UCI World Road Race Championships 2013

The end of another success stacked season for British cycling is here with the World Championships Road Race set to end a season which has given many magical moments as always, but there are good reasons to think this today’s Firenze spectacular might be amongst the best of them.  Normally comparable to one of the hardest classics of the season, this year’s parcours is a brutal, challenging and exciting course that promises to be one of the hardest in years, with the Firenze-Firesole circuit likely to be tackled in rain and thunderstorms.

The race is taken in two parts, with the most crucial shown below in detail. A 106.6km ride to Firenze which has two climbs which are unlikely to fore a selection unless raced at areal pace, and then the 10 laps of Firenze, where there are the two defining features of this race – the Firesole climbs, which is 4.3km at an average of 5.8 percent, which doesn’t seem to fearsome before one sees the extended ramp for the last 2km that is never lower than 6.8% and has a section of 9%, twisty, narrow, technical descents, and the Via Salvati, a brutal 600m ramp of 10.2% that has a section of 16%, followed by a wide, fast descent. Don’t forget that bump uphill before the finishing line too that isn’t categorised or highlighted, as that’s 10% and a little launchpad before the final flat run in.

Raced 10 times, and at the pace that some of the more climbing oriented teams – Spain, Colombia, Great Britain, and Italy – will look to enforce – then this race could see a lot of riders unable to cope with the high tempo and the first thought when looking at this was that the climbers and the extreme classics hardmen are the groups to focus on.

Another factor to focus on has to be the length of the race. At nearly seven hours long, and with 295m of vertical gain for each lap, a total of 3,600m – like an Alpine Stage – stamina is going to catch many out, and weaken many for the last crucial laps. With 272km of racing, it’s fair to say that very few will be lasting the full effort today.

With so many key contenders today, I’ll just list my personal bets and why before looking at the rest of the field. Over the last two years, Vincenzo Nibali (red) has reached a new level of performance and after his finest season yet, where he dominated the Giro D’Italia and was a fine second in the Vuelta Espana – even if that fashion in which he was overturned by veteran Chris Horner was a little disappointing – he looks ready to make a bold bid in his home nations, having already enhanced his status with his dominant Giro win here earlier in the year.

We already know that he’s imperious going uphill, but his targeted preparation for a parcours that looked made for him makes him irresistibly tempting. The Vuelta’s hardest climbs were just too much for him but he was a clear second and in those three weeks will have acquainted himself well with the short sharp climbs and high percentages that will play such a big part – while we know that he’s probably the best descender in the peloton – a skill he used to great effect in the Giro when many crumbled. His time trial improvements now mean that he can launch big solo attacks – something that will be needed today with the run in of 2km pancakeflat compared to the rest of the course – and in a strong enough Italy team for support, he should have a platform to go for home in the last laps.

He’s not got the greatest one day record, but his performance to take Tirreno-Adriatico from Chris Froome by lasting with the elite selection in filthy conditions with the three time ascent of a climb arguably far harder than today’s in the same conditions expected for the finish was a perfect classics style performance and the testing nature of the route makes this different than most one-day tests. At 16’s, an each/way bet is a no brainer.

Dan Martin hasn’t been discussed too openly, but he seems to have been overlooked far too easily given his fantastic year where he took another Grand Tour Stage – outdescending the main men of the Tour De France to take one of the hardest days of the race – along with focusing solely on this as a goal since the middle of the season, racing aggressively in the Tour of Britain to help his preparing, having left the Vuelta a week earlier than most – probably wise for him to peak given that he races the tour.

The winner of the hilliest and most testing one day classic of the year – Liege Bastone Liege – Martin has probably won the single best form guide to today’s event and boasts the all-round skills including a sprint which mean that he’s not likely to be dependent on a solo effort from a long way out like some particular climbers are, while we know that he will be able to stay with the best of them.

Fabian Cancellara and Peter Sagan are fighting for favouritism and both are capable, with preference for the bronze medallist from Wednesday’s time trial, who has switched his focus to the mouments in recent years, and he was without equal this year, including a hat trick of E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Harelbeke, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, before another Swiss time trial championship and a Tour of Poland and Vuelta a Espana which have seen him take on a slimmer, leaner frame that saw him put in impressive shifts for red jersey winner Chris Horner on some of the most brutal mountains Spain had to offer. While today’s a climbers or strongmen’s course, both are capable of doing the hard stuff, although Cancellara’s two monument wins give him preference, while not forgetting how he roasted Sagan on the final climb to Flanders.

