For all the hostilities, as Alun Wyn Jones put it ever so
succinctly earlier this week, it’s not Syria. The latest meeting between Wales
and Ireland, has been given monumental, WWE level “grudge match” status, and it
also looks set to play a pivotal role in deciding the destination of the 6
Nations title even this early in the tournament.
So much has been said – despite the objection of Warren
Gatland – about the last Lions test when Brian O’Driscoll, who broke the record
for Ireland caps last week, was to some, rather unceremoniously left out of the
final, victorious Lions test, and the rivalry between the two significantly intensifying
in the last few years, and whether one’s interested in the story’s sidelines or
not, this looks set to be a big clash on more than one level.
Under Warren Gatland – incidentally the man who gave
O’Driscoll his first cap – Wales have resorted to a hardline, contact driven
style of rugby sometimes known as “Gatlandball” that has proven to be essential
in seeing them go to a World Cup semi final (beating Ireland amongst the way)
and also in taking the last two 6 Nations titles, with a Grand Slam in 2012,
and that approach hasn’t and won’t change with Gatland having pointed to
Northampton’s defeat of Schimdt’s former province Leinster in the Heineken Cup
as a model for potential victory.
Joe Schmidt’s Leinster side were the best side and played
the best rugby in Europe during his helm, but anyone who followed their
exploits will know that he’s not afraid of a direct approach either and can
boast one of the best balanced forward units in the 6 Nations.
With a heavy pitch a likely possibly and a chance of rain
during the game to add to the wind, it’s likely that this is going to be a
heavy contact game of the sort that Ireland lost when a miserable afternoon saw
a litany of handling errors from the men in green against England in a game
that came down to the kicking of Owen Farrell; it’s hard not to imagine a
similar game tomorrow if there’s rain afoot and a heavy pitch.
Despite a dry game being more likely to suit Wales, who can
call upon Alex Cuthbert and George North along with the dynamic and forceful
contrast between Scott Williams and Jamie Roberts in the centre, a wet weather
game is no bad thing for a side with as much carry in forwards as backs. Ireland
have gone big with the backline, with O’Driscoll and D’Arcy partnering for a
record time at the expense of the lighter Luke Marshall and the rest of the
backline unchanged from their dominant win over Scotland indicating a big clash
of playing styles in Dublin.
The return of Sam Warburton indicates a bruising backrow
clash which is hard to call even with the absence of Sean O’Brien - Chris Henry and Peter O’Mahony combined to
find effect last week – while the return of Paul O’Connell is a godsend despite
Dan Tuhoy’s fine game. Adam Jones has struggled with the new scrum laws, a
needed balance given how tightly matched Cain Healy and Gethin Jenkins look in
the scrum
Ireland are marginal favourites in what’s essentially a
‘pick em game and picking between either side isn’t exactly attractive. Ireland
were promising against Scotland but too much credence may have been given to a
win with a flattering margin given the Scot’s wastefulness out wide after much
early possession and obliteration in all areas of the forward game, while too
much has been made of Wales’s below par performance against Italy, with not
enough credit given to the Azzuri for a fine all round performance.
With improvement expected from the Welsh, and taking in mind
their 5 wins on the road in the 6 Nations, there was a temptation to take the
5/4 to cover a long term stake on Ireland for the championship but the 4/6 on
under 4 tries with Hills may be a safer option if the weather is as poor as predicted
and both sides resort to forward power and tactical kicking. Given that Ireland
have led in 15 of their last 21 games going into halftime, and been outscored
in 15 of those second halves, the 8/1 on offer with Ladbrokes for Ireland/Wales
is worth having onside on value terms; Consider the draw (as a back to lay) and
1-5 point winning margins closely too given how evenly matched the sides are.
Advice
1 pt Under 3.5 tries (4/6 Ladbrokes)
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