Wales may have the post Lions question hanging over them
before this year’s 6 Nations but they should start their bid for a third
hat-trick in style when facing Wales at the Millennium Stadium today. Much has,
and will be said about post tour fatigue, but the stats paint an efficient
picture of the huge gap between the two sides.
Warren Gatland’s men have won the last two 6 Nations’
tournaments and tasted defeat once in that timeframe. Strength behind the scrum
– Wales have the strongest back three in the tournament and arguably the
strongest centre pairing – has proven to be a tremendous source of strength,
but the individual quality in forward areas that gives them such drive has also
been a central part of their success under the strategy of “Gatlandball”.
Their defensive effort however, underlines their success in
the biggest games. After a slow starting defeat against Ireland last year, they
went 358 minutes without conceding a try and haven’t been prevented from
crossing the whitewash in their last 10 6 nations games.
Last year, they were the only team to carry any fluency
through the tournament from beginning to end, and while England’s lack of
attacking points left them vulnerable to being pipped at the post there’s no
doubting who was the best team over the tournament.
Italy had their best ever 6 nations with two wins for the
first time in tournament memory, one coming in a thrilling contest when they
genuinely outplayed France on the opening weekend, while they did take England
all the way before beating Ireland on the last weekend. Jacuqes Burnel’s side
had record levels of possession last year, indicating a switch away from the
power game that has been so common through the last 10 years to a more
expansive style that has genuinely been followed through – as we can see with
the promotion of Tommaso Allen to 10 with Luciano Orquera on the bench – and
that has seen progress although Italy’s open style has been exploited with some
huge defeats, not least to Australia in the Autumn, and the gulf in class between
these two sides is demonstrated by Italy’s 5 point loss to a tired Argentina
side that had previously been bulldozed by Wales the week before.
Wales have been seen as slow starters and a poor first
weekend record would underline that but even in their only defeat they scored
22 points against Ireland and a handicap of 20 points is a fair line, as is a
points line of 30. Wales were dominant 29-6 winners in the reverse fixture last
year and 24-3 the year before, so should be looking at a similar margin of
victory here. With concerns over a slow start, the handicap isn’t a lump job
for us, but Wales’s second half blitzes have underpinned their greatest
successes and Italy, after the break, were outscored by 14 points in Rome last
season, leading us to the second half handicap of -11 with Corals if
pushed. More value however, could be found
in the winning margins, with 16-20 and 21-25 making ideal ditching appeal.
A simpler bet is just for Wales to be the highest scoring
team of the weekend, with France clashing against England and Ireland facing a
tougher test, albeit at home, against Scotland.
Advice
1 pt Wales to win by 16-20 points (5/1 general)
1 pt Wales to win by 21-25 points (11/2 Hils)
3 pts Wales to be highest scoring team of weekend (11/10
Ladbrokes)
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