Philippe Gilbert has a realistic chance of retaining his title, with a successful build up under his belt, but this is different from the short, sharp Cauberg which was open to a change of pace and the higher tempo likely to be applied on so many occasions isn’t likely to play to his strengths. So much this time around. Spanish pair Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez can take a hand and should enjoy this challenge, with good sprints on them as well, but they’ve been one the go all season and had hard Vueltas. Chris Froome has a feasible chance if his team can set a blistering pace on multiple ascents, but it will need to be the type that prevents ant other attacks when he goes and I’m not sure this circuit is quite long enough. Edvald Boasson Hagen was on the podium last year and has the all-round profile, but I’m not sure of him attacking and the same goes for Greg Van Averermet and John Degenkolb. Pure climbers such as Quintana, Ulusssi, Uran, and the rest of the Colombian teams are at the envy of what pace is employed consistently Thibaut Pinot, Warren Barguil, and Romain Bardet are all interesting, with the second named having amazed during the Vuelta, and Rui Costa’s fifth and 6^th in the Canadian double classics make him interesting at 50’s, with a good word for the Dutch GC men who would have wanted a couple more kilometres on the climbs.

Advice

1 pt each/way Vincenzo Nibali (16/1 general)

1 pt each/way Daniel Martin (28/1 Boylesports, general)

The Rugby Championship - South Africa v Australia

Unlike many coaches after a big referring incident, Henyke Meyer refused to blame Roman Poite for his errors strewn performance that ended up giving New Zealand a huge helping hand in their headline clash last week but conditions are ideal for him to continue the excellent progress him and his South Africa side have made with the visit of below par and under fire Australia to Newlands today.

South Africa and New Zealand came together as the two sides still on for a grand slam of wins but the All Blacks extended their Eden Park winning streak and put one hand on the championship for this year, although the 29-15 scoreline flatters them and for the first time ahead of this coming World Cup – which is less than two years away – the All Blacks were put under pressure for a sustained period of time and it’s fair to say that without Bismarck Du Plessis’s wrongful red card – his first yellow was given for an entirely legal tackle – they could have gotten an awful lot closer than the final scoreline.

Meyer’s men, otherwise, have been flawless so far this year, winning 9 on the bounce including a 38-12 demolition of Australia, and on home soil they can set up a tremendous decider with New Zealand on home turf by giving Australia a heavy beating. Ewan Mceknzie’s choncirlc lack of foreward power is making it impossible for him to use his backs and the dropping of Will Genia did nothing for their performance against Argentina last week in a game the hosts won by just one point last week in Perth.

Advice

4 pts South Africa -12 (17/20 Sportingbet) 

Royal Lodge Stakes 2013

 2.00 Newmarket

Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £56,710

Advice: 1 pt win Somewhat (13/8 general)

Berkshire: Impressive winner of Chesham Stakes to follow up promising Newbury debut, and way that form worked out since – three pattern winners all well beaten since, including fourth that day Somewhat who reopposes  - gives him the best form chance here, while he is most unexposed horse in field having had just the two runs although he’s been off for 98 days since.

Kingfisher: Looked a potentially serious horse when start to finish 9l winner of Killarney maiden last month and better than bare form of his well beaten third at Curragh might indicate having forced the pace early, but plenty still to find.

Sir Jack Layden: second to Washaar in a Haydock maiden and seventh behind Berkshire in the Chesham and on that evidence, a lot to be making up here to get involved.

Somewhat: Impressive debut win at Musselbrugh when he clocked a strong time and won by seven lengths followed with laboured Chesham fourth, but grown up a lot since then and deeply impressive listed win (Washaar behind) one of a completely different horse to the one that was just fourth at Royal Ascot and will get much closer today.

Washaar: Impressively defied a penalty considering the way that he struck on for home too soon at Salisbury latest, his second listed win; One loss came at the hands of Somewhat howeverand he makes more appeal today despite progressive profile.

