Momentum is always talked about in rugby but an opening
weekend win in the 6 Nations lends itself to a successful title challenge and
whoever wins out of France and England in today’s version of “Le Crunch’ will
have their eyes on a title run. England and France can’t be separated in the betting for
this year’s tournament and one feels that it is only home advantage, perhaps
combined with a touch of the Lions post tour folklore, that sees France as
favourites to kickstart their campaign today with a much needed success
following their worst year on the international stage.
11 tests bought just three wins, and with it, the 6 Nations
wooden spoon for the first time in their history, before a whitewash in the
summer and only one win in the Autumn. To try and paint it in a positive light,
4 of those games were against New Zealand, their destination for their summer
tour, and they could hardly have been strong favourites against South Africa,
but that is about the only leniency they can really be afforded when looking
back at last year’s results.
They barely raised a gallop in last year’s 6 Nations, with
selection problems plaguing Philippe Saint Andre especially with Frederik
Michalak performing abysmally at fly half with Maxime Machenaud at 9 until the
grand slam winning combination of Francois Trinh-Duc and Morgan Parra were
bought in for last year’s game against England, a game they were making the
running in until a raft of changes at the 50 minute mark saw them revert to
their old ways. Today’s new pairing of
Stade’s exciting uncapped prospect Jules Pilssion and Jean Marc Doussain of
Toulouse doesn’t give much of a clue as to what style the French will use
today; Saint-Andre’s biggest worry of a lack of “a frontline” kicker may also
come to bite this evening,
England’s gameplan, despite a raft of injuries that has led
to the debut of Exeter’s exciting prospect Jack Nowell and Northampton’s
sizeable but speedy Luther Burrell today, hasn’t changed much during
Lancaster’s time in charge and while there may be some issues behind the scrum,
the forwards have never been better. In the autumn they had the edge over New
Zealand, forcing a try from a forward maul and gaining more than parity on
numerous occasions while turning around a sloppy performance against Australia
into a convincing win, and the same members today get a chance to hit a France
forward unit missing Theirry Dusatoir amongst it’s ranks. There’s a worry for
many that England’s backline inexperience could cost them dearly against a
French unit that really does have the talent to carve open anyone, cliched’ as
it sounds, but even that is not enough to take the 7/10 dangled out on the
hosts given the likely evenness of the forward battle.
England have won three of their last four tests here,
including the last 6 Nations encounter here in 2012 when Lancaster turned up
with a similarly new back 5 that had today’s flyhalf Owen Farrell at centre,
and of more importance will be how the Saracen links with Danny Care to create opportunity,
with England also mixing and matching. The only thing that can really be said
is that this will be a close one, reflected by handicaps of 3 and 4 points in
France’s favour. The 5/1 on England launching a title challenge with the narrowest
of wins is tempting, although with so much speculation over the backline, maybe
the 4/5 on under 2.5 tries might be worth taking.
Advice
1 pt England to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general)
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