Dipper Novice Chase 2011

1.05 Cheltenham

Cheltenham Pony Club Raceday Novices' Chase (Registered As The Dipper Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £14,238

Advice: 3 pts win Sonofvic (6/4 general)

Solix: Had a big reputation thanks to high class French form (Grade 3 winner in convincing style) and didn’t perform without promise on first UK starts in hindsight; Jumped poorly at Ascot but better as race went on, when coming well clear of Duke Of Lucca (winner next time); Worry about his error strewn round of jumping when winning weaker event over C&D and needs more today giving upwards of 3lbs.

 

Champion Court: Had the makings of a very useful prospect last season, winning Grade 2 at this meeting last year and ending up with a fourth at the Festival; Shown promise over fences, winning well before then being given too hard a task when trying to give 5lbs to Grands Crus (needed a longer trip); Well held third over 3m last time and not sure what the drop down in trip does for him.

Invictus: Been excellent in two starts over fences, romping away at Hereford and Plumpton, beating good field last time out with ease; Yard in good form and should go very well here.

Saint Are: Saint Are: Cannily placed to win Grade 1 at Aintree last season having shown promise beforehand in novice hurdles; Decent debut when behind Champion Court over a trip too short for him but not gone on from that and pretty sure that he needs longer.

Sonofvic: Point winner who looked like a very decent sort when winning twice over hurdles, making deep impression when fairly slamming subsequent winner & Grade 2 third Teaforthree with ease at Ffos Las and then finding plenty when beating Tornado Bob at Ascot; Cracking chasing debut when getting to within two lengths of Grands Crus at Newbury, readily outpacing two good sorts (seasonal debut); Big chance here if improved for that run.

 

Sybarite: Good over hurdles (Grade 2 second and second in strong novice hurdle at Kempton); Not been as good over fences, turned over in easy race on debut before being beaten miles here in two separate events; Others preferred.

VERDICT: A cracking novice event to bring in the new year. Invitcus is bound to be popular based on the impression he’s made so far but SONOFVIC too was good on his chasing debut at Newbury (that being his seasonal reappearance) and gets 4lbs from what could be described as his main rival. Solix needs to improve his jumping and had been saddled with a lot of weight, while the likes of Saint Are and Champion Court. 

Bet With Your Mobile At Victor Chandler Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) 2011

2.10 Cheltenham

Bet With Your Mobile At Victor Chandler Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £22,780

Advice: 1 pt each/way Calgary Bay (8/1 Bet365), Havinggotascoobydoo (6/1 general, 7/1 Skybet)

The Nightingale: Lightly raced and holds major potential based on his three wins over fences, two by long margins as a novice and one his impressive Grade 2 victory at Down Royal; Satisfactory comeback there when third in Champion Chase, having looked as if he was going to play a big part in the finish (stamina ebbed away); Comes here after fall in Peterborough Chase and while he as a lot of weight to carry, not without a chance if running to his best.

Hell’s Bay: Won the Grade 2 novice chase on this card last year (form worked out well since) and first run of this season since then when pulled up at Ascot behind Aerial; Probably not right on that occasion but if back to best has big chance on the handicap with in form claimer on his back taking off 7lbs.

Ghizao: Made into a very useful novice chaser last season, twice beating Arkle winner Captain Chris with lot in hand; Didn’t perform well at big spring festivals thanks to poor jumping, but that again the problem when fourth in Haldon Gold Cup; Same problem again when blundering twice in C&D handicap, but this probably easier on face of it; If stamina can be held, decent chance.

Crescent Island: First completed run since Racing Post Chase fifth when second to Chance Du Roy at Newbury (winner since second in gruelling Chepstow test) last time out; 6lbs rise only fair treatment but respected nevertheless.

Hidden Keel: Made up into a very smart novice, winning three times (twice by wide margins) last season; Well held on both starts this season and this drop into handicap company no easier, with a mark of 147 not giving much room for manoeuvre.

