The end of another success stacked season for British
cycling is here with the World Championships Road Race set to end a season
which has given many magical moments as always, but there are good reasons to think
this today’s Firenze spectacular might be amongst the best of them. Normally comparable to one of the hardest classics
of the season, this year’s parcours is a brutal, challenging and exciting
course that promises to be one of the hardest in years, with the
Firenze-Firesole circuit likely to be tackled in rain and thunderstorms.
The race is taken in two parts, with the most crucial shown below in detail. A 106.6km ride to Firenze
which has two climbs which are unlikely to fore a selection unless raced at
areal pace, and then the 10 laps of Firenze, where there are the two defining
features of this race – the Firesole climbs, which is 4.3km at an average of
5.8 percent, which doesn’t seem to fearsome before one sees the extended ramp
for the last 2km that is never lower than 6.8% and has a section of 9%, twisty,
narrow, technical descents, and the Via Salvati, a brutal 600m ramp of 10.2%
that has a section of 16%, followed by a wide, fast descent. Don’t forget that
bump uphill before the finishing line too that isn’t categorised or highlighted,
as that’s 10% and a little launchpad before the final flat run in.
Raced 10 times, and at the pace that some of the more
climbing oriented teams – Spain, Colombia, Great Britain, and Italy – will look
to enforce – then this race could see a lot of riders unable to cope with the
high tempo and the first thought when looking at this was that the climbers and
the extreme classics hardmen are the groups to focus on.
Another factor to focus on has to be the length of the race.
At nearly seven hours long, and with 295m of vertical gain for each lap, a
total of 3,600m – like an Alpine Stage – stamina is going to catch many out,
and weaken many for the last crucial laps. With 272km of racing, it’s fair to
say that very few will be lasting the full effort today.
With so many key contenders today, I’ll just list my
personal bets and why before looking at the rest of the field. Over the last
two years, Vincenzo Nibali (red) has reached a new level of performance and after his
finest season yet, where he dominated the Giro D’Italia and was a fine second
in the Vuelta Espana – even if that fashion in which he was overturned by
veteran Chris Horner was a little disappointing – he looks ready to make a bold
bid in his home nations, having already enhanced his status with his dominant
Giro win here earlier in the year.
We already know that he’s imperious going uphill, but his targeted
preparation for a parcours that looked made for him makes him irresistibly tempting.
The Vuelta’s hardest climbs were just too much for him but he was a clear
second and in those three weeks will have acquainted himself well with the short
sharp climbs and high percentages that will play such a big part – while we
know that he’s probably the best descender in the peloton – a skill he used to
great effect in the Giro when many crumbled. His time trial improvements now
mean that he can launch big solo attacks – something that will be needed today
with the run in of 2km pancakeflat compared to the rest of the course – and in
a strong enough Italy team for support, he should have a platform to go for
home in the last laps.
He’s not got the greatest one day record, but his
performance to take Tirreno-Adriatico from Chris Froome by lasting with the
elite selection in filthy conditions with the three time ascent of a climb
arguably far harder than today’s in the same conditions expected for the finish
was a perfect classics style performance and the testing nature of the route
makes this different than most one-day tests. At 16’s, an each/way bet is a no
brainer.
Dan Martin hasn’t been discussed too openly, but he seems to
have been overlooked far too easily given his fantastic year where he took
another Grand Tour Stage – outdescending the main men of the Tour De France to
take one of the hardest days of the race – along with focusing solely on this
as a goal since the middle of the season, racing aggressively in the Tour of
Britain to help his preparing, having left the Vuelta a week earlier than most –
probably wise for him to peak given that he races the tour.
The winner of the hilliest and most testing one day classic
of the year – Liege Bastone Liege – Martin has probably won the single best
form guide to today’s event and boasts the all-round skills including a sprint
which mean that he’s not likely to be dependent on a solo effort from a long
way out like some particular climbers are, while we know that he will be able
to stay with the best of them.
Fabian Cancellara and Peter Sagan are fighting for favouritism
and both are capable, with preference for the bronze medallist from Wednesday’s
time trial, who has switched his focus to the mouments in recent years, and he
was without equal this year, including a hat trick of E3 Prijs Vlaanderen –
Harelbeke, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, before another Swiss time
trial championship and a Tour of Poland and Vuelta a Espana which have seen him
take on a slimmer, leaner frame that saw him put in impressive shifts for red
jersey winner Chris Horner on some of the most brutal mountains Spain had to
offer. While today’s a climbers or strongmen’s course, both are capable of
doing the hard stuff, although Cancellara’s two monument wins give him
preference, while not forgetting how he roasted Sagan on the final climb to
Flanders.
Philippe Gilbert has a realistic chance of retaining his
title, with a successful build up under his belt, but this is different from
the short, sharp Cauberg which was open to a change of pace and the higher
tempo likely to be applied on so many occasions isn’t likely to play to his
strengths. So much this time around. Spanish pair Alejandro Valverde and
Joaquim Rodriguez can take a hand and should enjoy this challenge, with good
sprints on them as well, but they’ve been one the go all season and had hard
Vueltas. Chris Froome has a feasible chance if his team can set a blistering
pace on multiple ascents, but it will need to be the type that prevents ant
other attacks when he goes and I’m not sure this circuit is quite long enough.
Edvald Boasson Hagen was on the podium last year and has the all-round profile,
but I’m not sure of him attacking and the same goes for Greg Van Averermet and
John Degenkolb. Pure climbers such as Quintana, Ulusssi, Uran, and the rest of
the Colombian teams are at the envy of what pace is employed consistently Thibaut
Pinot, Warren Barguil, and Romain Bardet are all interesting, with the second
named having amazed during the Vuelta, and Rui Costa’s fifth and 6th
in the Canadian double classics make him interesting at 50’s, with a good word
for the Dutch GC men who would have wanted a couple more kilometres on the
climbs.
Advice
1 pt each/way Vincenzo Nibali (16/1 general)
1 pt each/way Daniel Martin (28/1 Boylesports, general)
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