VERDICT: A cracking card is kicked off by the return of the much anticipated Berkshire but he’s had a long layoff and SOMEWHAT, an improved horse since who should relish the step up in trip, has ideal conditions to gain his revenge today. Kingfisher and Washaar are clearly useful but do look held on various formlines. 

Cheveley Park Stakes 2013

2.35 Newmarket

Connolly's Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £103,949

Advice: 3 pts win Vorda (2/1 general)

Alutiq: Impressive start to life and didn’t get the best of runs behind Joyeuse latest at Salisbury but already well behind her and much more needed for rather exposed sort here.

Come to Heel: Won both her starts in style of group class horse, stepping up on 6f maiden win when winning Listed event at Curragh in nice style; Form of that has at least been boosted and had plenty more in the tank, even if she has to improve upon that to get involved with the quality here, potential being the buzzword with her.

Dorothy B: Beat listed place filly when winning Nottingham maiden and then ran Joyeuse close in Salisbury listed event latest; Possible that she was flattered to get so close and tat filly held on formlines, so hard to recommend for top spot but place not beyond her.

Joyeuse: Lived upto breeding so far, being a half-sister to Frankel; Impressive despite greenness on Lingfield debut and then when third in Albany, not getting the best of runs; More straightforward when winning Listed race after 11 weeks off from Dororthy B, and can go well with more presumably still to come.

Kiyoshi: Impressive form on both debut and for maiden win and one of the best wins of the season when destroying field in the Albany (Joyeuse included) despite hanging from one side of the track to the other; Passed by Rizzena late on in Moyglare Stud Stakes when upped to 7 furlongs at the Curragh, disqualified because of the inference she caused by hanging; Clearly extremely talented but if she can’t stay straight today, vulnerable.

Princess Noor: First time blinkers seemed to have worked the oracle when taking  Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot in July, form that’s been boosted by second taking same position in the Lowther; Fine form of yard and booking of Murtagh makes her interesting for all she has a lot of improving to do.

Vorda: One of the leading 2yo fillies of the season, having complete hat-trick in fine style with Prix Robert Papin win; Improved again when second in the Prix Morny, ahead of Rizzena in third which gives her strong formlines through everything else in the race; Should take the beating if running to that level.

VERDICT: A competitive renewal, with ready preference for French raider VORDA, given her beating of Rizzena in the Prix Morny giving her a strong form chance of beating Kiyoshi – who must stay straight if she’s to have any chance on this of all courses – and Joyuse, who has improved since the Albany, along with Come to Heel.  

Sun Chariot Stakes 2013

3.10 Tottenham

Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)
Winner £110,131

Chigun: Big future on the cards after beating La Collins with plenty to spare in Curragh Group 3 in May but shown nothing since and more reliable players on show here.

Duntle: One of the most progressive 3yos of last season and continued in same form, winning on return and at Royal Ascot in fine style, but readily held behind Elusive Kate

Elusive Kate: Added two more Group 1’s to her tally this season in style, fighting hard to get past Sky Lantern and then roasting a top class field at Deauville (including Duntle) from the front in fine style; Could never land a blow in Jacques Le Marois but that was hottest race of the year and fine chance back against own sex

La Collina: Back to her best when landing Matron Stakes at Leopardstown despite some poor efforts recently, although one has to rank that form lower than usual for the level; Hard to see that being good enough here.

Integral: Brilliantly bred, exciting after maiden win in May and sweeping turn of foot to come through from last to first at Sandown; Hampered in the Nassau and back to winning ways latest, but magnificent effort needed to dead heat with admirable Lady’s First and looks below the best of her generation, for all she could improve.

Just The Judge: Close second to Sky Lantern in Guineas, after which she was an impressive winner in Ireland, but then thrashed in Coronation Stakes, although the margin was exaggerated by being forced well wide from early stages and making effort early; No show in Nassau but plenty of reasons to forgive that and not too far away on form.

