Blues (Best Prices: 6/1 Ladbrokes Last Year: 3rd
in Conference, 44 points)
The Blues’ woes on the road was the main factor in them
ending up 22 points behind the Chiefs, but for Sir John Kirwan’s side it was a
considerable improvement on 2012 and they can be hopeful of more progress this
year with a new management structure, much like the Sharks, helping bring
through talented young players.
With Sir Graham Henry amongst the top brass, it was no
surprise to se the Blues release 4 new All Blacks last year as Steven Luatua,
Charles Piutau, Francis Saili and Frank Halai has stunning seasons both on the
domestic and international stage and contributed greatly to some big moments at
Eden Park while an experienced core of players such as Piri Weepu proved instrumental
in proving a good platform. Amongst him was Charlie Faumina and also the now
absent Rene Ranger, who has moved to Montpellier.
However his replacement on paper at least – none other than
Ma’a Nonu – is evry bit his equal although he has shown disinterest in the past
on the domestic stage. Jackon Wilson provides good cover and Pita Ahki gives
some bolster to the centres, although the real bolster is marquee signing Benji
Marshall at flyhalf, keeping Piutau at 15 where he starred so boldly last season.
With such attacking talent the Blues should present an even
bigger threat to all this season, but it’s interesting to note the decisions
made to recruit very experience All Blacks. Tony Woodcock, Tom Donnelly and
Jerome Kaino have over 100 caps for the All Blacks with three of them returning
to the Blues and improved experience and game management should see a stronger
end to the season which could see them make the playoffs. The starting locks
are a worry despite the return of Triggs to the side, and it remains to be seen
how the engine room will function against more pack oriented teams, but they
should feel confident about getting even closer to the playoffs today.
Chiefs (Best Price: 10/11 Ladbrokes Last Year: 1st
in conference, 66 points, Champions, winning final 27-22 Brumbies)
The Champions for the last two years, nobody is in doubt
with the Chiefs being the team to beat this year. Only the fourth team to land
back to back Super Rugby titles, their composure, execution and skill were still
too much for anyone to handle last year as shown by the fine margins of their
semi final and final wins, both infront of their Waikato faithful.
What makes their win even more impressive was the numerous
backline injuries they suffered throughought the season, with a small spate
before their crunch semi against the Crusaders, a game they won by just one
point with a magnificent defensive effort, and nearly all the major backline
figures at one point found themselves out of action. Their versatility, as
shown in the final, turning to a pick and drive effort when 22-12 down with
time running out, is also something that can be matched by few others in the
competition and a crucial factor in the tight playoff games that few can ignore
as well.
Most of their success comes from their astonishingly
talented backline. Tim Nanai-Williams started last season in explosive style
and brings power, pace and a turn of foot in while Robbie Freuan, taken from
the Crusaders is an excellent centre option. Millis Muliana started at fullback
in the win over main rivals Crusaders and with Aki, Marshall, Anscombe, Lower,
Horrell and Robinson to name a few, they should be able to manage resources at
the drop of a hat for star player Aaron Cruden to supply. Partnering with Tawera
Kerr-Barlow the halfback pairing have been without equal in Super Rugby at
times, and certainty during the post season with Cruden himself playing a big
part in the semi final and final with a try against the Brumbies.
Upfront, leadership comes from Locks Liam Messam and Brodie
Retallick provide go forward and power for the side and they boast a strong
ball carrying influence in Ben Tameifuna, a future All Black in Rhys Marshall
and a strong influence in Jamie Mckintosh to make a strong front 5 and event
the departure of Frtiz Lee to Clermont is not a great loss given the quality of
his replacement in Kane Thomson.
Their counter attacking power – according to Opta the Chiefs
scored more points and tries than other sides, despite averaging the least
amount of time in possession of the ball – looks to be their greatest weapon
but the all round quality they possess makes a third title a distinct
possibility.
Crusaders (Best Price 15/8 Ladbrokes Last year: 2nd
in conference, 60 points, lost semi final away to Chiefs 20-19)
For Todd Blackadder the instruction is simple. Win the
title. Actually pulling it off? Far harder than that; It has been 5 years since
their last title, and the amount of near misses is a record that reads like few
others. They’ve won seven titles, made 10 finals, and have yet to miss on the
last 4 since 2001. In recent season, it has proven to be the Chiefs that have
been their arch nemesis. Following a defeat to the Reds in the final, they’ve
lost out at the semi final stage to the winners for the last two seasons, both
in Wakaito, by a combined total of four points, on both occasions coming within
6 points of their regular season total – enough to change an away semi-final
into a home semi final. Under Blackadder, they have been knocked out by the
competition winners on no less than 5 occasions.
The key this year is going to be finding a way to make the
jump ahead of the Crusaders in either regular or post season – one presumes that
they are capable of beating any other side on their day with good luck – but
how?
