Sunday 20 February 2011

Champions League Last 16 - Copenhagen v Chelsea, Lyon v Real Madrid

After some pulsating ties last week, not least the 2-1 thriller between Arsenal and Barcelona, Champions League knockout football returns this week.

After their FA Cup exit, Chelsea now try and get an advantage in the first leg of their Champions League tie, but FC Copenhagen will prove no pushovers at home and can give the Blues a lot more trouble.

Since coming from behind in impressive style against Sunderland, Chelsea have failed to win, losing 1-0 to Liverpool, drawing 0-0 at Fulham, and being held over 90 and 120 minutes by Everton before going out on penalties. It’s also worth remembering that Fulham would have won but for Clint Dempsey’s prolificacy in the late stages, missing a penalty and them failing to stretch his leg out for a perfect cross.

They were much better against Everton and had a grip of the game, but only at times it must be remembered and they were given an awful lot to think about in normal and extra time by David Moyes’s resurgent toffees. Another clear theme that’s developing is that Chelsea are having much more of a stronghold in games at home rather than away, and the tougher the away trip then the harder they have it.

Most teams from pot one would have fancied their chances against FC Copenagen. The Danish champions and current runaway league leaders (who are 19 points ahead of second-placed Odense in the Danish Superliga at the halfway point of the season) are seen as the soft-touch in the draw. However they’ve already performed with credit in this year’s competition, beating Panathinaikos and Rubin Kazan at home while also holding Barcelona to a draw. They did well in the away leg too, having only lost 2-0 (even allowing for the dominance of the tournament favourites) and they may well have scored if Jacques Pinto had not whistled to put off Cesar Satin with the rebound from Name N’Doye’s volley at his mercy.

Many will point to a lack of a winter break but that does mean that they’ll be fresh while been working hard to get match-sharp and were impressive in beating Norway’s Rosenberg 5-0 in a friendly on Tuesday. If anyone thinks that they fail for firepower, their top two pairing of Dame N’Doye and Cesar Martin have scored 26 league goals this season.

Over in France, Lyon v Real Madrid might have been really interesting but for the arrival of Jose Mourinho, who has added a lot of defensive strength to side that has already had lots of attacking talent.

Lyon cannot be written off; The Stade Olympique is still one of the toughest places to go in Europe and memories of the 1-0 defeat followed by a 1-1 draw in Spain will be fresh in the minds of essentially the same team barring Ricardo Carvalho and Xabi Alonso. They've also steadied the ship at home and are now 3rd in Ligue 1, having trashed Nancy 4-0 last weekend.

The way to go might have have been an under 2.5 goals bet or Lyon on the handicap but given the impressive form that Madrid have shown this season they can’t be backed with any confidence and the game might be best left alone.

Advice

2 pts Copenhagen +1 v Chelsea (11/10 Paddy Power)

3 pts Copenhagen +2 v Chelsea (4/9 Sportingbet)

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