Sky Lantern: One of the top fillies last year and proven her class with Guineas and Coronation Stakes wins, the last one strikingly impressive although things fell for her perfectly; Last two starts have been anything but, carried across the track when unable to get past Elusive Kate and then hampered when sneaking into Nassau Stakes picture (may not have stayed 10f but we never really saw); Arguably worthy favourite today given that WFA scales now see her 4lbs better off for then; Would want strong gallop.

VERDICT: A competitive renewal, with Sky Lantern readily expected to get the better of Elusive Kate on 4lbs better terms after their controversial Falmouth meeting and her luckless Nassau run, but Just the Judge may be the best value in what’s not exactly a betting race. 

Shadwell Fillies' Mile 2013

3.15 Newmarket

Shadwell Fillies' Mile (Group 1) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £103,949

Advice: 5 pts win Rizzena (9/4 general)

Ante Post: 1 pt each/way Rizzena, 2014 1,000 Guineas (10/1 general) 

Avenue Gale: Successful June debut at the Curragh promised much and solid group placed efforts the next tice before listed win over reopposing Ballybacka Queen stack up well (especially given the interference that she suffered), but looks off the standard set here despite potential for improvement.

Ballybacka Queen: Off the mark at the third attempt in Tipperary Maiden over 7 furlongs but beaten for the second time by a hampered Avenue Gabriel last time and needs more than that to get into the shakeup here.

Chriselliam: Close second in 1m listed event at Haydock but ninth place finish behind Sandiva suggests that this will be too tough for her.

Ithtimal: Strong early season form in some of the best maidens run this year before Cesham third and since then has struck decisively to win Sweet Solera and May Hill Stakes the last twice, on both occasions an easier winner than margin suggested; Should take a big hand once again.

Rizzena; Rapidly progressive over 5 furlongs early in season, winning Ascot maiden, Sandown listed, and then Queen Mary at Royal Ascot before being tapped for toe twice over 6 furlongs, once over July Course and on other occasion in Prix Morny, but well on top for strongest juvenile event of season run so far when beating Tapestry and Kiyoshi in Moyglare Stud Stakes at Curragh decisively, well on top at the finish and going away after seven furlongs; Could be still better over this trip.

Sound Reflection: Looked like a potential class act in winning maiden and conditions stakes at Kempton over 7f, able to set her own pace and then beat three rivals with ease latest, supplementing impressive maiden win the time before; Can go well.

Uchenna: Looked as if the step up to 1 mile would do the job when making some late headway in Kempton maiden and that proved to be the case when landing Goodwood maiden by a head, but needs another, bigger step forward based on that form.

Wonderfully: Shown great promise in her two wins so far, getting up on the line over 6 furlongs at Fairyhouse before fidning that trip far too sharp in Alabany Stakes; Made amends in quite handsome fashion at Leopardstown but hampered before the race had even gotten going properly when beaten nearly seven lengths by Rizzena latest; Can do better still but a worry that she might be flat footed at crucial stage despite obvious potential at a mile.

VERDICT: RIZZENA already has the best form of these by some way based on her Moyglare Stud Stakes win and promising to improve for the step upto a mile, can announce herself as the leading 1,000 Guineas contender so far. Godolphin’s well established and progressive Ithimal, the extremely promising Sound Reflection, and Ballydoyle’s Wonderfully, all provide stiff opposition for her to face.

Football - Wednesday 25th September

On a tricky coupon as far as value’s concerned, back Napoli to continue their Serie A resurgence with a heavy win against Serie B Champions Sassulo.

Rafa Bentiez’s side have enjoyed a near perfect start to the season, winning all 5 of their games, going four from four in Serie A and also beating Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. Bentiez’s investment of the Edison Cavani windfall has already begun to show its worth with Real Madrid pair Gonazlo Higuain and Jose Callejon forming an excellent combination while the last of the three Tenors, Marek Hamsik, taking his form to a new level.

Sassuolo have found life extremely hard since joining the top flight, suffering a 7-0 beating by Inter at the weekend in a game they barely had a chance in, and a similar result looks on the cards here. Napoli have rested some of their more illustrious stars with trips to Genoa and Arsenal in the next week, but still play Higuain, Inler, Hamsik and Mertens. Sassulolo have failed to score in three of their four games and in their last two, been beaten 4-1 and 7-0. The 21/20 on Napoli winning both halves however, may be the best of the game. Sassuolo have lost every single half they’ve played so far this season and scored 5 first half goals in all competitions. For those who are worrying about a potentially slow start, the two goal handicap is also an option, although the home side to score 3 at 4/5 is possibly a more solid option than that.

