Sunday, 22 September 2013

European Football - Sunday 22nd Sept

With the Champions League back in the fold, there’s a feeling that the football season has gotten into full swing, and today is arguably the biggest day of the season with clashes between title contenders in Italy, Holland, France and England from morning to night.


Inter Milan went from title contenders to tragic laughing stocks last season in an injury horror show of epic proportions, but seem to have a bright future and can keep pace with the best of Serie A with victory at last season’s Serie B Champions Sassuolo this morning.


The Nezzauri finished last season in a lowly ninth but upto halfway, hsd been leading contenders in a title race that would eventually become rather one sided in Juventus’s favour, with Inter being destroyed by injures that took away more than 11 first team players and saw the team’s weak defence collapse on several occasions. This, and many other things about a side that had been rapidly ageing after their treble success of three years ago, has been changed by Walter Mazzari since his arrival. The arrival of Mazzari favourite Hugo Camapangro from Napoli has given the back four an entirely new feel with Juan Jesus and Jhnathan both benefitting hugely from his presence, while Ricky Alvares and Fredy Guarin have both had strong start to the season, supplying Rodrigo Palacio with plenty of firepower.


Exceedingly comfortable in their two wins against Genoa and Catania, they took the lead against Juventus and may well have won had they not suffered a slight lapse in concentration which allowed the champions to euqliase and if contuining in the same vein, they have too much quality for last season’s Serie B Champions, who have lost all three so far and let in 4 in their only home game.

Soon afterwards, we have the Rome Derby, one of Europe’s fieriest games, with Roma at the top of Serie A and unbeaten in three hotly fancied to take that to four in four against a Lazio side, who barring a heavy thumping against Juve, haven’t done too badly for themselves with two wins from three including a first half blitz against Chievo that saw them cruise to a 3-0 win.

Roma are favourite thanks to their home advantage and top of the table position, but the gap between the two sides looks big given how little has generally separated the pair over the past two seasons and the fact that Roma have only picked up one point in their last four Serie A derbies.


A better bet from a value position might be for the bookings points. Since the 2011/12 season the booking points totals have come upto 100, 85, 130, 120 and 95 in league games, making the odds against on 90 or more bookings points quite attractive when one notices that where have been nine red cards in the last  six derbies. The 17/2 that both sides have a player sent off is tempting – it’s happened twice in the last three seasons – with the 15/8 that Lazio lose a man for the 4th straight season also making appeal.


Later on, Napoli can stretch their unbeaten run against AC Milan and stamp their title credentials on Serie A, and look to be some of the best value in Europe to do so. Best of the rest in Serie A last year, Napoli have spent the massive fee PSG gave them for Edison Cavani in style by adding a whole host of new options to give the squad more depth, chief amongst them being ex Madristas Gonazlo Higuain and Jose Callejon, both of whom were central in their midweek win over Borussia Dortmund, following on from three Serie A wins to start the season.


In the ex Madrid pair, up and coming superstar Lorenzo Insigne, and the superb Marek Hamsik, Napoli have a whole range of attacking threats being completed by Christian Maggio and Juan Zuniga coming from deep and a solid centre pairing of midfielders Valon Behrami and Goekhan Inler. It’s lead to a much more blanced side that have put in some superb performances in Bentiez’s short time there, and it spells trouble for a Milan side that haven’t hit their straps fully yet and are still suffering from injuries in key areas. Milan were in trouble for much of their 2-0 win in midweek over Celtic and face a side of much great quality here in attacking areas, so take the 2/1 that Coral dangle on an away win.


Italy’s title race could have as many as 7 sides in it, but France’s is expected to be the two horse race situation that has taken much of Europe and PSG can take the lead in Ligue 1 back from Monaco in the headline French clash in Paris this evening.


Monaco have made an excellent start to this season domestically, as one would expect given the huge investment that Russian oligrach Dmitry Ryboloev has pumped into the club, bringing in Radmel Falcao, James Rodriguez, Joao Moutiiho, Ricardo Cavalho and Eric Abidal in a summer spending splurge that has left them as the biggest title contenders to PSG.


And while they’ve been unbeaten this season and go into this clash top of the table, they face a PSG side that, with the considerable advantage of playing infront of their fearsome Parisian army, has begun to hit their best form after another spending splurge for the second summer in a row.


Their second half performance in the Champions League was their best of the season, turning what had looked set to be a close game into an absolute rout, and the difference in fluidity and creativity from them and their previous performances in the league, which started with two draws in rather stuttering fashion.


New centre back Marquinihios has settled in very well alongside Thiago Silva to make a rock solid centre back pairing that will present Monaco with their stiffest test yet in attack, while their midfield of Moura, Matuidi, Veratti, and Pastore could overrun Monaco with Moutinihio he only international Ranieri can call upon to make a difference there, and with Cavani and Ibrahimovic fitting together well so far, they have the extra edge in all departments for us today.



Advice - Serie A 


6 pts Inter (5/6 Bet365) 


0.5 pts Both sides to receive red card in Roma v Lazio (17/2 Paddy Power)


1 pt Lazio to receive red card (15/8 Paddy Power)


2 pts Napoli (2/1 Coral)


Advice – Ligue 1 (PSG v Monaco)



3 pts PSG (5/6 general)

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