Monday, 9 September 2013

Vuelta a Espana 2013 - Stage 16 ( Graus - Aramón Formiga)

The Vuelta went onto it’s second day in the Pyrenees, and the second long distance wide margin breakaway winner as Alexandre Geniez kicked clear 25km out and with a fantastic descent and climb upto Perygudes, taking the second big margin breakway on the queen stage after outlasting a group that had been 28 strong at one point.


The main group of favourites, including the elite of this year’s edition, finished in line from 5th to eighth, with Vincenzo Nibali finishing first of that group for the second straight day (as shown below) and holding a 50 second lead over the field going into the third straight summit finish, with a rest day, sprint day, and the Pena Carbega and arguably Europe’s most brutal climb, the Angilru.


So while the title’s not won yet, he’s comfortably been the race’s best rider and for the second day in the Pyrnees, looked extremely comfortable, setting the pace for extended periods and trying once or twice to drop his rivals before settling for winning the sprint of those favourites for fourth. No rival has looked like getting past him since Chris Horner sprinted clear a week earlier, and at 15/2 with Bet365, and each/way bet playing three places looks to be the best bet of the favourites – he’s outclimbed Joaquim Rodgriguez, and Alejandro Valverde, the two favourites for today,


Today’s finish, of the three, is actually most suited for those two mentioned above, but Nibali has had no trouble on the hardest percentages so far and attacked there at the beginning of this week and dropped all but Horner, so to get anywhere but the favourite, clear leader, and form man of the main men seems absurd at a short price.

Of the three days in the Pyrnees, this is the one most suited to a breakway, with the final climbb (left) listed as just 15.8km at only 4% but in reality broken up into two parts – the last 10KM being the hardest, and the last 3km averaging 7% - so while it’s a hard day, punchier riders can hope not to lose too much time. A big break looks likely to go however, with a tailwaind to start before the Puerto de la Foradada, a category 3 at 5.9% - and the Puerto de Cotéfablo, 12.5km at 4% - an ideal place to build a gap.


A break will go today – and Amerts Txurruka looks likely to be in it. Amets was in several moves at the beginning of stage 15 but couldn’t cover the key move, although it had two other Caja Rural riders present, and as such, he stayed behind. 20th yesterday, he was only 3 minutes off the lead group, and if he has a reasonable gap on the final climb, is more than good enough to stay away – a long range attack could work too.


Another who may be given either the free reign to skip clear, or the lenience to go in a move, is Rigoberto Uran. Uran has had a shocking tour so far but showed eagerness yesterday and if let in a move, would be the highest quality rider there by some way, so is worth a small interest. Similar comments apply to Diego Ulissi.


Advice

2 pts each/way Vincenzo Nibali (15/2 Bet365)


1 pt each/way Amets Txurruka (40/1 Boylesports)



0.5 pts each/way Rigoberto Uran (22/1 general)

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