Football’s transfer season is famed for the instability that
one usually never sees amongst rugby teams but this has been a summer of much
change within the RaboDirect Pro12 that leaves an open battle for the
Championship in a season of uncertainly and challenge for many of the top
Celtic players.
Favourites amongst them are Leinster and Ulster, who were
the 1-2 in regular season and fought out a tight final which saw Leinster’s Joe
Schmidt get a fairytale send off with Leinster winning a second trophy in two
weeks in Schmidt’s last game while ending a run of three successive final
losses.
Both sides are seen as certainties to reach the playoffs
again, with 1-6 and 1-3 being offered on them making the playoffs again, but
Glasgow are more than capable of pushing them even closer than last year and
are well worth an eachway interest for regular season honours and worth backing
to win the big prize overall.
Third last year, the Warriors were only two points behind
Leinster and defied the same summer injury crisis that seems to have reared
it’s ugly head once again, before pushing Leinster to two points in their away
semi final, one they were arguably unlucky to lose with a missed Stuart Hogg
kick costing them a place in the final, and they look set to go at least as
close this year as well despite injury problems at the beginning of this
season.
Gregor Townsend has done a magnificent job steering the club
towards silverware and he can low lay claim to one of the most balanced sides
in the league, with Lions Stuart Hogg and Sean Maitland adding searing pace to
a backline which can also lay claim to Scottish centre pairing Sean Lamont and
Alex Dunbar and Canadian speedster DTH van der Merwe. Niko Matawalu will miss
the start of the season after the Fiji international broke a bone in his foot
but Henry Prygos has broken onto the international scene and there’s plenty of
promise in Ali Price to fill the slot until his return. Ryan Grant’s long term
injury is a big blow but there is ample forward power in Josh Strauss and Al
Kellock, while Richie Vernon is a perfect replacement for John Barclay.
The Irish pairing of Ulster and Leinster will have a big
effect on the destination of the title and the pair should go close to the
league title although with both sides there is good reason to believe that they
might not perform quite as well as they did last season.
Ulster won the regular season thanks to a burst of 14 wins
from their first 15 games before a long year, the absence of Stephen Ferris,
challenging on two fronts and an insane
began to take a heavy toll on them. The improvement that the side has
made in just one year was evident in the way that they beat Leinster at home
and away before their extremely close final defeat, one year on from their
Heineken Cup trashing – they were sixth in the league that season.
With Ferris present for this season, many young recruits
coming through – especially the likes of Stuart Olding at centre where there’s
plenty of competition for places – there can be hope for another title and
grand final charge but many of their wins in the early part of the season were
close shaves and they will be subject to far more international demands. The
prolonged absence of Ruan Pieenar has become a problem for Ulster at times as well,
while a hellish run-in does them no favours, especially if they’ve sealed a
home playoff spot before time, and they might be knocked off top spot this
year.
It’s a new era for Leinster this year with Joe Schmidt
having finally been promoted to the Ireland job, Isa Nacewa retiring, and
Johnny Sexton having moved to France.
New coach Matt O’Connor’s pedigree with Leicester is one of
the highest quality, while implementing a playing style across he backline
shouldn’t be too much trouble given the similarities between the two clubs’s
personnel, although any bedding in time needed would be understandable.
While Leinster’s squad is known for depth, the loss of
Nacewa is a big hole to be filled in terms of the gamechanger department and
the marquee addition of Zane Kirchener from the Blue Bulls makes little sense
given he similarities to Rob Kearney, although it does have them a backup for
one of the vital team players in the side.
Sexton’s departure cannot be underestimated – he’s Europe’s
premier flyhalf and one of the best in the world – but in Ian Madigan Leinster
have someone capable of starring the side. A star turn whenever he played in
the side last season – if at full back, centre or flyhalf – Madigan bought all
kinds of threat from every situation, breaking the line, shaping play,
developing a partnership with the centres much like Sexton did in his early
days, and proving to be a fine kicker.
However many solid backup men have left, including the likes
of ) Heinke van der Merwe, Andrew Conway, Fionn Carr, Damian Browne, Jamie Hagan
(London Irish) Mark Flanagan, Tom Sexton & Eoin O’Malley, and Leinster may
take towards the end of the season to peak when the likes of Leo Cullen,
Richardt Struass, Cian Healy, and Brian O’Driscoll – in his last year – peak.
Munster had a dreadful season on paper last year but should
come on hugely for their transitional year with Rob Penney at the helm and
could present a stiff challenge this season. Putting much effort into their
Heineken Cup campaign, where they showed huge promise in shutting down
Harlequins and then pushing Clermont to a 5 point defeat at home, Munster could
only muster sixth last year but should be much better acqauited with Penney’s
gameplan now and could benefit from a much more settle season than most.
Ian Keatley showed enough promise last year to suggest that
he can take over from Ronan O’Gara and his backline has been given a boost by
the arrivlal of Andrew Conway from Leinster and the Stomrer;s Gerhard van den
Heever. Elsehwere, they have Lions test starters at scrum-half and second row
in Conor Murray and Paul O’Connell, a South African World Cup winner at
tight-head in the powerhouse BJ Botha and one of the brightest young talents in
European rugby on the wing in Simon Zebo, not to mention the extremely
promising backrow talents of Tommy O’Donnell and CJ Stander to provide
altheticsm from the backrow. Adding to Peter O’Maohny’s huge engine, they will
be major contenders if able to make the playoffs.
Chief threats to that will be Ospreys, but there are several
issues at the Liberty stadium. Wales’s big contribution to the Lions tour means
that Alun Wyn and Adam Jones, Richard Hibbard, Justin Tipuric and Ian Evans may
have their workload managed and Kahn Fotuaili’I’s move to Northampton robs them
of the Pro 12’s best scrum half – and breaks the partnership between him and
Dan Biggar. While they should still do better than a Scarlets side shorn of
George North, Owen Williams, Andy Fenby, Tavis Knole and Morgan Stoddart,
making them a value punt to be the best Welsh side over the regular season at
8/13, they may miss out for the second season.
Advice – Regular Season
2 pts each/way Glasgow (9/2 Ladbrokes)
10 pts Glasgow to make the playoffs (4/7 Bet Victor)
3 pts Munster to make the playoffs (8/11 Bet Victor)
6 pts Glasgow to finish above Ospreys (8/11 Boylesports)
5 pts Ospreys best Welsh side (8/13 Bet365)
Advice – Winner
1 pt each/way Glasgow (6/1 Sportingbet)
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