Since the 6 Nations started the clash between Italy and
Scotland has often been the wooden spoon decider – and barring big improvements
between the two last year, it is the same this time around with both sides
aiming to avoid the wooden spoon yet again and Italy can put Scotland in danger
of finishing bottom yet again.
Both these two sides looked as if they were making
considerable progress last year when finishing third and fourth respectively in
this tournament thanks in part to the major struggles of France and Ireland,
with the latter’s injuries and two yellow cards going a long way towards
helping Italy to their first win against Ireland at the end of last year’s win
on the final weekend while Scotland themselves also took advantage when beating
the Irish on the third weekend.
This year things seem to have reverted to type however.
Scotland were made to look ordinary against Ireland when made to pay for a
first half were they didn’t make the most of some significant opportunities but
it was their scoreless, 20-0 capitulation at the hands of England at
Murrayfield two weeks ago that has really set the alarm bells ringing. After
the game Scotland’s performance was seen to be so poor that there were serious
calls for a review of their 6 nations position in major newspapers, incredibly
ignoring the fact that they were third last year, with some suggesting that
second tier teams would seriously fancy their chances against Scott Johnson’s
beleaguered side had some periods of note in Ireland at least but against
England were lucky to come away with just a 20 point defeat to their name and
their lack of application in any faucet of the game, in the pack or the backs,
was truly dire for the level.
The changeover to Vern Cotter should be a source of excitement
for Scots at the end of the season but the changeover is becoming convoluted
and the omission of Kelly Brown for Chris Fusaro didn’t work last weekend and
the dropping of Scotland’s only decent player last week in David Denton seems
to be cutting off their nose to spite their face.
Italy’s problems away are the next big problem for Jacques
Brunel to solve but in two games so far they’ve impressed with their effort and
creativity at Italy and France, putting up a very solid comeback against Wales and
Ireland after tries that took the game away from them. A new, young backline
with Tomaso Allen at its helm is creating opportunities a plenty, as shown by
their display against an admittedly below par Wales, while the 30-10 scoreline
in France’s favour two weeks ago very much flattered the French with Italy
dominating long periods of the second half before eventually notching their try
late on.
Returning back home, it’s quite exciting to see what Italy
will be capable of given their increasingly impressive home record in this completion
and with Scotland not having won here since 2006 and arguably in their worst
shape since taking their last wooden spoon, it’s hard not to consider Italy
worthy favourites. They should also have the potential to take the game to the Scots
on a forward level, having bested France in the scrums, lineout, and penalty
count when they last played, and they are more than capable of surpassing a
handicap of three points if brining improved form to the table.
Advice
4 pts Italy -3 (10/11 general)
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