History says that France win the 6 Nations the year after a
Lions tour and an opening day last gasp win against England augured well for
their prospects this year and they should be going to Wales with two wins from
two starts after facing Italy.
Some schools of thought would suggest that France were lucky
to beat England on the first week, when a tired and broken up backline – Luther
Burrell was caught on the wing by the fresher Dimirti Swarveszki bursting
through midfield in the buildup to Gael Fickou’s late try – was split open
after a complete and utter turnaround, while both early tries came with very
kind bounces of the ball, but there were many positive signs that suggested
Saint-Andre’s side might have a better side than last year.
The early ferocity of their forward play in that first 15
minutes engineered their two try scoring chances with Yannick Nyganga
especially generating numerous chances off turnover ball in an opening period
that they largely dominated and their attitude in not giving up despite losing
a 13 point lead was admirable, especially given some of their performances at
this time last year, and a 6/2 split of forwards and backs fortunately worked
perfectly in a game with a very high amount of ball in play time.
Even accounting for their traditional slow starts, Italy’s
performance against Wales on the first week looked extremely promising after a
disappointing Autumn series, but the gloss has been taken off that showing
after the Welsh’s dreadful capitulation to an admittedly impressive Ireland
side yesterday. However the application of the Italians in the set piece and at
the breakdown especially was as impressive as we’ve seen from them on the road
and handicaps of 23 were made to look rather large especially in the second half,
the traditional strength of the Welsh and weakness of the Italians.
Also encouraging was the swift and competent attacking play
that a young backline, led by Michele Campagnaro, produced with Tomaso Allen
looking as good then as Luciano Orquera did last year when Italy beat the French
23-18 on the opening weekend, and if Italy’s forwards gain parity then there is
the talent behind the scrum to score points.
Saint Andre is likely to ask for the same approach based on
swapping Flanquart for Maestri and keeping the rest of the pact, apart from
giving Dimitri Swarveski a much needed promotion to the starting XV, while Hugo
Bonneval gains a deserved first cap after Maxime Medard disappointed last week.
It’s interesting to note that Gael Fickou and Maxime Machenaud were left on the
bench for more physical players before speedier counterparts changed the game
and the same approach seems to be deployed here, which could put Italy to the
sword in the second half. Italy gave up
14 penalties but if showing the same defensive application that they did last
week then a handicap of 19 will take some overcoming. Chancing the 11 and 16-20
winning margins looks to be the best option
Advice
1 pt France to win by 11-20 points (23/10 Paddy Power)
1 pt France to win by 16-20 points (5/1 general)
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