On we roll with the Champions League bandwagon, this time going to France and possibly Italy, starting with Machester United travelling to Marseille. United’s away record in the Champions League makes for good reading. The Red Devils also possess the best defensive record in the competition having conceded just one goal in the Champions League so far this season. They also possess the best defensive record in the competition having conceded just one goal in the Champions League so far this season and they’ve been put in as heavy favourites to progress, understandably.
However United won’t have it all their own way. United have confirmed that seven players including Ryan Giggs and Rio Ferdinand have not travelled with the team for the clash, and they’ve missed Ferdinand badly of late, none more so than when they played Wolves at Molineux.
As far as I’m concerned the FA Cup game (in which Crawley played commendably) was nothing more than a second side outing for United, and I’d much rather look (from a form point of view) at their 2-1 win against City, where they were tight but deserving winners.
Before the tournament many fancied Marseille to go quite far, with their coach having taken Monaco to a final against Porto and also led them to Ligue 1 glory this season. And after a rocky start, they won 4 games on the bounce including a 7-0 victory over MSK Zilina to secure the biggest away win in Champions League history, all topped off by showing how good they really are when beating Chelsea 1-0 thanks to a Brandao goal.
That’s not the only positive. They have won five of their last six in all competitions, are unbeaten at home in 12 matches and can expect to cause United a good few problems, especially given that their key defensive man Ferdinand is out. United’s away form looks impressive but they’ve struggled in the Premier League and this will be a tougher test than most, and it’s worth remembering that Valencia missed countless opportunities to beat them.
The one thing preventing me from backing Marseille with real confidence is injuries. Andre-Pierre Gignac will miss the game with a groin injury while Brandao and Loic Remy also failed to finish Friday’s 2-1 win over St Etienne. Remy may make the game, but Brandao looks unlikely to make the team. A tight game is surely in store and with no side a standout, backing Marsellie to get competitive with a one goal head start might be the best option.
Inter v Bayern Munich is the game of the last 16 as far as I’m concerned, with the two finalists from last year coming into the game in an impressive run of form, having won 5 out of their last 6 domestically, and whoever wins the tie will surely be big contenders for the trophy.
For what it’s worth, the “form” value of last year’s final looks pretty solid to me. Inter defeated Bayern Munich 2-0 without too many defensive scares at the Santiago Bernabeu. There’s the bonus that the same squad (largely) will play again. Both sides have gone down and then up in big ways since then, Inter having overthrown Rafa Benitez and getting back into the Scudetto race thanks to new manager Leonardo, and Bayern having done the same but without changing managers.
The one key man who will change the tie is Franck Ribery. You can guarantee that the final would not have been 2-0 if he had been allowed to play following red card in the semi-finals against Lyon. Inter’s weakness is their two wide full-backs: Maicon and Nagatomo. The form has already been smashed up by Gareth Bale twice this season (so either of Ribery or Robben will be fancying their chances) while the latter’s just not experienced enough.
The positives for Inter? In Javier Zanetti they have someone capable to putting the shackles on B Bastian Schweinsteiger, along with the reliable Esteban Cambiasso and Thiago Motta to help ahcnor the midfield, while Eto’s form and workrate will allow him to press Anatoliy Tymoshchuk and Holger Badstuber, an area that’s not Bayern’s strongest.
Inter have an excellent home record in European competition with seven straight wins (which have included Barcelona and Chelsea) and might be worth backing to take a lead to the return leg.
Last week I recommended backing PORTO to beat Sevilla and although they made hard work of it, they came through at a good price in the end. They haven’t played since and will be fresher than Sevilla, who had to play Hercules on Sunday. As impressive as Sevilla were that day (Sevilla carved out the better chances all game and should have won by more) Hercules were only 2 points clear of the drop zone and things will be much harder against a fresh Porto in Portugal, so back the Portugese side to be too good.
Advice
1 pt Marseille +1 v Manchester United (4/6 Paddy Power, Bet365, Betfred)
2 pts Porto to beat Sevilla (4/5 William Hill, Betfred)
1 pt Inter to beat Bayern Munich (11/8 William Hill)
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