The Vuelta went onto it’s second day in the Pyrenees, and
the second long distance wide margin breakaway winner as Alexandre Geniez
kicked clear 25km out and with a fantastic descent and climb upto Perygudes,
taking the second big margin breakway on the queen stage after outlasting a
group that had been 28 strong at one point.
The main group of favourites, including the elite of this
year’s edition, finished in line from 5th to eighth, with Vincenzo
Nibali finishing first of that group for the second straight day (as shown below) and holding a
50 second lead over the field going into the third straight summit finish, with
a rest day, sprint day, and the Pena Carbega and arguably Europe’s most brutal
climb, the Angilru.
So while the title’s not won yet, he’s comfortably been the
race’s best rider and for the second day in the Pyrnees, looked extremely
comfortable, setting the pace for extended periods and trying once or twice to
drop his rivals before settling for winning the sprint of those favourites for
fourth. No rival has looked like getting past him since Chris Horner sprinted
clear a week earlier, and at 15/2 with Bet365, and each/way bet playing three
places looks to be the best bet of the favourites – he’s outclimbed Joaquim
Rodgriguez, and Alejandro Valverde, the two favourites for today,
Today’s finish, of the three, is actually most suited for
those two mentioned above, but Nibali has had no trouble on the hardest
percentages so far and attacked there at the beginning of this week and dropped
all but Horner, so to get anywhere but the favourite, clear leader, and form
man of the main men seems absurd at a short price.
Of the three days in the Pyrnees, this is the one most
suited to a breakway, with the final climbb (left) listed as just 15.8km at only 4% but
in reality broken up into two parts – the last 10KM being the hardest, and the
last 3km averaging 7% - so while it’s a hard day, punchier riders can hope not
to lose too much time. A big break looks likely to go however, with a tailwaind
to start before the Puerto de la Foradada, a category 3 at 5.9% - and the Puerto
de Cotéfablo, 12.5km at 4% - an ideal place to build a gap.
A break will go today – and Amerts Txurruka looks likely to
be in it. Amets was in several moves at the beginning of stage 15 but couldn’t
cover the key move, although it had two other Caja Rural riders present, and as
such, he stayed behind. 20th yesterday, he was only 3 minutes off
the lead group, and if he has a reasonable gap on the final climb, is more than
good enough to stay away – a long range attack could work too.
Another who may be given either the free reign to skip clear, or the lenience to go in a move, is Rigoberto Uran. Uran has had a shocking
tour so far but showed eagerness yesterday and if let in a move, would be the
highest quality rider there by some way, so is worth a small interest. Similar
comments apply to Diego Ulissi.
Advice
2 pts each/way Vincenzo Nibali (15/2 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Amets Txurruka (40/1 Boylesports)
0.5 pts each/way Rigoberto Uran (22/1 general)
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