); Flawless in three wins over
fences, taking the Arkle market by the scruff of the neck when destroying the
Champion Hurdle runner up Peddlers Cross in a match at Kempton and then beating
his elders with consummate ease at Newbury (track record broken); Could be a
superstar and every right to be hot favourite, for all theres a slight worry
about the hill proving too much again (still keen over fences); Said to have
had a wind op and looks like a better horse now though.
VERDICT: Despite the absence of Peddlers Cross, still one of
the events of the festival. Sprinter Sacre’s 3 demolition jobs make him a
rightful favourite, for all that he’s a very short one at his current price. He
looks a better chaser than hurdler and has had a wind operation since last
year, so one would assume on that basis that the hill shouldn’t stop him. He’s
not unbeatable though, and AL FEROF has achieved just as much as he has based
on his third in the Victor Chandler Chase last time around and with the
improvement he made for a strongly run race here last year in mind, he can give
the favourite a serious race here at the very least, while holding the rest for
the runner up spot if Nicky Henderson’s charge is truly as good as he looks.
Cue Card is entitled to huge respect while Menorah has a realistic chance at
his best for all that his jumping is a worry.
Prediction
- Al Ferof
- Sprinter Sacre
- Cue Card
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