C'est l'heure de la verité. Le Crunch. Or as many have put it, the title, or Grand Slam decider. Win this and England will fancy themselves to win the Grand Slam (even with the hurdle of Ireland in Dublin) and go onto yet another big showing in the World Cup. Certainly for France, victory in London will set up a likely Grand Slam defense as their remaining fixtures see them face Italy before hosting Wales.
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Chris Ashton - England's main attacking force |
England start as favourites after impressing against Wales and Italy, and with home advantage maybe rightly so. There are some impressive looking stats as well. They’ve won nine of their last 11 Six Nations matches at Twickenham, scored 10 tries in their opening two games, four more than they managed in the whole of last year's championship, and have won more line-outs (24) and lost fewer (one) than any other nation in this year's championship.
There are some negative points though. A hapless Italy gave them 6 of their 10 tries and 9 of 24 line out in just one game at Twickenham last weekend, and while France’s defence has leaked 6 tries, changes are already in place to prevent such leakiness again. It’s also worth remebring that 3 of those tries came against Ireland, no disgrace in Dublin.
England, barring one knock could have done without, are in good shape. Lewis Moody will have to wait at least another fortnight to play any part in after a swollen knee ended his chances of featuring as a replacement. The only other change is a positive one in Andrew Sheridan, who missed that game with a bad back, presumably coming to help the scrum.
France are never a team for stability. There are recalls for the legendary Sébastien Chabal, Vincent Clerc, and Dimitri Yachvili, which will need to work the trick as the excellent Maxmime Meddard failed an MRI scan to determine whether he could play, and the World – Class Morgan Parra has been left on the bench, presumably for a late impact.
They’ve been widely disregarded as second favourites but they’ve won two out of two and hard the hardest task of any team in the tournament so far in going to Lansdowne Road to play Ireland. They were outscored three tries to 1 but showed how clinical they can be by taking 6 penalties, which was enough to edge the game.
The fact they only needed one try has been seen as a massive problem by some; But it shows how careful England will need to be if they are to win the game, and many will be breathing a sigh of relief that Meddard cannot play and that Parra is out.
All in all, while England are worthy favourites I can’t help but feel that there’s been an overreaction to the romp against Italy and can’t be backing them against a versatile and classy France side, especially at 1-2. Marc Livermont’s men didn’t impress many against Ireland 2 weeks ago but have made many changes to adapt to the test they'll get at Twickenham and may be able to come away from London with Grand Slam hopes intact.
Advice
3 pts France to beat England (2/1 Boylesports, Sportingbet)
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