Calgary Bay: Plenty of talent (as shown in his novice days) and good efforts at this time last year, coming fourth in the December Gold Cup and then second improving Novice in trials day event; Good fifth in December Gold Cup from some way back and should go well here.

Cape Tribulation: Holds some useful form over fences (second to Wayward Prince in the Towton) and his chase mark is fair in relation to his hurdles mark; Huge disappoint in Tommy Whittle after promising hurdles run and tricky to rate after that; Others just feel more solid.

Duke Of Lucca: Very useful hurdler who was once bordering on top class in novice season; Jumped well enough on chasing debut at Chepstow but caught a tartar in Soilx next time out; Had decent rival beaten when he fell at Wincanton and interesting here for all this is a steep rise in class.

Hector’s Choice: Resumed progress from summer when winning on seasonal debut at Aintree and solid effort when third behind Chance Du Roy and Crescent Island; Not weighted to turn that form around (4lbs better off for a 6 length beating) so advantage presumably with Crescent Island of the two.

Mathui: Was in form of his life earlier last season, having beaten very useful yardstick by 9 lengths at Ascot before splitting well-handicapped/unexposed types in a strongly run race at Newbury (winner favourite); Plenty of promise after last two runs (going well enough when brought down at the last in Galway Plate, although whether he’d have won is another matter); Disappointing when beaten in the December Gold Cup and needs to do better here. 

Michael Flips: Useful over hurdles and made very encouraging chase debut when second to Cue Card; May have had race given to him by poor jumping of others at Ascot but not to be discredited for that, although he was beaten all ends up in Grade 2 there; Needs more today and while 7lbs claimer interesting, passed over.

Havinggotascoobydoo: Massively improved this season and shaped as if much more to come for step up in trip, first when second behind Tanks For That and then when staying on third behind Astracad, both in strong two mile contests; 4lbs “wrong” at weights but appeals as improver for the step up in trip.

Renard: Rounded off hat – trick with bold win at Exeter but then beaten in bid for four timers last time out, shaping as if further needed (last fence mistake did not help matters in any way) ; Feeling that this is another better race and maybe others preferred.

Pickamus: Hopelessly out of form last season but something like his best when close Stratford second, but once again well beaten when fourth at Kempton having been as short as 100/30 and this a far stronger event.

VERDICT: The presence of The Nightingale is a fascinating poser as he has a genuine chance at his best, and also gives a great weight to Ghizao. Paul Ncholls’s runner is fancied in this company, but needs to improve on his jumping and was beaten fair and square by CALGARY BAY in the December Gold Cup. Henrietta Knight’s charge seems to be at his best around this time of year and a bit run here would be no surprise, while HAVINGGOTASCOOBYDOO has the potential to improve for a longer trip. 

Today's Racing - New Year's Day

1 pt win Barbatos, 12.30 Cheltenham (9/2 Paddy Power)

A fascinating maiden hurdle to start off 2012 at Cheltenham and one which can see Ian Williams have a new year’s winner with Barbatos, who has bashed heads with unbeaten Challow Hurdle winner Fingal Bay and Simonsig already this season, coming off 19 lengths worse when third in the Winter Novice Hurdle at Sandown. That day he was 11 lengths ahead of Jump City, who finds race conditions asking him to give away 4lbs to his superior on form.

Before that effort at Sandown he was a good second to Fingal Bay over C&D in a Grade 2 which has seen the fifth win impressive in a well contested Newbury handicap since. Today’s task isn’t easy by any means (he has to give a lot of weight away to some good horses at the bottom of the weights) but the strong field should mean a decent price and his likeable attitude will help matters.  

One Term is interesting back on good ground and up in trip (Rebecca Curtis was quoted as saying that he’d be better over a longer trip) and gets 6lbs from the selection, which makes him fascinating given that his conqueror  while Master Of The Game needs a serious market check on his debut, but the pick goes to Barbatos.

1 pt win Oscargo, 2.45 Cheltenham (11/8 Skybet)

From a class perspective all eyes will be on Tidal Bay, one of the most enigmatic horses in training for all his talent, but Oscargo may be able to cope with a 12lbs rise and win his third race in four rules starts.

