The Vuelta A Espana went uphill for the second time
yesterday but we saw little amongst the big favourites, with most staying in a
group before then splitting apart after Ivan Basso’s repeated attacks, with out
favourite and top tip Vincenzo Nibali losing the red jersey and time to all his
rivals, although it’s hardly a disaster given that he’s only 18 seconds down on
Roche and there’s a huge amount of climbing left – seven summit finishes still
to come – along with a time trial that looks ideal for Nibali if able to show
his improved for form.
Today’s run to Valepenas De Jaen is one of the most brutal
tests that the race has to offer and a long standing highlight of not only the
tour, but the season for climbing addicts, with it’s short, brutal ascent past
whitewashed houses making for one of the sights of the season.
While today’s profile may not look intimidating – it’s lumpy
but only one ascent is actually categorised – the final 45KM will sort men from
boys. The Alto de la Friaries has an average of just 5.8% but will be raced at
enough of a pace to drop anyone on an off day or anyone who can’t handle
climbing, and then we have a downhill run, of 7KM before rolling terrain which
sees us approach the final kilometre, which has ramps of 27% and never drops
below 20%.
It’s a scenario few could say that’s ‘made for them’, but
Joaquim Rodriguez, yet to really show himself at the finish of a race in this
year’s tour, is the best climber going when it comes to these sorts of
situations and a worthy favourite at 9/4.
Third on the short sharp climb to finish stage three, he’s been seventh and ninth on the other two
stages but in reality hasn’t been as suited to the climb presented so far as he
will be here and will be able to put the hurt on when others are retreating
upon such steep percentages, as he did so frequently last year, and as he did so
expertly when winning in 2011, benefitting from a ferocious leadout from Dani
Moreno – who seems to be in the form of his life – to put in his race winning
bid with 300m left.
That was a year after he was fourth to Igor Anton, having
shot clear too early, but at the peak of his carrer in his twilight years,
he’ll want to grab this chance with both hands and take as much time as
possible – should anyone have an off day then they can explode here, and
there’s a time bonus up for grabs.
Any number of riders could take a hand – the length of the
climb brings heavy puncheurs into it if they’ve got the legs (Philippe Gilbert
was fifth here in 2010) – but the really interesting price was Nicholas Roche
at 28’s, given that he’s been eighth here twice and now holds the red jersey
and is in the form of his life this week, holding red after another bold
showing yesterday – he may be worth each/way support.
Advice
3 pts Joaquim Rodriguez (9/4 general)
1 pt each/way Nichols Roche (28/1 Bet365)
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