They say to save the best till last and this year’s world
championships time trial has the potential to be one of the races of the season
with a whole host of top contenders for the time triallist’s rainbow jersey
this year that could be separated by just seconds. Situated in the spectacular
setting of Firenze, the course needs little explaining. A pan flat affair
barring a small drag early on that is 58kms long; The typical time trialist test
of power and timing.
Three men are predicted to dominate today’s time trial, the
same three men that have dominated the time trial scene through the last three
years between then, and with them, the winners of 7 of world championship time
trials in the last decade.
Tony Martin saved his season last year with a superb win in
this by just 5 seconds over an extremely testing course to save a year that had
been previously ruined by injuries including a cracked wrist, Martin prevailed
in a tight duel for the gold medal despite the extremely undulating and testing
course playing totally against his huge power to weight ratio for a man who
regularly turns a gear ratio in the high 50’s. Since then, he has crushed his
opposition on all but a few occasions, winning seven time trials this year, all
by comfortable margins. With this pan flat, time trial course the perfect place
for him to deploy those same tactics to the letter, it’s understandable that
he’s a hot favourite for the hat-trick of titles today, with another world team
time trial – albeit by a whisker – under his belt from Sunday.
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| Bradley Wiggins takes the final corner on his way to a huge win in the Tour of Poland, beating Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney by 57 and 1.14 respectively |
Whether that makes him a bet at 11/10 is another matter. Sir
Bradley Wiggins (left) in in the same shoes that Tony Martin was in a year ago,
hitting his peak form at the end of a year, which has been mostly a write off
for him. Wet weather, cold and poor descents cost him in the Giro, and injury
has since prevented him from taking part in the Tour De France, but in that off
season the Olympic gold medallist has gotten back to full fitness and added
7-8kg to the light, slim frame that he used to prevent losses going uphill.
The benefits of this were seen in his tour de force at the
Tour of Poland, where he crushed the opposition in a tour de force that saw him
beat Fabian Cancellara by nearly a minute and Taylor Phinney, second last year
in a tense duel by just under 6 seconds, by 1.14 on a rolling course.
Wiggins’s tour of Britain win, while not proving anything
new, was a fine confirmation of his strength and condition and his attacking
performance through Knowsley Safari Park’s wet and slippery corners showed a
strong mental foundation and excellent preparation for today’s test. Some might
argue that he can’t generate the pure power to weight that Martin will be able
to pull out today but at the same time he’s prepared specifically physically
and mentally for this test and the extra muscle bulk he’s put on should prove
beneficial. While at his Tour De France weight – albeit with Cancellara and
Martin injured and below their best – he crushed the opposition in the Olympic
field in a dominant performance and when at his peak, has posted time more than
quick enough to seriously challenge Martin on a flat track and on value grounds
at least, is the bet of the two at 7/4.
Fabian Cancellara, a four-time world champion, is reported
to be focusing mainly on the road race by many but has been overlooked far too
quickly in the light of a wonderful season which saw him dominate the spring
classics, including a hat trick of E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Harelbeke, the Tour of
Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, before another Swiss time trial championship and a
steadily progressive Tour of Poland and Vuelta a Espana which have seen him
take on a slimmer, leaner frame that saw him put in impressive shifts for red
jersey winner Chris Horner on some of the most brutal mountains Spain had to
offer.
His leaner frame proved a big help when taking the time
trial in Spain – by no small margin of 37 seconds over Martin hat came on a
much more complicated course than today’s – including a long, even if it was a
low percentage, uphill drag – but even on today’s course one has to consider
him more of a threat than the prices would suggest and the last of the 8/1 with
Bet Victor is worth having onside for value reasons.
Taylor Phinney, second last year by just five seconds, is the
only other one given a realistic chance by the bookmakers and he does have the
ability to pose a time today that could contend for the win. However he was
behind both Wiggins and Cancellara in Poland and while he’s finding his
seasonal best, he has tougher opposition than last year to contend with today
in his fight for a medal.
Any number of players could take advantage of a slip up or
mishap with the front four today, including names like Richie Porte, Alex
Dowsett, Rohan Dennis, Adrian Malori, Slyvain Chavanel and Sevin Tuft, but they
all have a mountain to climb to make any headway against the ‘big four’, in
what should be a race to savour.
Advice
1 pt Bradley Wiggins (7/5 Hills)
1 pt Fabian Cancellara (8/1 Bet Victor)
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