An incredibly slow start for a team of their stature – they
won just three of their first eight – scrapped their league finishing position
last year and saw them travelling again post season.
Their 5 departures, two of them to their arch nemesis Chiefs
and all but one them to New Zealand conference rivals, are quite notable; The
absences of Tom Donnelly, Shane Christie, Robbie Fruean, Telusa Veainu and Tom
Marshall will all leave a mark.
The biggest positive is in their depth at flyhalf. With Dan
Carter on a sabbatical, Colin Slade’s return from the Highlanders gives a
quality backup to Tom Taylor and Tyler Bleyendaal, tow future prospects for the
All Blacks 10 shirt, ensuing creativity not to be in short supply. Magical No.8
Kieran Read is the star of the show, fresh from a record breaking year where he
was the world’s best player as voted by the IRB, while Richie McCaw, if
carefully managed, can make a mark once again. Isarel Dagg was disappointing in
the league last season truth be told, but he is still a class act to be
respected and Zac Guildford’s last season can be a big one if he keeps his eyes
on the prize, but at the end of the day, it’ll be all or nothing once again.
Highlanders (Best Price: 20/1 Ladbrokes Last Year: 5th
in conference, 44 points)
According to the stats the Highlanders wouldn’t have been
the side to watch in 2013. Eight straight losses to start the season, 55 tries
conceded, a points difference of 122 and a finish just above the Kings, Super
Rugby debutants. It didn’t sound or look very impressive, but anyone who
watched them last year will say different. With a backline that had the likes
of Ben Smith – yes, that Ben Smith – and Tamaiti Ellison some of the best rugby
in the competitions was played under the roof in Otago including amongst
others, the “offload of the century” from Tamati Ellison for one of Ben Smith’s
many tries while the now gone Ma’a Nonu, Colin Slade and New Zealand halfback
Aaron Smith all teamed up to astonishing effect at times in the 9/10/12
channels.
The problem is that it’s hard to see things changing a huge
amount. The Blues have recruited superbly and they, in tandem with the Chiefs
and Crusaders, are the only New Zealand sides worth focusing on with regards to
the post season, and the Hurricanes still look to be well infront of them and
will be helped by the loss of Ma'a Nonu, Tony Woodcock, Hosea Gear, Jamie
Mackintosh, Andrew Hore, Colin Slade, and Tamati Ellison.
Brad Thorn is still there and should step up to lead the
side and Smith has been one of a few to talk about something on the line of
a “a smaller, more focused squad”, but
with the reduction on quality it’s hard to see too much change and the
Highlanders may be down in the dumps once again.
Hurricanes (Best Price: 10/1 Ladbrokes Last Year: 4th
Conference, 41 points)
Inconsistency was the bane of the Hurricanes last season
after getting past a difficult start with three wins on the road following
their home win against the Crusaders in round three and they may find
themselves further away from the top three this season as well.
Their defence turned out to be their Achilles heel – they
conceded nearly 50 tries and 457 points – although with the loss of Cory Jane
for a season hitting them very hard it was understandable that they didn’t have
the same potentency out wide that they had the previous season with Andre
Taylor also not as prolific as he was when bursting onto the stage in 2012.
Similar to the Highlanders, an entertaining team with a lot
of potential to impress and the ability to put on some of the most entertaining
rugby in the competition, but a leaky defence that does let them down and
prevents them from high achievement on a consistent basis.
The likes of TJ Peranara at 9, the swashbuckling, pacey all
action figure that seems essential to success in this competition and Beauden
Barrett, whose cameo at the end of the test match of last season when New
Zealand grand slammed their 4 Nations opposition told onlookers why so many
rate him even more highly than Aaron Cruden in the race to takeover from Dan
Carter and Conrad Smith is widely seen as the world’s best centre by many.
In regards to up and coming talent, Wellington’s good season
in the ITM cup is hugely encouraging and the best of their prospects going that
way may well be Marty Jones, set to start at fullback against the Sharks today
as part of a team shorn of some of it’s best talents on the road, but best
talents or not, they may have to settle for fourth best.
VERDICT: Both the Chiefs and the Crusaders will play a
central part in the destination of the title and the battle between them for
the top conference spot should be fiercely contested but the winners for the
last two years can take the top spot once again. Injuries blighted them at one
stage last season but yet more quality has been bought in and it’s hard to
argue with them having the best backline in the competition with yet more added
to it in all areas. With the strongest away record too, they avoid games at the
Sharks and Stormers when going to South Africa and that may be the difference
between the two although their superior squad depth and head to head record can
also be trusted to win out. The Blues should once again get closer to the front
two with an improved squad and a unit of management beginning to gel properly
while the Hurricanes’ defensive issues and the Highlanders quality drain could
see them well adrift at the end of the regular season.
Advice
4 pts Chiefs to win New Zealand conference (10/11 Ladbrokes)
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