A good winner when giving weight to the since multiple winner/stablemate Harry The Viking on debut at Chepstow, he travelled well before being beaten only by two good sorts in Pettifour and Dorest Square, arguably blowing up a little late on.

He duly improved on that when winning easily from Kayf Aramis last time and while that was a very weak race for the money it showed he had more to give and with Tidal Bay having two ways of running, Get Me Out Of Here looking to hang badly, and most of the rest seriously out of form, he makes by far the most appeal even at a best price of only 11/8.

1 pt win Arthurian Legend, 1.45 Exeter

Phillip Hobbs’ Arthurian Legend can make a winning debut over fences here, assuming that his jumping comes upto scratch over hurdles. The 5yo son of Alfora readily left some useful types behind when scooting up in a handicap at Chepstow and ran a good race in a similarly competitive race at Haydock next time out, when fourth behind three horses rated 129, 136 and 155.

That form is arguably as good as anything that any runner can claim here and while State Benefit is likely to be popular, he wasn’t a sure thing when taking a crashing fall at Fontwell and his two disappointments over hurdles came on soft ground last season, which is a worrying stat given the state of the ground is currently set to ride soft today.

1 pt win Golden Chieftain, 2.55 Exeter

In what could be called a three way go, Colin Tizzard’s Golden Chieftain gets the vote to follow up his easy win against three rivals last month. Granted, that was a really weak event, but Colin Tzzard’s horse has always had much more about him than that.

An easy winner on soft ground on his hurdling debut last season, he disappointed upped in class at Cheltenham twice but then romped in again here and at Uttoxexeter before coming fifth in the competitive 3 mile handicap hurdle at the Grand National meeting. That form (which sees him rated 140 over hurdles) is arguably the strongest in the field here and even more impressive if you were to believe that he has a preference for soft ground (or ground with cut in it). Of his four wins, two were on good to soft, one was on heavy, and the other on soft.

Colin Tizzard’s horse has a lot of scope for fences and with a big win behind him he should be ready for tougher opposition, which he gets in the shape of Old Wigmore and Penny Max. Old Wigmore mat have won really well here last time but has only run one on ground worse than good ended up in a huge disappointment at Hereford and while this ground should be better one assumes it would still ride pretty testing, which leaves Penny Max, so clean at her fences last time, as the main one to beat.

1 pt win Frisco Depot, 1.25 Fairyhouse

Champion Novice Hurdle fourth Frisco Depot is surely worth a chance to open his account over fences in this contest. In just his third start over hurdles he was behind Graded winners First Lieutenant and Prima Vista (albeit being beaten 10 lengths) and he had previously beaten Shot From The Hip and Cottrelsboooley, both of whom have gone onto win since, while Foildubh too has won.

A chance is taken on his fitness and jumping but if both are upto scratch he’s got to have a cracking chance in a race where his opponents have serious question marks hanging over them based on their recent form. 

Challow Novices' Hurdle 2011

3.05 Newbury

Bathwick Tyres Challow Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £17,085

Advice: 2 pts Fingal Bay – Top Of The Range Straight Forecast (2.70 Bet365)

Ballyrock: 10 length point winner who proved hugely disappointing when only sixth on hurdling debut before getting the better of Listed bumper winner One Term at Hereford, an achievement made all the more useful by the fact it came after such a break; This still harder but respected.

Double Ross: Made the most of an easy opportunity at Folkestone last time when romping home from the front; This far harder and might have competition for the lead, so needs much more.

Fill The Power: Had the run of the race when winning by 27 lengths two starts back, but then well beaten at Aintree and while he bolted up again at Newcastle, this is a far stronger event.

Fingal Bay: Fingal Bay: Marked down as a hurdler to follow when taking home to win Exeter bumper by 22 lengths and backed that up when easing home to win Grade 2 at Chepstow by 6 lengths, hurdling fluently throughout; Since followed that up with Grade 2 wins at Cheltenham and Sandown, looking like a machine on both occasions; If anything, this a far easier assignment and should be making it 5-5 today.

