Everyone has their favourite moments of the footballing
season but for this particular blogger tonight’s return of the Champions League
is one of the high points of the sporting year. And for those looking to find
the winner from a betting point of view, the main question might be: How can
one improve upon perfection?
Pep Guaridola’s arrival at Bayern Munich heralds a new era
for the club, who finally took the title that had been eluding them so
painfully in recent seasons with an agonising loss against Chelsea two years
ago being avenged in the finest fashion possible with an all Bundesliga
showdown going the way of the Bavarians.
And there’s little reason in many minds as to why they can’t
be doing it again next year. The arrival of Mario Gotze and the currently
injured Thiago Alacantra is a serious statement of intent from the former
Barcelona man and signals a move towards the Barcelona style of play in the
4-1-4-1 formation that came to transform the way that most European and then
international sides would play. Untouchable on most occasions last season barring a 2-0 loss
to Arsenal when complacency slipped in and both wingers – Arjen Robben
especially – were particularly wasteful in a tie that they must have felt was
won, Munich produced one of the performances of recent seasons to destroy
Barcelona 7-0 over two legs in the semi-finals, outplaying them in many ways at
their own pressing game before tearing into their defence from the flanks and
eventually overpowering them, thanks in no small part to the ever present
Bastian Shewinsteiger and Thomas Muller in midfield.
While nobody doubts that they’re going to be the team to
beat once again, it remains to be seen just how comfortable their defence is
against the counter and in general with the two man defensive midfield pairing
now gone, and while the team seems to be taking to Guaridola’s new formation,
it remains to be seen how they react when challenged defensively under that new
system and the departure of Mario Gomez has not been accounted for, which is a
potentially dangerous flaw, not taking into account the fact that no side has
retained the European Cup since Milan in 1990.
Barcelona were torn apart by Munich in the semis last year
and were second best, but come into this campaign in much better shape and can
be expected to throw down a big challenge. The addition of Neymar offers a
frightening option across the attacking line for Barcelona, with not only a
potential double with Messi but also as a replacement of sorts to allow the
little Argentine to rest during the league seasons given the injury troubles
that saw Barcelona miss him so badly against Barcelona. However, as promising
as that arrival is – along with a proper manager in Gerado Martino – the key
issue of another centre back has not been properly addressed. Carlos Puyol and
Gerard Pique are two of the world’s best but Puyol is in his twilight years and
susceptible to injury over a long campaign, and the replacements barring him
are not inspiring to say the least, while both of their flanks do end up being
weak spots that the best can exploit properly.
Their rivals Real Madrid are another who we all know will go
deep into the competition, and the arrival of Bale makes for a frightening
front four, but they may regret the loss of Mezut Ozil and Gonazlo Higuain to
finance the deal. Ozil’s unique relationship with the other attackers and
incredibly high assist rate – his 70 in the last three seasons is the most of
any player in Europe - will be missed
even with the incredibly talented Isco as a potential replacement and Higuain’s
departure to Italy has left them with only Benzema as an established striker.
While Cristiano Ronaldo can and will turn games on their head, in the knockout
stages that could prove to be a problem and Madrid could have done with a
right-back to match the rest of their back four.
The next three teams listed are all English, and for
differing reasons, none of them appeals as winners. Chelsea, with a soft group
draw and a stack of midfield options, make the most appeal to get further under
Jose Mourinho’s second stint at Stamford Bridge but they’ve been worryingly
blunt in attack at some points so far even this early in the season and while
one has to take into account that Samuel Eto’o was hardly likely to have been
at his best for a tough away trip to Everton, it would be reassuring to see
some January arrivals in that department with Torres not having impressed so
far and a defensive midfielder would be very useful for the tighter knockout
games.
Manchester United’s first season without Sir Alex Ferguson
was always going to be a tough one and since their second final in three years
they’ve not gotten any further than the last 16. They were unlucky to go out to
Madrid last year in the last 16 but made a mess of the transfer window and
still look weak in key areas and very vulnerable to injury.
Manchester City have had a fine transfer window in adding Alvaro Negredo, Jesus Navas,
Ferandiniho, and Stefan Jovetic, but have struggled badly to adapt to European
football over the past two seasons and may be a step or two away from launching
a proper challenge. Their struggles on the road in general also don’t augur
well for knockout football if they make it through what looks to be a fairly
manageable group, and there’s better value elsewhere.
Some of that value lies with Juventus, who have dominated
Italy for the last two years and may now be ready to lay down a marker on the
European stage. Blown apart by Bayern Munich in the quarter finals last year,
there are good reasons to believe that they can improve enough from that to
challenge this year and there’s more to that defeat than would be suggested.
David Alaba’s first minute deflected goal completely broke
the intended gameplan for that tie and destroyed Juve’s rhythm from start to
finish, forcing a side built to frustrate and contain to chase the game from
minute one, ruining any chance they had of competing properly with last year’s
winners. It was also Conte’s first attempt at Europe’s biggest
competition, and with another year under his belt Juventus should be much
better prepared to take on the best this time around.
