Vuelta a Espana - Stage 14 (Baga - Collada de la Gallina)

This Vuelta a Espana has now taken a proper shape after two full high mountain stages and the race’s only individual time trial, and our outright tip Vincenzo Nibali sits in a prime position to take his second grand tour of the season, with three riders less than a minute behind him and the rest more than two minuites down. No grand tour is quite like the Vuelta, however, and with the most brutal test of all still to come and today’s venture into Andorra the first of three summit finishes that will have a huge influence on the outcome of the race.

 

Today will be a fast and furious mountain stage with a saw-blade 155km taking in 4,000m of climbing and well over 50km of uphill in the second half of the race alone. The early test is arguably one of the hardest of the Vuelta, with the 26.7KM Port d’Envalira a mammoth affair that could start chucking riders well out the backdoor with the col d’Ordino (8.8% at 4.9%) and the Alto de la Comella (4km at 5%) still to come before one of the hardest finishes of the tour, the Gallina, 7.2km at an average of 8% that has slopes of 15% and a lowest percentage of 4.5% - and that comes 2km into the start.

It’s a day for the best climbers to come to the fore once again, and of those, Vincenzo Nibali offers the best value. Favourite beforehand, the Giro D’Italia winner has stayed fairly quiet and is building towards the World Championships in Florence, but on the fourth summit finish he sprinted clear of rest of the elite group to gain 12 seconds on some of his main rivals before a strong time trial gave him red by the tidy margin of half a minute before today.

Now clearly coming to the fore, today’s slopes are ideal places for him to launch another attack to take time, and even if he chooses to follow wheels with tough tests set to come over the next two days, expect the likes of Alejandro Valverde, Chris Horner and Nicolas Roche to keep him on the edge enough for him to be in the leading group and the 8/1 with Paddy Power going three places is the value for us.

Joaquim Rodriguez – who lives in Andorra for large parts of the year, trains on some of these roads and roads close to them, and should enjoy finishes like these that offer big, constantly percentages and relatively short length – is a worthy favourite, although he needs to strike soon for a red jersey assault.

Advice

2 pts each/way Vincenzo Nibali (8/1 Paddy Power)