Elsewhere, Lazio look to be the second best bet of the night at home to Catania, while there are a whole host of sides in the League Cup that could be considered a cracking bet, but with motivation difficult to judge, it's best left. 

Advice

2 pts Napoli to score 3 or more against Sassuolo (4/5 general)

1 pt Napoli to win both halves (evs Paddy Power)

World Time Trial Championship Preview 2013

They say to save the best till last and this year’s world championships time trial has the potential to be one of the races of the season with a whole host of top contenders for the time triallist’s rainbow jersey this year that could be separated by just seconds. Situated in the spectacular setting of Firenze, the course needs little explaining. A pan flat affair barring a small drag early on that is 58kms long; The typical time trialist test of power and timing.

Three men are predicted to dominate today’s time trial, the same three men that have dominated the time trial scene through the last three years between then, and with them, the winners of 7 of world championship time trials in the last decade.

Tony Martin saved his season last year with a superb win in this by just 5 seconds over an extremely testing course to save a year that had been previously ruined by injuries including a cracked wrist, Martin prevailed in a tight duel for the gold medal despite the extremely undulating and testing course playing totally against his huge power to weight ratio for a man who regularly turns a gear ratio in the high 50’s. Since then, he has crushed his opposition on all but a few occasions, winning seven time trials this year, all by comfortable margins. With this pan flat, time trial course the perfect place for him to deploy those same tactics to the letter, it’s understandable that he’s a hot favourite for the hat-trick of titles today, with another world team time trial – albeit by a whisker – under his belt from Sunday.

Bradley Wiggins takes the final corner on his way to a huge win
in the Tour of Poland, beating Fabian Cancellara and Taylor
Phinney by 57 and 1.14 respectively

Whether that makes him a bet at 11/10 is another matter. Sir Bradley Wiggins (left) in in the same shoes that Tony Martin was in a year ago, hitting his peak form at the end of a year, which has been mostly a write off for him. Wet weather, cold and poor descents cost him in the Giro, and injury has since prevented him from taking part in the Tour De France, but in that off season the Olympic gold medallist has gotten back to full fitness and added 7-8kg to the light, slim frame that he used to prevent losses going uphill.

The benefits of this were seen in his tour de force at the Tour of Poland, where he crushed the opposition in a tour de force that saw him beat Fabian Cancellara by nearly a minute and Taylor Phinney, second last year in a tense duel by just under 6 seconds, by 1.14 on a rolling course.

Wiggins’s tour of Britain win, while not proving anything new, was a fine confirmation of his strength and condition and his attacking performance through Knowsley Safari Park’s wet and slippery corners showed a strong mental foundation and excellent preparation for today’s test. Some might argue that he can’t generate the pure power to weight that Martin will be able to pull out today but at the same time he’s prepared specifically physically and mentally for this test and the extra muscle bulk he’s put on should prove beneficial. While at his Tour De France weight – albeit with Cancellara and Martin injured and below their best – he crushed the opposition in the Olympic field in a dominant performance and when at his peak, has posted time more than quick enough to seriously challenge Martin on a flat track and on value grounds at least, is the bet of the two at 7/4.

Fabian Cancellara, a four-time world champion, is reported to be focusing mainly on the road race by many but has been overlooked far too quickly in the light of a wonderful season which saw him dominate the spring classics, including a hat trick of E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Harelbeke, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, before another Swiss time trial championship and a steadily progressive Tour of Poland and Vuelta a Espana which have seen him take on a slimmer, leaner frame that saw him put in impressive shifts for red jersey winner Chris Horner on some of the most brutal mountains Spain had to offer.

His leaner frame proved a big help when taking the time trial in Spain – by no small margin of 37 seconds over Martin hat came on a much more complicated course than today’s – including a long, even if it was a low percentage, uphill drag – but even on today’s course one has to consider him more of a threat than the prices would suggest and the last of the 8/1 with Bet Victor is worth having onside for value reasons.

