It took three straight days in the Pyrenees, but the Vuelta
was blown open and blown well and truly apart when after two successive days in
the high mountains that has seen the main players stay relatively close, the
climb to Formigal finally saw Vincenzo Nibali crack for the first time in this
race, with the top climbers have have supported him so far all burnt off by
sustained attacks from Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez, who eventually
caused the Italian to crack in the last three kilometres, with him losing 22
seconds on the rest of the contenders, meaning that he has a lead of less than
half a minute on Chris Horner, who like others, gained several seconds, with
Alejandro Valverde just 1.14 back and Joaquim Rodriguez 2.29 off the lead.
With today’s test to Pena Carbega and the Angilru still to
come, anything can still happen and with so much up for grabs all cards will be
on the table, and today we are likely to see an explosion amongst the big
favourites, breakway or no breakaway.
And if the main suspects come up the climb within sight of
the main leaders, then few could be
better placed than Joaqium Rodriguez. Thankful to have a man in the break on
Monday to pull him along when others were struggling, he was the outstanding attacker amongst the big
favourites, ending up taking three seconds and above out of everybody and
finding the form that saw him light up this race last year and take a podium of
the tour this summer.
Rodrgiuez is one of four that can realistically think about
taking the title – although it will take something truly special for him to
overturn the gaps to his rivals – and today we are surely going to see
something from him on Pnea Carberga, one of the Vuelta’s most decisive
finishes. With three categorised climbs, including the Alto Del Cordial, which
ended Valverde’s challenge in 2008, before Pena Carbega, time can be gained and
big positions made.
The climb is just sort of 6KM but averages 9.2 percentage
and hits 11, 18 and 20% ramps nearing the top, with a lung bursting final km
that has a easiest gradient of 9%, a perfect Rodriguez climb.
Here in 2011 Chris Froome announced his arrival on the big
stage by outsprinting Juan Jose Cobo, although he went onto be beaten by just
seconds overall, and the year before, Purito put 20 seconds on Nibali in just
800 metres, having used his favoured tactic of waiting until the end of the
short, sharp lethal climb and then kicking hard in the last kilometere.
Rodrgiuez has grown far stronger through the race this year,
much like Valverde, and was the strongest GC man apart from Nibali and Horner
to begin the Pyrnenees, and looked as if he could have taken more time on
Monday still, so is worthy favourite to take the win on a day where a break
should go, but will have to be filled with expert climbers to take the win.
Nibali himself cracked on Monday but had an iron like gap on the race
beforehand and will have to follow any attacks closely to defend red properly,
so is likely to be present with the main action. A past winner of this event,
he handles the super steep gradients as well as anyone and should have
benefitted from a rest day after pulling the lead group over the two days, and
if back to prime form, could show his talents once again.
Advice
2 pts win Joaqium Rodriguez (11/4 Boylesports)
1 pt each/way Vincenzo Nibali (10/1 general)
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