10 days in, and with the first rest day of this Vuelta just
around the corner to come, the race is really beginning to hot up and take
shape. It was a case of the right team, right scenario, and wrong man for us
yesterday as Joaquim Rodriguez repaid the favour to Daniel Moreno for his 2011
win and the little Spainard obliterated his rivals to take the race lead by one
second from Nicolas Roche, giving Katusha a dream day at this race once again
and the home fans the dream result they wanted – good things all round it seems
– and also raising the possible question of a GC attempt for Moreno, who
quickly denied such plans, saying only of the battle for red
The day’s profile is another rolling one which will see the peloton
hurtle towards the Monachil, which will create an elite selection before the
real finish. 8.5KM long, it averages 7.5 but has several sections in double
digits, including ramps of 11%, 12%, 10.6% and 12.5%, which will have all but
the very best on the limit. With the sharp sections near the top an ideal place
for the flyweights to get away and the wide, well surfaced roads offering an
ideal chance for teams to set a proper pace, expect to see the action kick off
early here.
Then, after a descent with a small upward kick, we have the
Güéjar. Officially put down as a 15KM climb, the reality is totally different.
The first 8 KM are easy enough, and present an ideal scenario for high tempo
pacesetting if any team feels like it, before a big descent and then one of the
most brutal sections of the this year’s entire tour. After 8.5KM, from then
until the finish – barring a small slop at 10k of -3% - there are three
kilometres of entirely double digit percentages before a killer ramp of 18% -
the only slightly easy thing is a slightly downhill run to the line, a declious
irony on the day like today.
Today will be the first proper GC sorting out day, with
brutal percentages and serious length, and all sorts of tactics are possible.
So far we’ve seen some riders stay fairly anonymous in the battle for red, but
anyone with designs on the finish will have to show themselves today. Nicolas
Roche and Leopard Konig have won the two long summit finishes so far, but with
the greatest of respect, they have both been helped by top GC men marking
eachother, something which won’t happen today – not to mention the softer
percentages in comparison to what’s going to be tackled today and onwards.
Konig lost 47 seconds yesterday but Roche showed his
improvement by losing out of the red jersey by only a second, taking 4th
at Valepenas where he had been eighth on his last two tries. At 33/1, he’s an
extremely tempting choice once again as an each/way bet for all that the
‘favourites’ will be coming to the fore now.
Daniel Moreno has been the lead man for Katusha so far, but
has pledged his support to Joaqiun Rodriguez, who took a little time yesterday
but has an ideal opportunity to launch his challenge today. One of the
strongest on Valepenas De Jaen, only Pena Carbaga could be considered a better
finish for him, with so many long, extended, double digit ramps today over a
length of 8.5KM, and we should see the best of him today as he’s only 30
seconds off Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde, and only 56 seconds off his
team mate. Today gives him the percentages he wants and the time to launch a
big attack, and at 5’s he’s the most appealing of the favourites.
Alejandro Valverde was just behind Purito and does make
appeal today with Movistar likely to try something on both climbs, but Purito
is likely to enjoy the proper percentages more and could get away when the
going’s hardest. Nibali is interesting here at 14’s, given that’ he’s climbed
well so far without doing anything big, losing only 9 seconds yesterday and
this remaining the best placed of the market leaders beforehand. However with
his mind firmly on the world championships – or so he says – it will be
interesting to see just how much attacking intent he will show – with a time
trial to come after the rest day and so much climbing still left, it’s going to
be interesting to see if he decides to do anything but follow the moves today
and despite a tempting 14’s it’s likely he’ll try and stick with, rather than
follow, the big attacks.
Advice
2 pts Joaqium Rodriguez (5/1 Bet Victor)
1 pt each/way Nicolas Roche (33/1 Boylesports)
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