Hard To Swallow: Another impressive point winner who won well on rules debut before disappointing in Perth maiden hurdle (form been let down); Looked in trouble but was still pitching in there when falling behind Fingal Bay latest; Could go well here but suspicion is that he was going to be well beaten at finish.

Top Of The Range: Hard at work to land short odds in Ffos Las Bumper back in April but drew well away after the last on hurdling debut in bumper there; Worthy of tougher tasks and interesting contender here.

VERDICT: If anything, this is the easiest task FINGAL BAY has had for a good while and defeat would be very disappointing. Top Of The Range might have more to give after his hurdling debut and is taken to follow him home. 

Betfred Goals Galore Novices' Chase (For The Hallowe'en Trophy) 2011

2.05 Newbury

Betfred Goals Galore Novices' Chase (For The Hallowe'en Trophy) (Class 3)  (4YO plus)

Winner £7,148

Advice: 1 pt win For Non Stop (11/4 general)

Cue Card: Star bumper horse and then good novice hurdler (disappointed some after impressive win in Grade 2 hurdle), fourth in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and then second at Aintree (not helped by unwillingness to settle); Impressive debut win followed by fall at Cheltenham when still going OK and only just unable to give 7lbs and a beating to the useful Bobs Worth; Should go well here.

Walkon: Top class juvenile hurdler in excellent crop before injury intervened, and disappointed after excellent comeback over hurdles last season; Right back to best when romping to chase win at Exeter last time out, with 6 lengths to spare over Zanyar (easy Grade 2 winner) and Grade 1 runner up Notus De La Tour; Big chance on that.

 

Criqtonic: Deeply impressive when trouncing his field in Auteil novice chase on last start for Gulliame Macaire; That form not worked out great but yard has won 4 renewals of this in recent years so must be respected for top yard who have won it 5 times since 2001.

For Non Stop: Progressive over hurdles, winning easily at Chepstow before running into Grands Crus and then falling when set for second in the Coral Cup; Fell when going well at Cheltenham on chasing debut and used useful spin at Ascot in Grade 2 to push For Non Stop all the way in Henry VII Novice Chase at Sandown; Should go really well.

Minella Class: Useful over hurdles, winning on good ground here before hacking up in Tolowrth Hurdle on heavy; Not quite back to best since then, disappointing over hurdles twice before satisfactory debut behind class act over fences; Got a ton of weight that day which tempered enthusiasm over his chances but respected.

VERDICT: One of the best novice chases run all season. Walkon and Cue Card both have tremendous scope as chasers, but also a very tough task giving 6lbs and upwards to FOR NON STOP, Criqtonic, and Minella Class. Nick Williams’s horse pushed Al Ferof all the way in the Henry VII Novice Chase and as such earns the vote, although all 5 have a good shout. 

Today's Racing - New Year's Eve

1 pt win Vendor, 12.55 Newbury

Alan King has had a terrific time of things with some big successes – the likes of Raya Star, and West End Rocker joining some impressive prospects like his wide margin winner Grumeti yesterday at Taunton – and his Vendor looks like a fascinating recruit to the juvenile scene.

Still a maiden – he had some jumping issues in France – he was running a big race when falling at the last in the Prix Cambarces, the French equivalent of the Triumph, when last seen just 55 days ago. King is very good with Juvenile hurdlers (and also at Newbury too) and the positive mention he got in the midweek column for the Weekender augurs well for his chances here. Tango De Juliey would look to be his main rival on form, but he has to give 10lbs to the selection and that’s a big advantage.  

2 pts win All The Aces, 1.30 Newbury

Soft ground is a possible stumbling point, but Nicky Henderson’s All The Aces looks to have a fantastic opportunity to open his hurdling account today. A Listed winner on the flat, he made an excellent debut when beaten by Prospect Wells, a previous Grade 2 second and subsequent Ladbroke fourth, and when well ahead of Carraigmona King, who came close to winning at Taunton yesterday in a strong event.

