As September brings a new academic, financial, and working
year with it, one of the long standing traditions of the sporting season is
back in the return of English rugby on a week by week basis with the
Premiership’s regular season starting once again. The lifeblood for fans up and
down the country, with 22 weeks of action to excite and despair fans in equal
measure before the grand affair that is the end of season playoffs.
Title winners are the ones that get all the plaudits, but
finding a winner ahead of time is fraught with risk in comparison to the
regular season, which starts tonight with promoted Newcastle taking on Bath in
the season opener.
Both of those teams are way down the ‘pecking order’ that
has been established, with the quartet of Harlequins, Northampton, Leicester
and Saracens all taking the playoffs at the end of the last two seasons – and
with a 5 point gap separating Northampton and Gloucester at the end of last
year and a 6 point gap separating Exeter from the playoffs, it’s seen as
unlikely that the ‘big four’ will be breached this year despite the growing progressive
of Westcountry pair Exeter and Gloucester.
They could have realistic chances of usurping either
Harlequins or Northampton hat will be discussed later, but Saracens and Leicester
were the undisputed kings of the league game and Mark McCall’s men look to be
worth backing to retain their spot at the top of the league table at least.
Saracens’s last season was so close to being an incredible
one for Saracens, but three semi final defeats left what had been a fine
season’s work totally unravelled, with Northampton shocking them at the Allianz
Park and Toulon efficiently dismantling them down with boot of Johnny Wilkinson
in the Heineken Cup semi final. While both losses left a cloud over the club,
their Premiership record was impeccable, with just four losses through the
whole of last season and 17 wins to accompany that. While their defence, their
greatest asset, played a huge part – they conceded only 25 tries and 339 points
during the whole season – the move to the Allianz Park revitalized their
attacking form. In the last 10 games they scored 20 tries and averaged nearly
30 points for each game.
While unaffected by moving across several venues over the
past two years while being based at Vicarage Road, playing on the special
surface at the Allianz has not only given Saracens a new lease of life in an
attacking sense, but it’s also given them a proper fortress for them to play in
and it’s difficult to see anyone taking points from there this season. With
their defence likely to see them to valuable wins on the road, they can top the
table once again.
The Premiership regular season, much like it’s footballing
counterparts, is won by the squad with the most depth, and while there are
several sides that can put out a class first XV, the close relationship that Stuart
Lancaster has with the Premiership means that many of the Premiership’s best
are often called upon for England duty on a regular basis. England number 10 Owen
Farell for example, made only 11 appearances through last season but Charlie Hodgson,
the most creative of the halfbacks at Saracens, had 15 starts and ended up
scoring nearly 100 more points of the course of the season – between them, the
pair were a big part of steering Saracens to a top place finish.
Saracens’s strength in depth gives them a major advantage
over the rest of their top table counterparts, with games that take place
during the international break often making the biggest impact in terms of the
final table, especially given the close relationship that Lancaster and England
have with eachother when brining players into the elite squad. When test
players are taken away, Saracens still have the strongest squad and the
additions of barnstorming Billy Vunipola, who made mincemeat of Argentina in
June and will add a new element of go forward for attacking purposes, monster
tighthead James Johnston from Harlequins, an essential addition with the
playoffs in mind, and also the versatility offed by Marclo Bosch, an
Argentinean who can play anywhere across the backline, add an edge to a squad
that was already the strongest last year. They can take the regular season
title once again, and are worth supporting getting 3 points from Leicester on
the handicap in a market which groups the big 4 and Gloucester in 11 points of
eachother.
Saracens edged Leicester to the top spot despite scoring 15
less tries and gaining 5 less bonus points (losing and try) across the board,
and while the Tigers are worthy favourites to retain their Premiership title at
the end of the season, they have been edged out of top spot in the league table
for the last two years before peaking to make the final in 9 out of the last 11
seasons. Their squad is as deep as anyone’s but Saracens, but they are most
called upon for international duty - 6
of the squad toured with the British and Irish Lions and several provide the
core of the England efforts or are pushing hard for a place – and we believe
that Saracens can reach and even higher level playing at their home ground from
the start of this season.
With Toby Flood injured for the season opener – and quite
seriously at that – much will fall upon the new number 10 pairing of Ryan Lamb
and Owen Williams, with the former an established Premiership playmaker but
sometimes mercurial, and the latter a talent of immense promise.
There have been crucial changes at the top as well, with
Richard Cockerill absent for 9 games that include a trip to Exeter and a visit
of Northampton, while his number 2 Matt O’Connor has gone to Leinster to
replace Joe Schmidt. While their first
XV – including the league’s most promising backrow and two thirds of the
England frontrow – should feel confident about retaing the title and a European
charge, and they’ve bought in some promising talents – especially Gonzalo
Camacho, Jamie Gibson and David Mélé – but we can see them being bested once
again by Saracens to top spot.
