The biggest game of the tournament so far, with tow of the big three facing each – other after wins, although the performances of those victories differ vastly, a factor that’s reflected in the odds. IRELAND looked dreadful against Italy last weekend and needed a Ronan O'Gara drop-goal to help them scrape past Italy 13-11 and prevent their first ever Six Nations loss against the Azzurri.
That performance now just looks worse after an abject Italy display against England today, although home advantage may have played a big part in Italy’s resurgence. The scoreline may flatter Ireland but it wasn’t the worst performance you’ll ever see from them and Italy played with a large amount of credit. For the first half, they truly were as poor as they looked. In the second half however, after O’Driscoll’s try, they drove a lineout, pushed Keith Earls off his wing, and if the switch of direction by Jonathan Sexton was a little premature he had the strength to stand up until the forwards came to his help and recycle the ball for O'Driscoll. Declan Kidney's side did not want for chances against Italy but failed to finish them off, and if they can be more clinical against France then they’ll do well.
France obviously were vastly superior in terms of performance against Scotland. They were a joy to watch, the highlight being Trinh-Duc's outrageous flip between the legs setting Imanol Harinordoquy away in the 55th minute. If they take that sort of form to Dublin, there should be only one winner.
This game is likely to be decided by very small things or factors. The start, as team captain Brian O’Driscoll has already said, will be crucial and I fit’s still close after 20 minutes, or better Ireland are infront, then things will really be even.
Heaslip's return for Ireland cannot be underestimated. He was the stand-out performer in the Autumn internationals and is brilliant with ball in hand and strong in the tackle. The one obvious place of weakness for Ireland is the scrums, but if they can do better than Scotland did last week (something that they’re capable of) then things will be close and it’s worth remembering that for all France were clearly the class act, they didn’t thrash Scotland by any means.
It’s taking a big risk but as we’ve already seen this weekend, teams don’t necessarily take their form from one game to the next in this tournament and home advantage may swing it. There will probably be a lot of points on offer though, and Paddy Power may have pulled a bit of magic out of the bag with their offer of 35-48 points being scored in total, which falls perfectly between overs and unders without having to choose based on the number of 42.
Recommendations
Ireland to beat France (6/4 general, 8/5 Sportingbet)
Between 35 and 48 points to be scored (11/10 Paddy Power)
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