Champion Bumper second Destroyer Deployed is a big rival but he’s not run since then and in any case, All The Aces represents a stiff task for him here, while Vivre Libre needs to be much better than he was on his hurdling debut at Leicester in a weaker event.

2.5 pts win Mikael D’Haugenet, 1.35 Punchestown (4/9 Paddy Power)

Despite a disappointing debut chase campaign, Mikael D’Haugenet looks an obvious choice in this conditions hurdle. Winner of the Ballymore Hurdle in 2009, injures have probably contributed to him not living upto expectations (along with a heavy fall in the Drinmore Novice Chase last season) but his easy win in a Fairyhouse conditions hurdle showed he hadn’t totally gone at the game and a reproduction of that would see him beat Western Leader (who has been off the track for 631 days), Benash (only 6 lengths behind the pick on his latest starts although very well held) and Karabak, who was beaten 100 lengths when last of 6 in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown just a couple of days ago.

1 pt win Darroun, 2.10 Punchestown

El Teroreros is likely to be a popular pick after his fifth in Grade 2 company but that looks like a weak race and Darroun rates a promising proposition.  Thrice raced on the flat in France, he was with Alain De Royer Dupre before moving to the Mullins yard after winning a minor event at Nort-sur-erdre in June. He’s sure to have schooled well since arriving and it would be no surprise if he were good enough to take this on debut.

1 pt All favourites to be placed at Newbury today (50/1 Skybet)

This is one of those bets that can be dead in the water but it landed at Kempton on Boxing Day and it’s worth a poke at 50/1 with Skybet. The current favourites for now read

12.20 (Night Alliance) – Showed real courage on his chasing debut to get the better of the progressive That’lldoboy at Cheltenham last time out. The second has since run well again (going to take a hand when falling at Kempton on Boxing Day) and he’s only gone up 4lbs since, so stands an excellent chance of winning his race, while he does have a heavy ground win to his name so softening conditions won’t be that harmful to him.

12.55 (Vendor) – As said above, holds top class French form to his name (would have been close up despite looking beaten) when falling at the last in Grade 1. That form been let down a bit but still has a lot of talent and we know soft ground won’t be a problem for him, so that, along with the 10lbs he gets from Tango De Juiley, offers him a big opportunity on his UK hurdling debut.

1.25 (All The Aces) -  Testing ground is a possible poser but an excellent hurdling debut at this track behind Prospect Wells has since been boosted with the winner’s fourth in the Ladbroke Hurdle while the second also ran really well at Taunton yesterday in a good event. Destroyer Deployed is a big danger but Nicky Henderson’s charge has the advantage of a recent run (while that also comes over hurdles) which is a big advantage.

2.05 (Walkon) – The first of a few tricky legs as he must win but that’s factored into 50/1. His hugely impressive debut win at Exeter has since been boosted by the second and third and given that this is his second season hurdling he should theoretically improve for that run while he know he handles heavy ground thanks to his juvenile form.

2.35 (Quotica De Poyans) – Not the most convincing from this point of view but still ran a big race on his handicap debut (which was also his seasonal reappearance) before bungling the last, which ended his chances. Basic improvement for the run suggests he has a big chance.

3.05 (Fingal Bay) – Looks top class after 4 wins from 4 starts and if anything, this looks far easier than his recent task at Sandown when beating Simonsig. Massive shock if beaten.

3.40 (Olofi) – Probably the hardest of the lot but he’s got several good runs to his name in competitive handicaps and once again ran a big race when second in the Greatwood. Soft ground isn’t a problem (although the heavy in placed could be) and he’s got a big chance even off a 6lbs higher mark.

Istabraq Festival Hurdle 2011

1.55 Leopardstown

Istabraq Festival Hurdle (grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €55,250

Advice: 4 pts win Thousand Stars (5/4 general)

Gimli’s Rock: Very versatile sort, having won a Premier Handicap on the flat and Down Royal Grade 2, although that well over a year ago now; Needs to find 20lbs to be winning this on official ratings and others readily preferred.