Taylor Phinney, second last year by just five seconds, is the only other one given a realistic chance by the bookmakers and he does have the ability to pose a time today that could contend for the win. However he was behind both Wiggins and Cancellara in Poland and while he’s finding his seasonal best, he has tougher opposition than last year to contend with today in his fight for a medal.

Any number of players could take advantage of a slip up or mishap with the front four today, including names like Richie Porte, Alex Dowsett, Rohan Dennis, Adrian Malori, Slyvain Chavanel and Sevin Tuft, but they all have a mountain to climb to make any headway against the ‘big four’, in what should be a race to savour.

Advice

1 pt Bradley Wiggins (7/5 Hills)

1 pt Fabian Cancellara (8/1 Bet Victor)

The League Cup 2013/14

It’s often seen as one of the most undesirable and unwanted competitions but the Carling Cup may provide us one of the best and most obvious bets of the season with Chelsea and Manchester City looking to be the best bets of the tournament.

Much has been said and made of Jose Mournihio’s return and even more of his first XI and squad choices in the early part of the season, but whatever one may make of those decisions, no-one can take away from the immense depth that his squad boasts and in a competition that has been reduced to second and third sides until the very latter stages, that makes his side worthy favourites.

A summer spending splurge has bought several of Europe’s most talented midfielders to club, and Mournihio has an overload of talent to call upon. If Juan Mata is still left outside the main plans than he could be the centrefold of the Blues in this competition, while if the same applies to David Luiz then Chelsea will have two players of the highest quality.

Marco Van Ginkel wasn’t even in the squad for Saturday’s win against Chelsea while Andre Schurrle and Kevin De Brune may both see time in these midweek fixtures. As with Chelsea’s first team, there’s a slight worry that their options upfront aren’t what they could be, but Fernando Torres is doing far better now than he was when starting at the club and Demba Ba is the aerial presence that Chelsea could need on the road.

Cezar Azpiculetta,, Michael Essien, Frank Lampare, and Willian were all on the bench for that game and could form the core of a side which would have to be taken seriously for any of the four major trophies, and with such quality in the side it’s hard to see them ever fielding a ‘weak’ side in this competition. There’s always the potential of a nasty clash against a fellow big 6 member, but they beat Manchester United last year in extra time and have far more strength in depth than most of their top table rivals, so make appeal at 5/1 to give Jose – who has won Cups in Portugal, England (including this competition before), Italy and Spain – yet another trophy.

Manchester United’s poor midfield performances make backing them a serious issue and a third round tie against Liverpool could go either way, while Arsenal’s squad depth – despite a rich flow of younger talent coming through the ranks – is an issue. Tottenham make more appeal given the summer influx of signings that now give them options in midfield and out side like Erik Lamela for this tournament. However Tottenham’s chase for fourth will take priority and head coach Andre Villas-Boas’s argument last that the scheduling of tonight’s  match away to Aston Villa- his team's third in six days - was "putting the players' careers at risk" – is offputting.

Manchester City may be second favourites but make more appeal than the rest of the top sides. This will obviously be the least of their issues but their four strong strikeforce of Jovetic, Negredo, Aguero and Dzeko may be utilised – certainly Jovetic needs time to get upto match fitness – while a midfield could include James Milner. Micah Richards and Javi Garcia could be asked to defend and the giant Costel Pantimillion has looked impressive at times in goal. Away form is a potential worry for a side that sometimes doesn’t travel well but Pellegrini’s more open attacking style should help them and they’re worth a punt still.

Of the other Premiership sides – the Championship may hold a contender but resources are drained at best – elsewhere, as previously referred to, Everton might be best. Sixth in the league for the past two years running, they look to be adapting quickly to Roberto Martinez’s style and if making it past Fulham – who are close to the bottom and likely to have issues with being involved in a potential relegation scrap, like many Premier League clubs in the lower ranks of the table – and going deep enough into the competition, they’ve got the quality to launch a winning challenge if taking things seriously.

Advice

2 pts Chelsea (5/1 Bet Victor)

2 pts Manchester City (6/1 general)

1 pt each/way Everton (16/1 general)