1.30 Longchamp
Qatar Prix Niel
(Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €74,373
Advice: 1 pt each/way Vancouverite (9/1
general)
Flintshire: Unable to
build on promising debut when only second at Longchamp (jockey blamed holding
ground and trip) but has since won his next three starts in style of a serious
horse, never more impressive than when storming clear and putting Grand Prix De
Paris to bed in strides, jumping to Arc favouritism in many lists; Looks like
he could well be the best of these and has some held on those counts, but soft
ground a worry (trainer says he’s willing to withdraw him if ground gets
softer) and this only a trial. Preempt: Maiden winner on fifth start and this a huge step
up. 
Shirkapour: Ran a race of great promise when fifth in Prix
Du Jockey Club and good second at Royal Ascot, but disappointing latest, not
sure on the ground, and others look much stronger here. 
Max Dynamite: Last in Grand Prix De Paris and up against it
big time here. 
Ocovango: Prime Derby contender for this yard after Prix
Greffulhe win, and since been unlucky at top level, not getting the best of
runs in either the Derby behind Ruler of the World or the Grand Prix De Paris
behind Flintshire; Not sure he’d have won either but entitled to do better here
and should have no trouble with the ground. 
Vancouverite: Upped
to 10 furlongs, won his last four on the bounce following disappointing debut,
notably impressive when landing Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville latest,
looking as if he’d enjoy step up in trip; Can improve once again here and of
interest today, while soft ground win – even if it was in a three runner race –
bodes well for him. 
Spiritjim: Can’t imagine he’ll be good enough having won
over 10 and 12 furlongs in minor races here. 
Kizuna: Like many of Japan’s top horses, now coming to take
a crack at this race following landmarks success in Asia, taking the Kyoto
Shimbun Hai with a trademark fast finish and then doing same to land Japanese
Derby; Big chance on that bare form but not run since, and big question mark
over ground, so avoidable here with view to taking a watching brief. 
Ruler of the World: At one time, the leader of the classic
generation after clear cut Derby win, having given impression that he was
clearly smart with Curragh maiden win (front two well clear), and then again
when running away with Chester Vase previously; Majorly disappointing when only
laboured fifth in Irish Derby, and while he can do better still and be better
today,not sure he wants this ground on first run back. 
Triple Threat: One of trainer’s four strong challenge and
arguably as promising as any, having come from last to first to land Prix
Eugene Adam, fulfilling promise that had seen him sent off as favourite for Criteirum
International as 2yo; 1m4f promises to suit.
VERDICT: Rain from Friday into Saturday has made the ground
soft and really quite testing here, although 15 metres of fresh ground has been
given. This is the big day for the Arc market with many key contenders taking
their last step here, starting with a race that has the best recent record for providing
winners. Flintshire is many people’s idea of the Arc winner and should take
some beating here, but he suffered the only defeat of his career on soft ground
here (albeit when far more immature), and he is avoidable. Kizuna’s form puts
him amongst the best of these, but this will be his first run since landing the
Japanese derby and he looks vulnerable on that score with the ground unknown.
Andre Fabre has decided to run the hot favourite but holds a strong hand and
his Triple Threat and VANCOUVERITE, both soft ground winners, look sure to
improve for the step up to 12 furlongs, with preference for the latter.
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