Luska Lad: Super consistent last year when second in this being the highlight of his efforts; Ran well on many occasions since and quite well in with The Real Article on latest meeting; More than that needed here though.

Moon Dice: Made big improvement for drop to this trip in summer, winning ordinary handicap with ease before then making short work of Galway Hurdle field (form been boosted by The Real Article back in fourth since); Strong case can be made for him baced on fact that he’s technically well in with the Real Article and Greatwood form looks strong; Interesting.

Oscars Well: Made up into one of top novices of last season, completing Grade 1 double with ease before running huge race at Cheltenham (looked set to thrown down challenge before stumbling badly on landing); Shaped well enough behind The Real Article on seasonal reappearance but slammed with ease behind Thousand Stars in Morgiana and hard to see him overturning that form.

The Real Article: Gambled on favourite for the Galway Hurdle who was unable to make an impact then; Porgressed well over hurdles, winning pair of Grade 2 events with plenty to spare; Seemed well held on first step upto to Grade 1 company when third in Hatton’s Grace and same outcome probably likely here.

Thousand Stars: Has been a revelation over past two seasons, filling the frame in plenty of Grade 1’s last season (best effort when only failing to catch Oscar Whiskey in Aintree Hurdle) and finally got a Grade 1 of his very own when winning the French Champion Hurdle; Followed that up with superb display in the Morgiana Hurdle when front running and has a massive chance if improving from that. 

Voler La Vedette: Ran here yesterday and ran out an impressive winner of 3m Grade 2 Hurdle; Surprise if she reappears again.

Unaccompanied: Impressive wins on first two starts before Triumph second/Punchestown disappointment (over the top); Impressive reappearance win showed she’s in good form and rated a big contender here.

VERDICT: THOUSAND STARS is taking his well-deserved opportunity to shine with two wins in two starts, and a third Grade 1 is well within his grasp based on his deeply impressive reappearance win in the Morgiana Hurdle in November. If he improves from that, Unacccompanied, The Real Article, and Oscars Well will all have a mountain to climb. 

Today's Racing - 28th December 2011

1 pt win Hidden Cyclone, 12.55 Leopardstown (evs Paddy Power)

In a fascinating Beginners chase (probably the strongest event of it’s type run all season), John Hanlon’s Hidden Cyclone has a very stiff task on his chasing debut, but such is his scope that even an opening show of evens with Paddy Power looks worth taking.

A 5 time winner over hurdles, he’s only been beaten by First Lieutenant (a Cheltenham Festival winner since) and Zaidpour (who has since won twice this season, as well as being a previous Grade 1 winner over hurdles) at this meeting last year, and he has since won three on the bounce, giving upwards of 2lbs to his rivals on every occasion. Those weight carrying starts read impressively and he’s always been described as a chaser in waiting by his trainer and with a win on good ground (albeit that being his bumper win) the ground isn’t of a huge concern – They wouldn’t be risking such a prospect in any case.

Shot From The Hip, a Grade 1 winner at the Punchestown Festival when last seen (by an easy 9 lengths) is obviously a big threat on his best form, for all that he didn’t get anywhere as close to Zaidpour here than Hidden Cyclone did, although he may be better on this good ground (not a theory I’d subscribe to given that he’s a winner on heavy).

Others in a useful field include Celtic Folklore, who shaped extremely well when winning his first two starts before coming second (albeit well beaten) at the Punchestown Festival, and Nearest The Pin, whose last win came on good ground.

1 pt win Ile De Re, 12.10 Doncaster

Quite a few useful types appear on the start of a good card at Doncaster but it may be that Ile De Re could prove best of them here. A useful stayer on the flat (rated 94), the son of Daylami landed the staying handicap on Shergar Cup day at Ascot after a promising effort at the Royal Meeting, before pulling too hard in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock.