Their defence of Cheillii, Barzafgil, and Bonucci has kept
40 clean sheets in the last two years in Serie A, while Gianlugigi Buffon
remains one of Europe’s elite goalkeepers. Stephan Liechtensteiner is one of
the world’s best leftbacks – who has perfected the wingback role, while his
partner Kwadwo Asamoah is improving after his move and a first season that saw
him make a few mistakes first time up.
While Andrea Pirlo is still the main midfield name Paul
Pogba looks a special talent able to combine the best of both worlds in defence
and attack, and Atruro Vidal contributes to be one of the best box-to-box
midfielders in world football, but the real change Is in attack, where a new,
refreshed Carlos Tevez finally provides edge to Juve’s pressing game and a
focal point of an attack that has seemed blunt despite their two years of
Italian domination on the domestic front.
While Fernando Llorente has been reportedly unhappy in this
time there, Mirko Vucincic and Fabio Quagrilella to provide solid options to
help Tevez and there’s a feeling that Juve have adapted their game to play
Europe, improved their key strengths, and generally are far more ready to show
their best than last season. A group with Real Madrid and Galatasaray is no
easy one but should prepare them well and at 20/1 they make the most value
appeal of anyone with the top players in the market all having potentially
significant doubts.
Another of last year’s beaten quarterfinalists, Paris St
Germain, make appeal for exactly the same reasons. Winners of their group over
Porto, PSG were much the better side against Valencia despite only going
through by one goal on aggregate and took advantage of Messi’s absence along
with several other injuries – to produce a superb performance in the second
leg, dominating the game for 62 minutes until Messi’s introduction.
While Carlo Ancelotti is now gone and new coach Laurent
Blanc’s time at the head of the French national squad ended in catastrophe, he
should have a less mutinous dressing room here and has a truly exceptional
squad. The arrival of Edison Cavani from PSG gives them a frightening forward
pairing capable of beating any defence in the world, while the obvious benefit
of injury cover should something happen to one or the other.
Thiago Silva is the world’s best centre back and a vital
asset at the heart of the defence and while a big gamble has been taken on
Roma’s Marqinihios for an astronomical fee at just 18, one can’t deny his
obvious quality in and with the immensely promising Blasé Matiudi infront of
the pair, PSG should prove hard to break down this year while there’s plenty of
quality for a challenge on both fronts this season.
It’s surprising to see last year’s beaten finalists Borussia
Dortmund at four times the price of Bayern Munich given that little seems to
have changed at the Westfalenstadion. The departure of Mario Gotze was much
publicised but in the additions of aggressively attacking midfielder Henrikh
Mkhitaryan and striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang they’ve arguably improved
their side still further and with no significant changes, it seems hard to
pinpoint a reason why they shouldn’t be able to go as far as last year.
A defensive pairing of Neven Subtotic and Mats Hummels
offers far more in attack than most while names such as Reus, Blaszczykowski,
Sahin and Gundogan and Bender make for one of the most vibrant midfields in
Europe and when one takes into account Lewandowski’s prowess possibly being
supplemented by a new strike partner who has 5 goals in as many games for his
new side, it’s hard not to be tempted by 20/1.
A group with other likely contenders Napoli – who have every
chance of shaping into quarter finalists at least – And Arsenal, who have
captured a gem in Mesut Ozil but left other major problems unaddressed, is not
an easy one to say the least but their home form should see them top and they
look a much better side than the one that gained just 4 points in their first
appearance in the competition. There’s a worry that they’ve not been able to
balance a campaign on two fronts so far, but at 20/1 they are more than worth
the risk and they have enough quality to make a go of both the Bundesliga and
Champions League.
Elsewhere there are plenty of big prices contenders who
could take a big hand – Napoli have been very high on the short and longlist
for a good while and few forget how close AC Milan were towards striking a
crucial blow against Barcelona in the Camp Nou – but the 40/1 Coral dangle
about Atletico Madrid can’t be ignored.
Third in La Liga for the last season, 11 points clear of the
rest, under Diego Simeone El Atleiti have grown into one of the best sides in
Spain under his guidance and have already shown their European prowess when
winning the 2011/12 Europa League – a performance they supplemented with the
thrashing of Chelsea in the Super Cup, and once again with a Copa Del Rey win
at the Bernabeu to end last season.
The latest of an impressive stack of performances against
the biggest sides, they only lost this season’s Spanish Supercup on away goals
and kept Barcelona to a clean sheet at the Camp Nou, a huge performance in
terms of the 180 minute football that decides this competiton. Many will say
that the loss of Falcao is a huge blow but there can be few better replacements
and midfield names such as Koke, Gabi, and especially Arda Turan, while their
defence and defensive structure is as strong as any in the competition and few
are likely to get anything from their trips to the Vicente Caldron.
Advice
2 pts each/way Juventus (20/1 Hills, 18/1 general)
1 pt each/way PSG (16/1 general)
1 pt each/way Borussia Dortmund (20/1 general)
1 pt each/way Atleico Madrid (40/1 Coral)
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