6 Nations - Italy v Wales

On a massive weekend of 6 Nations Rugby, we have matches that may already decide the title, as we start with Italy v Wales in Rome.

Wales improved dramatically from a defeat to England (in which they played with credit) when trashing Scotland at Murrayfield 2 weeks ago.

James Hook - Asked to play in his third different position this tournament

Victory over the Scots was Wales' first win in nine, and they were worth every point. Wales had gone 20 internationals since they had last kept their tryline intact but here their determination in defence, where 4 players made double figure tackles as they drew clear of Scotland at Murrayfield (they were 16-0 up at Half time), which is no mean feat considering that both Australia and South Africa have fallen to defeats there in the past year.

They didn’t attack much in Scotland (not that they ever needed to) but if they feel the need to play high risk, high reward" running rugby they can call on Fly-half Stephen Jones and Flanker Sam Warbuton

After losing out in the dying minutes to Ireland in week one, Italy failed miserably to back up that encouraging performance at Twickenham next week, chasing shadows for most of the 80 minutes as they slumped to a 59-13 defeat.

As abysmal as they were last week, performances change a lot over the matches in this tournament and it’s not hard to see them back to their best at the Stadio Flaminio. Wales will be a much different animal to Ireland and Italy pushed them all the way here.

The Azzuri uncharacteristically lost nine of their own lineouts at Twickenham, and if they do anything close to the same it’s going to be a long afternoon; If they can grind Wales down however, another close match is a certainty.

Wales are still in the Six Nations equation (a home game against Ireland is next; Something which you wouldn’t put past this team) and come here on a mental high. They should win but as always, Italy will make life tough for the visiting team and odds of 10/11 about them giving 9 points don’t make much appeal, and there’s more value in backing them to win by 1-12 points, which is close to backing them on the handicap but offers much better value in a game that could easily become a tight contest. 

Advice 

1 pt Wales to win by 1-12 points against Italy (6/4 Paddy Power)