His form tailed off since then but a decent hurdling debut on energy sapping ground at Aintree showed promise when behind Keys (a three time flat winner and Listed bumper winner) and Cinders and Ashes, fifth in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham) and with that behind him he could be very tough to beat here.

1 pt win Prince Of Pirates, 12.45 Doncaster

A fascinating novice chase which represents a good opportunity for Nicky Henderson’s Prince Of Pirates. A good bumper winner, he had horses like Bobs Worth and Captain Chris behind him, before then disappointing at the Curragh. Back in the UK and over hurdles, he was still going well when Al Ferof fell at Cheltenham, leaving him to run out a fairly ready winner. That race was weak but it still represented a decent effort.

Given a lot of time off since (apparently he came back from his Cheltenham win lame behind) he disappointed at Punchestown in the spring but still has potential from that and it would be foolish to assume that he couldn’t win more races. If he settles well enough tomorrow, he should go very close to making a winning Chasing debut.

2 pts win Tour D’Argent, 1.10 Doncaster

Tour D’Argent hasn’t quite fulfilled the promise of his impressive bumper win since but he has as good an opportunity as he’ll get to notch a second win today.  Well beaten by Oscar Magic on his second start, he was outclassed in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree and ran better (if not a little keenly) when second at Warwick over 2m5f. With the drop back to 2 miles no problem and that stamina in reserve should he race enthusiastically Michael Buckley’s charge should be hard to beat.

1 pt win Lively Baron, 1.45 Doncaster (7/2 Bet365)

An interesting novice chase which was taken by Beshbar on his way to a Scottish National last year, in which Lively Baron gets the vote courtesy of his 16lbs weight turnaround with Harry The Viking when they met in the three mile novice at this track 20 days ago.

Donald McCain’s charge was readily left behind by Saint Are and Harry The Viking there but still managed to get within 5 lengths that day which dictates that he must have a big chance at these revised weights just by the means of simple logic, and he’s taken to reverse the form despite the added threat of Granduation Knight, who was impressive when winning his third race in a row at Ascot last time out.

1 pt win Lie Forrit, 12.30 Kelso

A fascinating race which sees three promising last time winners go head to head. John Wade’s Moon Indigo was beaten 17 lengths by Bold Sir Brian when they met over hurdles last year, which would take him out of the equation given that Lucinda Rusell’s charge seems to have gotten the hang of chasing with an easy enough win last time, although that was an easy event.

Both may have to give second best to Lie Forrit, who came back from injury with an excellent and typically gutsy win on his chase debut having been off the track with injury. If not bouncing from that, he has an excellent chance here.

Seen as a possible dark horse for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at last season's Cheltenham Festival after successive victories in a Listed race at Cheltenham and under top weight in a handicap at Newbury last November, he disappointed when stepped up to Graded company before then suffering a tendon injury which ruled him out for 626 days. He never got the chance to show his true class over hurdles but he was rated 148 at his best which gives him a solid form look here. 

Lexus Chase 2011

2.35 Leopardstown

Lexus Chase (grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €93,000

Advice: 1 pt win Quito De La Roque (13/8 general)

Cooldine: Proven disappointing since RSA Chase win (not come close to landing a race since second in Irish Hennnessy a couple of years ago); Easily beaten by Joncol and Rubi Light this season so percentage call to look elsewhere.

 

Follow The Plan: Landed Punchestown Gold Cup in May but (and all due respect here) that as flukey a win as you’ll see, with several horses stones below their best; This his first run since and others preferred.

Joncol: Very high class staying chaser wins in the John Durkan and Irish Hennessy to his name, and performed creditably last season despite not having a win to his name; Back to his best when romping home in decent listed chase on debut and while he was easily beaten by Rubi Light last time, did give first run to said horse (reopposes) and longer trip is sure to suit; Contender.

Magnaminity: Learned the hang of chasing very quickly when winning second time out over fences; Beneficiary of fine tactical ride (admittedly did jump well) when turning over Jessies Dream a Leopardstown and then one of 4 in close RSA Chase finish (behind Bostons Angel); Slog around her suits but not sure how testing it’ll be and this is his first race since, so fitness questions to answer.

