Scotland try to stave of the threat of the wooden spoon against Ireland, but will really have their work cut out on Sunday.
Scotland had much the best form of a home nation side in the Autumn, managing to beat South Africa and Australia. They started well this year, as losing in France is no disgrace - and they could take credit for scoring three tries in Paris - but their performance in defeat against Wales last time out was really poor. Scoring just six points, and failing to capitalise on a six-minute spell when their visitors were down to 13 men, wasn't good and Ireland are a much stronger test.
There are four changes in the backs, with Chris Paterson, Sean Lamont, Ruaridh Jackson and Mike Blair named to start. The half-backs Rory Lawson and Dan Parks drop to the bench along with Nathan Hines and Richie Vernon as replacments.
Ireland proved that they can get away with being in very poor form against Italy, where they tried and failed to outmuscle the Italian forwards and failed to really get an attacking game going (plenty of missed chances) before landing the spoils late on.
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| Ireland wing Keith Earls with one of many chances against France |
Their best performance this year has been in defeat against France, in a game that they should have won. The Irish paid heavily for indiscipline as five penalties by Morgan Parra and one by his replacement Dimitri Yachvili proved to be the difference. To lose by three points was heartbreaking but Ireland's error count was enough to make you weep. That said, they showed miles more creatively than Scotland against Wales and will fancy their chances here, with Scotland’s team changes not sure to work the trick, and Dan Parkes missing out only hurts their chances.
It’s obvious to say this but Ireland are the clear pick here following on from a brave defeat against France and while Scotland may be rejuvenated by the underdog status, the absence of Dan Parkes is a crucial blow for their hopes, as there are few more reliable men to take advantage of Ireland’s shoddy error count. Ireland shouldn’t have lost against France and were punished by a high class opponent for indiscipline but will be harder to beat here.
Advice
3 pts Ireland -5 v Scotland (10/11 Paddy Power)
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