Superbowl XLVIII

It’s the perfect game. The two best teams in the league facing eachother for the title, one having the best offence, and one the best defence. The unstoppable force against the immoveable object. Superbowls don’t come much higher on quality than this, and it’s fair to say that tonight’s game between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks could be called a tight one beforehand.

Since the playoffs, these two have been at the forefront of nearly all lists for the Superbowl – indeed Denver have been many people’s favourites and tips for the title at the beginning of the season, while the no.1 seeding advantage that Seattle earned at the beginning of the playoffs was supplemented with two wins at Centurylink Field.

Having lost the divisional championship to the eventual winners of the Superbowl last year in the Baltimore Ravens, the Broncos have come back with e vengeance, headed by the rewards John Elway is still reaping from the big gamble to take on a now veteran Peyton Manning following a litany of surgeries and injuries. The 37-year-old four time league MVP is in the finest form of his career according to the n umbers, coming here with regular-season records for passing yards (5,477) and touchdowns (55). Helped greatly by Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker, giving him a frightening amount of options that have bedazzled defences everywhere this season.

The New England Patriots found this out only too brutally, in the AFC Championship game, with a mix and match defence, a long term problem it would seem - since 2010 that have the unscrupulous honour of being the worst team for allowing 20 yard plus plays and 3^rd down defence; The Patriots were 19th in yards allowed per drive and 10th allowed in points per drive – being torn apart by Manning as he threw for 450 yards and two touchdowns in a dominant win that was flattering to Tom Brady and his men given a late fightback.

Taking apart the Seahawks defence, one that has allowed 14.4 points and 273.6 yards on average this season, and allowing only 6 conversions in 23 conversion attempts for their 3^rd down , the best in the league, will be an entirely different matter. The well titled and extremely confident “Leigon of Boom”, who were at their boisterous, aggressive and most athletic best when seeing out the NFC at Centurylink field last week with two late picks off Colin Kapernick to see out an uber tense NFC Championship, including Richard Sherman’s move on, and post game comments regarding, Michael Crabtree, As much as the media bangwagon – Trivia Fact: US TV used the word “thug” 652 times on Monday – has had it’s fun, it’s clear that even the Broncos and their myriad of running options are going to be put to the test today.

With the two so tightly balanced in defence and offense, there is a huge amount of pressure upon Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who turned 25 in November, although nothing in his performances have indicated that the 5ft9 playmaker is a real spot of weakness and while they’ve attracted little or no attention for their attacking prowess the mobility of Wilson will be a stark change for the Broncos defence after taking on the relatively stale and static Brady.

It should be noted, in the great hype of attack v defence, that the Denver defence has improved quite markedly, with the “pot roast” have blocked the route through the middle markedly, but Lynch’s ability to turn on “beast mode” right when needed gives confident that he ran for 259 yards in the post season, averting fears that Seattle’s blockers have taken a dip in form at the same time as Denver’s defence have limited opponents to less than 100 yards rushing in 5 of their last 6 games.

Calling how the game will go is an inexact science to say the least but if the post season is anything to go by then Denver are likely to go hard early, a strategy that has worked well for them given the big leads they’ve amassed. It has been widely assumed that Denver will take the win despite the fact that they’re just 2 point favourites, but the opposing factors of the two teams – Denver’s defence and Seattle’s versatility in modes of attack – and the Seahawks are capable of blocking Manning enough to bring the game into Wilson and Lynch’s reach. The Broncos have beaten their rivals by a combined 37-3 over the first three quarters in their two play-off encounters to date, holding off late rallies from San Diego and New England on their way to comfortable victories. It seems fair to make a stasticial guesstimate that the Broncos will be leading at halftime and with our preference for the Seahawks, the Broncos/Seahawks HT/FT at 8/1 with Bet365 looks to be the best value of the game. A point spread of 2 almost doesn’t feel worth bothering with but with five of the last 6 games having been decided by one score or less we’ll take that over the straight win,  and combine it with a 1-6 point win for the Seahawks on the basis that 11 of the last 16 Super Bowls have been decided by 7 points or fewer.

Advice

3 pts Seattle Seahawks +2 (20/21 Paddy Power)

1 pt Seattle Seahawks to win by 1-6 points (4/1 BetVictor)

1 pt Denver Broncos/Seattle Seahawks (8/1 Bet365)