Cheltenham Festival Ante Post - Supreme Novices Hurdle

There’s a really key stat that could shape the Supreme Novices Hurdle: Only 6 favourites have won in the last 31 runnings and none in the last 6 years. Horses beaten by that stat include future Champion Hurdle winner Binocular, and worryingly for supporters of Cue Card the last two favourites beaten came from impressive wins in Champion Bumper of last season. That should worry supporters of Cue Card, although there are reasons to believe that things are different this year.


Both Cousin Vinny and Dunguib had serious jumping problems. Cousin Vinny went into the race having given away the Deloitte to Pandorama thanks to unseating, while Dunguib flattened at least 3 flights on the way to facile success in his pre – festival warm up. On the big day, both horses mentioned above failed to sort out their hurdling aberrations and that proved crucial, with a final flight error proving too much for Cousin Vinny and several sloppy jumps and an outside course proving too much for Dunguib.


Cue Card has shown a lot more good signs than bad though. A facile win first time out at Aintree was followed by a romp over Dunraven Storm that sent him into the 3/1 price he is now. An honourable defeat to Menorah (where the field ignoring pacemaker Nicene Creed cannot have helped his chance) didn’t do his prospects any harm. There’s a little doubt over the fact he hasn’t run this year , however, and the poor run of the International third Silviniaco Conti at Wincanton (admittedly not his true form) has knocked off the solid look to that race, as has the poor record of favourites. He’s the clear top rated pick in a race that has cut up a little for him, but is best used as a saver on the day.


As with every festival race, Nicky Henderson has a strong hand to play. The one that’s been getting the most attention is Sprinter Sacre. A dual bumper winner, he scored dirt when failing to see out his race against Frascati Park but has put that right when bolting up at Ffos Las and Ascot recently, impressing with his speed on both occasions. Many fancy him to take a big hand and given a strong gallop, he’ll be right there.

Sprint Son - Likely to improve having trashed a decent horse last time.

                                          
Another Henderson contender in SPIRIT SON has created a huge impression on his two British reappearances, hacking up in a weakish contest at Huntingdon before really showing his gears in a listed contest at Exeter, that has produced festival second in Najaf last year. He barely had to come out of second gear to thrash a first time out winner in Credre Bleu, who had previously won by 10 lengths on his debut. Better ground could bring the best out of him and he’s got excellent claims, regardless of who’s riding him. Nicky Henderson’s record is of no worry here – He’s gone close enough in the past few years
(Amaretto Rose and Binocular for example) and a lot of his horses have been ‘also rans’ so to speak of.


Minella Class would be a rightful contender if sent here, and while a lot of his win in the Tolworth can be attributed towards his ability to handle the testing ground, he’s won on good ground too. The worry would be that the race really isn’t working out from a form perspective and connections seem to be leaning towards the Neptune.


Megastar was an ante post pick for this race and he lost little in defeat givng 5lbs (and a good lead) to Rock On Ruby at Newbury, but it looks likely that any festival ambitions were put out when he was well beaten at Sandown in an ordinary race. The one thing I would say is that he wanted nothing but to go faster and when Jamie Moore finally lost the battle, all hope was gone. He’s not without a chance if getting the gallop he wants on good ground, but I feel that more would be needed anyway.


Zaidpour was considered unbeatable by some in Ireland, when he created a deep impression on his first two starts, routing the field by 12 lengths at Punchestown on debut, and building on that with even more impressive success in Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Since then, the bubble has burst, with a poor round of jumping (also hanging when asked for his effort) when failing to reel in First Lieutenant in a sprint finish to the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle. He was backed again as if defeat was out of the question in the Deloitte, but was just brushed aside even more easily by Oscars Well, who romped home with ease. He didn’t travel at all well, having been the first big gun off the bridle and making hard work of going second. It’s worth remembering that the winner was a class act though, and he was a clear second from Ireland’s best novices. I’d expect to see a lot better for good ground and a fast pace, although I think he can be left alone unless his price drifts a bit (14/1 might be a bit on the big side).


So Young is quoted as short as 12’s after two extremely impressive wins in Ireland, the first coming when cruising home unchallenged by 16 lengths from Harpsy Cord at Leopardstown, and then following up without being pushed at Punchestown. He’s created a deep impression but looks more likely to go for the Neptune.


Al Ferof is one of two Pricewise horses for the race, and it’s easy to see him making a big impression. Following an indifferent start to life over hurdles, where he fell at Cheltenham before pulling too hard in the Challow (faded to finish third), he’s since bolted up in weak events at Taunton and Newbury. The form doesn’t mean much but clearly his racing attitude and jumping has improved a lot and a big run may be coming, although a contested lead may make life difficult for him.


Sam Winner and Rock On Ruby are the other Nicholls representatives prominent in the betting, but with the former (who was turned over in the Finale Juvenile at Chepstow) ready to go for the Triumph hurdle and the latter the Neptune, neither can be considered as ante-post selections at this point.


One horse with an excellent set of credentials may well be Recession Proof. He landed two of his first three starts over hurdles with his only defeat coming at Ascot when chasing home Dunraven Storm. The main reason he’s of interest for this race is the face he’s won the Totesport Trophy, which would be the closest replication as far as the race conditions are concerned towards this, which the hurly burly of a big field at a quick pace with a strong finish at the end. That, along with his still rather unexposed profile, makes him a very attractive proposition although I don’t rate the Tot Gold Trophy as much since the race went down to 15 runners and his win over Dunraven Storm (which he has already improved on) says he’s still got work to do.


Advice

2 pts each/way Sprit Son for Supreme Novices Hurdle (7/1 Bet365, Totesport, Paddy Power, Stan James)