The two teams that everyone talks about when thinking of
Spain and the Champions League are Barcelona and Real Madrid but while they’re
still in the competition it would be foolish to forget about city neighbours
Atletico Madrid at this early stage of the competition despite their last 16
first leg against AC Milan tonight not being as easy as the market would think.
Much like last year, AC are the massive underdogs to go
through – Atletico are a best of 2/5 to make it to the quarter finals – but
even with Milan in worse shape than they were a year ago, this first leg could
be closer than the markets suspect, with Madrid 5/4 favourites to take a lead
back to the Calderon two weeks later.
Milan’s Champions League recent knockout record is rather
ordinary – they’ve won only two of their last 12 games at this stage with seven
losses – and have been knocked out at this stage in four the last 5
competitions – but at home they have proven hard to beat in the Champions
League.
I their last 5 Champion League games in Italy, only Lionel
Messi has scored for them and in rennet season they have a recent win and draw
against Barcelona to their credit here while they also held Real Madrid to a
draw in recent seasons here.
Sustained support for Atletico Madrid has seen them come
down to 16-1 from a best tournament price of 40’s following a deeply impressive
group stage when they took 16 out of 18 points with the only draw coming at
Zenit St Petersburg when Diego Simeone made many changes. Joint top with
Barcelona and Real Madrid in La Liga on 60 points – an astonishing 2.5 points a
game – Madrid are set to bypass their points tally 76 from of last season.
Originally they were only marginal favourites for this tie
but Milan’s own woes this season – despite a small resurgence since the return
of Clarence Seedorf have seen them
harden into odds on favouritism for tonight’s tie which is understand given the
seasons that the two have had and it’s hard for one to argue with those odds
even given Atleico’s recent wobbles.
A 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Real Madrid has given
concern to some that they might be feeling the effects of an intense season, as
they did in the league last year, but Milan are not in the same class and they
needed plenty of fortune against Ajax to make it to this stage. Atletico are
rightful favourites to make it to the latter stages, but the draw might be the
best value at 12/5.
Advice
1 pt Draw (12/5 BetVictor)
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