They say that defeat on the first weekend of the 6 Nations
is a disaster but despite a sickening sucker punch in France, England can get
their title ambitions back on track with a win against Scotland at Murrayfield.
England had everything but the result in Le Crunch last week, a game that in
the end was decided by the packs but actually saw the most ball in play action
of the weekend, which had a profound effect upon the game’s ending.
Gael Fickou’s late try robbed England of a comeback win
built upon a good 40 minutes of domination upfront and some of the best
backplay seen under Lancaster (whether that’s a compliment to the team or not
is for you to decide) with 18 unanswered points, but they look better equipped
to face the very different problems that await them in Edinburgh tomorrow.
A ferocious start from the hosts saw England 16-3 down at
one point with two tries that had no small amount of luck thanks to horrendous
bounces, although the failure to take the kickoff from Joe Launchbury (who had
a stellar game) and Jack Nowell (who to be fair, also improved greatly), while
turnover ball and the failure of Alex Goode to push out Hughet – along with
dreadful defending for the fortunate bounce – saw them down and while their
comeback of 18 unanswered points was arguably the best team performance of the
weekend, the 6/2 split of Phillip Saint Andre’s bench in favour of the pack
combined with a loss of momentum from England – understandable given that the
ball in play time was nearly double that of an average test match – eventually
saw them falter infront of the line as Swarvezki and Fickou combined for the
winning try against a tired Luther Burrell on the wing from centre thanks to
Johnny May’s injury.
On all evidence, Scotland pose very little of those
problems. It’s fair to assume that they can provide more resistance than when
being blown away by Ireland at the Aviva Stadium but their obliteration at the
hands of the Irish pack is an ominous sign given England’s strength in the
forward department. Everyone from Billy Vunipola to Joe Marler was superb and
if the Scottish pack doesn’t transform their level of intensity then they could
be obliterated at Murrayfield tomorrow. The removal of Kelly Brown is a
perturbing response even if Chris Fusaro’s promotion is long overdue.
Scotland made plenty of chances in the first half against
Ireland but failed to make the most of their opportunities and will do well to
make such inroads against England, who aren’t likely to offer such cheap
possession. The loss of Sean Maitland to injury will not help on that point,
and the conditions will not prove conductive to the counter attacking rugby
that was so successful for Scott Johnson’s side last year, even though Matt
Scott returns at 12.
The likely wet conditions along with a heavy, infested, and
already damaged pitch are far more likely to suit an England side with a huge
share of heavy duty carriers and a large superiority in the forward ranks – for
comparison, this is the same side that won in miserable conditions in Ireland –
and Lancaster’s men are more than capable of adjusting their game to suit the
conditions.
France undid the good work of Lancaster’s men but on all the evidence Scotland don’t have the
same power or skill as they do and England’s favouritisms is well deserved.
Some might be wary of a less than exemplary recent record at Murrayfield in
recent times but the gulf in class between these two sides should be telling
and an England win by 1-12 points looks a sound bet, along with the 4-5 on England
winning both halves. For those who think that the weather is sure to result in
a dreary game, the 6/5 on no Scotland try is worth looking at, as is the 12/1
on no tryscorer.
Advice
5 pts England to win by 1-12 points (7/5 Bwin)
1 pt England to win both halves (4/5 Ladbrokes)
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