South Africa v Australia

The hype and toxic fallout from the second Ashes series has still not rescinded with Kevin Pietersen’s expulsion from the England squad but anyone still preoccupied with that farce is likely to be missing what could be the test clash of the year – South Africa v Australia.

Australia are third in the ICC rankings but with India seemingly unable to travel (and well beaten by New Zealand in five of their 6 matches, including the first test) this has the feel of a Number 1 clash all over with the world’s two best bowling attacks going head to head for one. 

The rarely seen South Africa’s stock has risen yet again with a 1-0 win over India that was far more impressive in it’s manner than the scoreline, with India having looked in serious control for much of the first test before AB De Villers and Faf Du Plessis pulling back a serious India lead in a thriller that ended unsatisfactorily for a home side that was seen as having lost because it did not win with victory in it’s sights. 

The now gone Jacques Kallis, who played a big role along with Dale Steyn in winning the second test comprehensively, leaves a hole in the batting and bowling departments that will be hard to fill, although Ryan McLaren and Wayne Parnell have both shown considerable promise at 6 and 7. More crucial for this series will be how a battling line up arguably one man short now fares against what can comfortably be called the second best bowling attack in the world. 

One of the leading figures in 2009's 2-1 win here, Mitchell Johnson's 37 wickets in the Ashes almost defied belief and his rage and outright aggression was a deeply impressive transformation for an often wayward bowler but the support from Ryan Harris - who played a starting role as the second best bowler on wicket taking figures while staying fit for his first full series in years - and Peter Siddle especially compounded an Australia bowling attack that constantly streamrollered their English counterparts whenever they weren't being chocked into submission - no England batsmen scored above 300 test runs all series. 

However facing down South Africa will be very different. Johnson's aggression was so effective thanks to an English batting lineup unable to handle his pusedo-body line tactics in any way shape or form, a weakness shown in the first test that was always seized upon thereafter. 

Ryan Harris's masterful swing bowling - if he stays fit - is a huge threat and Peter Siddle has gone well under the radar but South Africa's top order won't be as easily backed down by strong armed bowling and are plagued by none of the same problems that besieged England from both a technical and physiological perspective despite the absence of Kallis in the middle of the order. With him gone, extra responsibility is placed on the shoulders of AB De Villers, who was South Africa's lynchpin against a middle order collapse in the first test and driving force behind a comeback in the chase; With Hashim Amla not at his best recently and Graeme Smith facing the new ball, he could be the best choice to be top batsman for South Africa.

Australia were not given a contest against a self destructing England bowling attack that was led entirely by Stuart Broad with Jimmy Anderson a shadow of his previous best, and Graeme Swann so badly exposed he retired early into the series. With Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and Vernon Philander to face, things will be vastly different and one would expect much less charity from  them than England, who let some very good positions slip on a number of occasions. 

Shane Watson's absence from the first test robs them of sone bowling power while problems at No.6 - Phil Hughes or Shaun Marsh could step into the void left by George Bailey -and this will be a huge debut for Alex Doolan. There is raw scoring power in their batting lineup - David Warner top scored in the Ashes with some sensational hot streaks and Chris Rodgers gained a rich vein of form even in the absence of form from Michael Clarke - but it remains to be seen how they cope with far better bowling here than the consistently self defeating strategies England employed three months ago. Brad Haddin was consistently the gap between success and failure in the winter and at 12/1 with 493 runs coming in at seven, makes big each/way appeal to do the same if the top order's exposed so frequently in this series. 

The last test series South Africa lost was against Australia, in 2006, but it has been 5 years since anyone best them to the punch and while Australia's bowling especially has to be respected the home side, playing two tests at traditional fortresses - In Centurion, South Africa have won 14 from 18, losing just once, and In Cape Town they have won 18 from the last 24 - look a step above anything they've faced and present a far stiffer challenge on all fronts. Australia's batsmen were not tested throughout the Ashes however and any chances of an away win tests on their top order producing the golds against an attack with the world's 3 best bowlers. Nathan Lyon's spin has been an underrated asset here but there is a counterpunch in Robin Pietersen and a sustained attack may take advantage of the opportunities England had at several times during the winter. The hosts can start a series slowly but a warmup game is something the Australians don't have to their advantage and A 2-1 home win makes a lot of appeal with such potent pace attacks on both sides; South Africa can justify 4/5 series favouritism with that as well.

Advice 

3 pts South Africa (4/5 BetVictor)

1 pt 2-1 South Africa (9/2 general)

1 pt each/way Brad Haddin top Australia runscorer (12/1 general) 

1 pt AB De Villers top South Africa runscorer (7/2 Sportingbet)