It’s a week without 6 Nations Rugby but fans seeking some
top quality action to fill the gap can look towards Super Rugby’s South African
conference, which begins with a Saturday double header before Oceania’s
conferences start next week. Below, we give a verdict on the contenders and
their seasonal prospects.
Bulls (Best price: 9/2 Bet365 Last Year: 1st in
conference, 63 points, lost semi final 23-26 to Brumbies at home)
Last year was close to perfection for the Bulls. The
archetypical South African side, rock solid at the set piece, dominating in the
contact area of the game, sharp off the tee and near unbeatable infront of
their own fans. With a power game up front and behind the scrum, they were
fancied by many to make it to the final but were shocked by the Brumbies’s Tevita
Kuridrani, who’s late try saw the Australians sneak into the final.
The Currie Cup was a
disaster, with the Bulls second last in their premier domestic competition and
falling far too often to indiscipline.
The off-season has not been kind to their prospects. A mass
exodus of players in the summer has robbed them of some of their most
experience and relaiable players, including Zane Kirchener who moved to
Leinster, Morne Steyn, their flyhalf and main goalkicker since 2004, and his
halfback partner Jano Vermaak. In all, of the 15 players who left, 10 went to
overseas clubs, amongst them; Chiliboy Ralepelle, Juandré Kruger, Wilhelm
Steenkamp, Dewald Potgieter, Jacques Potgieter, and Ruan Snyman.
This does give new opportunities to some however. A
potential 10-12-13 combination of Handré Pollard, Jan Serfontein and JJ
Engelbrecht has rich potential for improvement as a trio and brings the pace,
skill and movement to trouble any defence.
At eight, Pierre Spies gets a chance to push for the
Springboks No.8 Jersey after a long injury absence, which will be harder than
ever given South Africa’s superb 2013. Ex-World Cup winning springbok Victor
Matfield returns in the biggest story of the South African conference
off-season and one of Super Rugby’s biggest stories this year, and while one
can only guess his level of performance, he looks likely to be the key leader
on the field. At 9, Francois Hougaard and Piet Van Zyl will both need to be
quick in both mind and thought in supplying ball to Pollard.
There Is also the significant positive of having a
completely different draw from last year, avoiding both the Crusaders and Reds
while the Chiefs, Brumbies and Blues also have to come to Loftus Versfield in
the kindest schedule possible, a godsend given the circumstances. That gives them potential hope, but after
such seismic changes across the board, the Bulls will do well to reach the
playoffs.
Cheetahs (Best Price: 7/1 Paddy Power Last Year: 2nd
in conference, 54 points, lost qualifying final 15-13 to Brumbies away)
Last year was a revelation for the Cheeaths. A long time fan
favourite for their wonderful play, a change in gameplan last year saw them
change spectacularly, snatching the sixth and final playoff place thanks to an
awesome five game winning streak - before then going down in heartbreaking
style to the Brumbies after a missed conversion saw the finalists sneak through
on home turf.
More kicking from hand – a huge increase based upon last
year, as they kicked more from hands than anyone but the Stormers and a serious
tightening up of defence – they conceded 100 less points on last year’s total –
changed the challenge they presented towards opposition
Where the Cheetahs let themselves down last year was with a
patchy home record, the worst of any of the top six teams, but it is interesting
to note that they’ve not lost a large amount of players – like the Bulls, for
example – with the most notable departure definitely being Robert Ebersohn,
whose 8 turnovers last year were only part of his contribution, and Piet Van
Zyl.
Defence coach Michael Horak feels that his departure will
not hurt the team unduly – they conceded just three tries through the pre
season while he was present – band there are plenty of positives to look
forward to. Adrian Strauss has been largely ignored with Bismarck Du Plessis’s
superb 2013 but he’s still a fearsome presence at hooker and the Cheetahs’
backrow presence should still be able to keep them present and a threat in most
games. They can also boast Willie Le Roux, arguably South Africa’s quickest
back, and Shaun Venter, one of the more exciting unknown factors. A huge amount
depends on how Johan Goosen goes from a long layoff, but if he brings his best
game, then there’s no doubt’s capable of sparking the backline and that could
see the Cheetahs below the top 6, although a sustained run like last year could
be beyond them.
Sharks (Best Price: 11/8 SpreadEx Last Year: Last Year: 5th
in Conference, 48 points)
Last year was a write-off for the Sharks from beginning to
end. Losing as many games as they won, they were only above the Kings in the
South African conference and were 6 points off the playoffs at the end of last
season behind the Cheetahs. So why are they being talked of as South Africa’s
best hope for a title tilt and red hot conference favourites?
A large part of the reason is a change in management. World
Cup and Tri Nations winner Jake White, who took the Brumbies to the final last
year, is now director of rugby and will be backed by the reassuring presence of
John Smit as CEO and Brendan Venter of Saracens, hoping to change the attitude
that was a factor in their no showing last season.