Noland: Coaxed back brilliantly to win AON Chase at Newbury when last seen (previously off for 2 years with injury) and we know that the ground isn’t a problem; Was getting 10lbs from What A Friend though and this first run since, which presents a major question on fitness grounds.

Quito De La Roque: Turned into a star as novice chaser, meeting with defeat only when being left too far out of his ground by Bostons Angel here last year as a novice (almost certainly improved since); Looked for a long way as if he was going to be beaten but then took advantage of Sizing Europe’s stamina failure in Down Royal Champion Chase, a result which proves little apart from his stamina/heart; That said, with improvement behind him, should make a bold bid.

 Roberto Goldback: Showed smart form on more than one occasion last year but always held, apart from when looking likely to land Punchestown Gold Cup (terrible renewal) when falling at last; Well held in Cheltenham handicap and others far more solid.

Rubi Light: Last year’s Ryanair third is still progressing at a rate of knots based on his two runs this season, first when cruelly denied certain victory by unseating at last (set to beat a below par Sizing Europe), and next when trashing Joncol in John Durkan; Things will be harder for him today (runner up much better over three miles and he got first jump on him) but trip should be OK and major chance.

Synchronised: Landed major gamble when winning Welsh National a year ago and that had seemed like plan again for nearly all season but diverted here at late stage; Like soft ground but won’t have conditions as heavy as at Chepstow here and hard to see him going with this class of horse unless things become a massive slog.

VERDICT: Ireland’s premier staying chase before Cheltenham. The epic battle between Kauto Star and Long Run for the King George shows just how tough it will be for the Irish chasers to break into the Gold Cup picture, but this year’s renewal is worth watching to see the two most talked about staying prospects in the country face off in QUITO DE LA ROQUE and Rubi Light. Colm Murphy’s charge was a lucky winner of the Down Royal Champion Chase but plenty of improvement is expected from that and if things get desperate few will have more resolve. Rubi Light deserves his chance and should stay three miles (he was ridden very hard last time) but just loses the vote, while Joncol should be seen to better effect at this trip. 

Woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle 2011

2.00 Leopardstown

Woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle (grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €26,000

Advice: 2 pts win Mourad (6/4 Ladbrokes)

Karabak: Formerly excellent novice hurdler (second in Ballymore of 2009) but lost way a little bit since and only win in Grade 2 over 2m4f; Ran as if below form all last season and didn’t pull up any trees when behind Volder La Vedette on seasonal debut.

 

Mourad: As consistent as ever last season, winning twice at Grade 2 level and 3rd in staying events at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season (then fourth behind stablemate Thousand Stars in France); Satisfactory return in Hatton’s Grace when giving race fitness to Volder La Vedette at trip which might well have been a bit short for him, and better expected here.

Powerstation: Remarkable veteran who brought back some of the best days when winning the Proudstown handicap hurdle a couple of starts back; Second in this last year and still capable of putting in a good show, for all he’s getting on.

Shakervils: Formerly promising novice chaser who has since run midfield in two handicap chases at major spring festivals; Had talent to make it in this sphere but since been moved to different pursuits so passed over; Stable second string if running.

 

Voler La Vedette: Gained a hugely deserved first Grade 1 when running out ready winner of Hatton’s Grace, with 3 and ¾ lengths to spare over Mourad; 2lbd worse off, new trip, and doesn’t have race – fitness to hand so things will be much tougher, but worthy of major respect anyway and should run a big race.

 

Dare To Doubt: First win since all the way success in Grade 2 when taking advantage of lenient handicap mark to land mares handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse; Shapes as if 2m4f would be no problem but 3m unknown and this a stepp step up in class.

VERDICT: It was great to see Voler La Vedette finally land a Grade 1 last time and she has a good opportunity to land yet another prize. Everything dropped right for her that day though and she’ll find it much harder to beat MOURAD at three miles again, and off 2lbs worse terms.