The first day of the high mountains in the Vuelta a Espana,
as predicted, separated the men from the boys and gave us an elite set of
climbers who now look to have the race between them, with the top 5 - including the three market leaders beforehand
– separated by one minute and forty seconds. Very few people believed that
Chris Horner of all people would win the hardest stage so far, or be in the
lead by nearly a minute going into the first rest day, but the American’s
attack up the Hazllanas was without equal, ending the day 50 second ahead of Vincenzo Nibali, who himself showed his profession by sprinting clear of the rest of the
elite to finish a cleae second, more than 10 seconds clear of the rest,
including Valverde, Basso, Rodriguez, Pinot and Roche.
Today’s time trial around Tarazona, as the only individual
one of the race, is another vital moment in the battle for red and one that
will bring around big changes, standing at 38km, a long distance for the
flyweight climbers who have dominated so far. Like every time trial in this
grand tour, there is a categorised climb, but at 4% for 9km, the Alto del
Montcayo is a power to weight ration test after a fairly rolling start, and the
exposed nature of a course taking in a route below a range of wind turbines will
place exceptional pressure upon positioning for extended periods.
It’s a course for the time trial specialists rather than the
climbers, and limiting losses will be the main aim for those going for red,
while Vincenzo Nibali will be looking to take a big amount of time after a
strong ending to the first week. Focused on the world championships, his strong
showings suggest that he aims to give his all in the battle for this red jersey
and standing in a fine position – in relation to all but Chris Horner – he may
well have designs on the red jersey. Nibali’s time trialling used to be a
weakness – it made launching a serious challenge for the Tour De France
impossible – but much dedication, specialist help, new equipment and specific
training have changed all that and he used his strength against the clock to
rubber stamp his Giro D’Italia win, taking fourth in the long time trial over
55km that involved an extremely technical descent and harsh finish along with
extended flat periods. With the battle for the win today looking to be between
Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara, the two best modern time trilaists of recent
times, Nibali has a realistic chance of taking third ahead of team mate Tanel
Kangert and Italian specialist Marco Pinotti. Martin and Cancellara have met on
19 occasions during their career, but the only occasions where the Swiss has
beaten his rival since the 2010 words has been for a puncture in the Tour
Prologue of 2012 and a broken wrist in that same race.
In flat time trials, his seven victories have come with
margins of 1.07, 6 seconds, 17 seconds, 16 seconds, 40 seconds, and 12 seconds,
and with Martin have showed form equal to Cancellara’s – both have been
extremely impressive with the world time trial coming up – the clear bet is the
German, even at 4/6.
Advice
6 pts Tony Martin (4/6 Paddy Power)
2 pts Vincenzo Nibali top three finish (6/5 Skybet)
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