The Sharks started last year quite powerfully, infact losing
only once in their first seven games before then only winning one of their next
eight, but a huge spate of injuries played a big part in that dreadful run and
there’s reason to think that things should turn out differently this time
around. the fitness of all their stars can’t be guaranteed but a much better
top to bottom structure should prove vital. White took the Brumbies from 13th
in 2012 to beaten finalists last year, making a side that now provides much of
Australia’s backline, and he has some fine players to work with.
Tendai Matawaira and Bismarck Du Plessis are two of the best
front rowers in world rugby and also two of the best ball carriers while Jannie
Du Plessis makes for a monster combination.
The return of Ryan Knakowski, whose injury last year did so
much to destabilise their season, is a massive positive while the return of
Lourens Adraanse and Eitheen Ooshthizen gives more cover to the forward pack.
Springbok Willem Alberts is yet another power machine with ball in hand. At
lock, Pieter-Steph du Toit’s future looks very bright still and behind the
scrum, the 10-12 axis off Patrick Lambie and Frans Steyn (another back from
injury) is one of the best in the tournament and SP Marais’s pace is a good
addition from the kind. With JP Pietersen hopefully fit for another year there
seems to be a good balance between the pack and backs that was missing last
year.
Their draw hasn’t been kind to them – they must take on the
Brumbies, Crusders and Blues away from home – but they should be able to master
their South African opponents and make the playoffs in style.
Stormers (Best Price: 5/2 Skybet Last Year: 3rd
in Conference, 50 points)
Our tip for the title last year, the Stormers were many
people’s pick for the South African title last year following semi finals in
2011 and 2012 but were let down by inconstancy last year, seeing them out of
the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.
An inability to produce performances like beating the Chiefs
in their first home game, a bonus point win over the Brumbies and 30-13 win
over the Bulls at Newlands more than losing back to back games at the Bulls and
Sharks is to blame for that, along with a lack of the try bonus points that
rove so crucial towards getting the last playoff spot in what’s always such a
tight competition.
An inability to score tries has been the crux of the team’s
problems for the last year, with the conservative style of the team (the Stormers kicked more from hand than
anyone else) being criticized in the same way that Henekye Meyer’s Springboks
were at the beginning of his time coaching.
An ever difficult defence to breach doesn’t seem to have
been enough for them past the playoffs and it will be interesting to see if
they can change anything – with players such as Resurgent Springbok Jean De
Villiers, Gio Aplon, Cheslin Kolbe, and Peter Grant (having returned from a
year out with a serious ankle injury) in their backline they all always present
some sort of threat – but it remains to be seen seen fi they’ve actually improved
from last year and a hellish schedule, by far the worst of the South African
side, could see them chasing the leaders early with trips to the Crusaders,
Chiefs, Brumbies and Reds all horrendous trips and their shortages at lock with
Etzebeth, De Kock Steenkamp and Carizza all injured at the time of writing
we’ll look elsewhere for our winners.
Lions (Best Price: 50/1 Last year: Not in competition, beat
Southern Kings in two legged playoff)
The Lions only played 160 minutes of Super Rugby last season
but slipping past the Southern Kings in a playoff sees them back in the
tournament for the season. Off the field turmoil however, makes their chances
long term seem pretty redundant.
They still have no sponsor, which has seen a lot of players
understandably move on to what might be called greener pastures (literally)
although loan agreements have allowed them to retain talents such as Fly-half
Elton Jantjies, who has Springbok game time to his name at such an early age
and will provide much of the spark to the backline and the pace too.
Lock Franco Van Der Merwe will give the experience and
leadership to a squad that seems to be lacking in experience and so will Warren
Whiteley (captain), but the reality is that they will struggle a lot against
anyone and don’t look to have much hope.
VERDICT: The Sharks’ have never tasted the glory of a Super
Rugby title but this has to be one of their strongest squads and under Jake
White, everything seems set for a big push for the title this season. With one
of the strongest packs – especially in the front row where their three
internationals promise international set piece quality – and one of the best
10/12 axis, they look in the right shape for a bold post season challenge and
should be better prepared to cope with any injury crisis. A tough set of trips
midway through their season will test their title, but by then they could have
enough of a lead by then to seal a South African conference that looks well up
for taking. The Bull’ mass exodus could see this being a season of transition
for them while also unbalancing the squad, there seems no reason for the
Stormers to improve upon last season’s, third place, and the same could be said
for the Cheetahs. The 11/8 offered on Jake White’s men landing the conference
seems very fair and is taken with aplomb and the 7/1 on them landing the title
is also of interest given their international presence.
Advice: 8 pts Sharks to win South African conference (11/8
Spreadex)
1 pt
Sharks to win Super Rugby (7/1 general)
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