6 Nations Preview 2011

The blog is expanding at a rate of knots and the next are to move into is Rugby, & not a moment to soon, we have our 6 Nations Preview. Enjoy :)

England are favourites, largely based on the impression that they gave in their 35-18 victory over Australia in autumn (their second win over the Wallabies inside three Tests). That kind of form (which let’s not forget, they will not have to repeat to beat sides from this Hemisphere especially at Twickenham) makes them the team to beat but It’s clear that they cannot be relied on to hold their form from game to game.

In their other games last Autumn, they were pretty well beaten - by 10 points on both occasions - by New Zealand and South Africa and have won only three of their last nine games. They have won two of their last three so confidence will be there, but things are going to get much tougher and there’s reason for some concern.

England have the advantage of playing 4 out of their 6 games at home, but Wales, Ireland and France have all come away from HQ with the spoils at least once (all of whom are evenly matched this time around) , and they can only boast four victories in their past 16 away games, three of which were against Italy. Of course they have the talent to beat anybody on their day, but at 7/4 they can be left well alone.

Of the top contenders, the team with the worst record coming into this tournament is IRELAND who followed up their Grand Slam success of 2009 with a runner-up finish last year but wins over Samoa and Argentina were as good as it got as they came up short against the Tri-Nations giants once again - both home and away. The competition here will be much less stiff however, and they have the bonus of facing France at home – I’m toughly confident that they can beat Scotland and Wales at Murrayfield & the Millenium Stadium – And the increased domestic form of Leinster and Ulster in the Heineken Cup and Munster in the Magners League, combined with the depth of their squad, makes them a fearsome side. Add in the fact that they’ve beaten England on four and France on three of their last five trips across the Irish Sea and you have a team that has a serious chance of winning.

Since sweeping all before them in last year's Six Nations to win the title for the third time in five years France have lost three of five Test matches including a massive thumping from Australia last time when seen.

That said, a kind fixture list (their two home games - Scotland and Wales - can't be far short of bankers, and one of their three away games is Italy) will surely help matters and there’s no reason that they can’t beat England at Twickenham or Ireland in Dublin should they be off their best form. Even with a fantastic natural talent through their squad, France aren’t in the best of form and they could just find one or two games too tough.

Scotland only got one more point than Italy in last year’s 6 Nations, but they are the only team come into this year's competition as the only team without a loss on their record in their last two Tests. they've hit a rich vein of form with five victories in six - a run only spoilt by a fair old tonking by New Zealand. They've taken some big scalps though - Australia, Ireland, Argentina (twice) and Samoa as well as the Boks. The fact they’ve not lost in their last two is’nt a mean feat but they are the only northern hemisphere team that can claim a win against World Champions South Africa, which shows just how tough they’ll be to beat at Murrayfield. Add in the fact that the fixture list has been kind ( 3 homes games at Murrayfield and 16/1 begins to look big ) – But two away games at Twickenham (no wins in five) and in Paris (no wins in five) makes it hard to see them winning.

As we all know, in sports more often than not the results don’t tell the whole story (think Arsenal in football), and for no team does that tell the story more truly than Wales. They haven’t won since beating Italy in last year’s tournament, but no way does that tell the whole story. They keep finding ways of losing matches in which they enjoy the greater share of territory and possession, and while that seem to be the trait of a poor side, things seem a lot brighter when you learn that Tri-Nations 'giants' are responsible for six defeats in that seven-match run (let’s not forget that only England and Scotland have beaten them). It’s that capitulation which they will need to avoid against England tonight to set them up on a good run, but at the Millennium Stadium they’ll be roaring and after tonight the general 8/1 lurking around may be a lot shorter.

Italy averaged less than a win a year in their Six Nations history (11 tournaments, seven wins) and having secured a victory over Scotland 12 months they're probably due a blank this season. However respect should be given to the minnows, as they’ve improved with every year and in two to three years’ time, expect them to be going closer and closer to winning a game or more, especially with their club game improving all the time.

For all that we’ve discussed many situations above, it’s clear that there is no outstanding team here, and with no outstanding team, then why should there be a Grand Slam? Boring as it sounds, 4/6 on there being no Grand Slam is one of the bets of the year and shouldn’t be missed.

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