Harlequins broke the established order when topping the
table and the winning the title with their free flowing brand of rugby last
year but suffered badly through fatigue midway through last season as
challenging on two fronts with key internationals in Chris Robshaw and Danny
Care under the pump especially. Robshaw’s Lions omission may have been harsh
but should have given him the rest that he so needed and the same can be said
of Danny Care as well. Nick Easter is one of the league’s best flyhalves, and
also guaranteed to play the great majority of games, which is a huge advantage
for them, but while others have improved, the majority of the squad – a fine
side nonetheless - is still the same, and the arrivals of Paul Doran-Jones and
Nick Kennedy may not be the oracle some felt they would be – James Johnston’s
loss is a big act to follow, and Nick Kennedy’s injury keeping him out until at
least November is a savage blow, which could see him miss games against
Northampton, Saracens and Leicester early on. They’re a realistic title
challenger, but in terms of the regular season, may be behind the big two as
they were last season.
Northampton, fourth for the last three seasons, have been
the subject of much attention following the arrival of three world class
players over the summer – Wales and Lions star George North, England and Lions
prop Alex Corbisiero, and possibly most important, Kahn Fotuali’I, one of the
world’s premier halfbacks and the gamechanger in one of those pivots that has
been so sorely missed on many occasions.
Those three additions make Northampton a aside that can beat
anybody on their day and their arrival should prove to be a huge difference in
the crucial games against their top 4 rivals that they’ve suffered so badly in
over the past few seasons, and the arrival of Alex King of Clermont fame – who
also spent five years at Wasps, winning four Premiership titles, two Heineken
Cups and three other domestic titles - at the club is a potentially brilliant
addition that could prove pivotal in helping the two important backline
additions to gel properly. The famed Northampton pack is meant to be their
biggest asset but when driven backwards, has been the catalyst for some big
defeats, so the losses of front pairing Soane Tonga'uiha and Brian Mujati to
France is a big concern for all at Saints Gardens, but at the same time the
large part of their squad too will miss games over the international period,
which takes away the appeal for a side that was well out of the reckoning last
year in terms of the league table.
There’s also the worry of losing Ryan Lamb – a dependable
flyhalf who provided backup and similar playing style to Stephen Myler – to
Leicester, leaving Myler and Glenn Dickson – who had yet to break into Super
Rugby before leaving New Zealand - with the task of firing up a backline which
brings a much more balanced mix of pace and power than in recent seasons.
However, with those additions, their starting fifteen could
be the equal of anybody and some notable successes, not least wins at Ulster
and Saracens, the latter the home side’s first defeat at the Allianz Arena –
and in the playoffs their stra quality could shine through. With only two wins
needed to snatch the title, they make appeal in the ‘grand final winner’ market
at 7/1, moreso than the short prices of the front two.
Only Gloucester and Exeter managed to get within touching
distance of the playoffs fro the rest of the pack, and alongside with Bath,
this Westcountry grouping is predicted to fight it out for the Heineken Cup
places – or a playoff spot should one of the big four fail. Strongest out of
that trio is generally prediected to be Gloucester, who finishes just one point
ahead of Exeter last season after losing arguably the game of the season on the
last day at Sandy Park, but there shouldn’t be such a gap between the two in
the market of reaching the top 4.
Gloucester are blessed with pace, skill, creativity and
dynamism – not least from the creative influence of Freddie Burns and Billy
Twelvetrees, supplying a backline that includes Johnny May and Charlie Sharples
– Gloucester can and do beat top teams at home – they toppled the top three
sides last year at Kingsholm – and aren’t too far away from breaking into the
playoffs if able to improve their away form, as eight losing bonus points from
last season’s nine defeats attests. Matt Kvesic’s arrival from Worcester is a
masterstroke for the backrow, even if Jim Hamilton’s move leaves a big gap to
be filled in the pack, but with Freddie Burns, Billy Twelvetrees, Matt Kevesic
and potentially Johnny May likely to play a big part in England tempers any
enthusiasm for the coming regular season prospects.
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| Henry Slade breaks against the U20 All Blacks - he can make an impact this season |
Bath’s new backline
additions have excited many in the Westcountry but for all their additions of
George Ford, Gavin Henson and Jonathan Joseph especially does give them new
attacking options, the loss of Michael Classens at 9 is a potentially destabilising
one – Micky Young isn’t in the same class – and those additions will all take
time to gel early and it could be another season before they break the pairing
of Exeter and Gloucester. Beyond them, with changes a plenty and a lack of
quality, it’s hard to see anyone else get involved.
Advice - Premiership
6 pts Saracens to win regular
season (5/2 Sportingbet)
1 pt each/way
Northampton to win Grand Final (7/1 general)
Advice – Handicaps
1 pt each/way Saracens +3 on regular season handicap (8/1
Sportingbet)
1 pt each/way Exeter Chiefs+17 regular season handicap (10/1
Sportingbet)
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