Premiership - Boxing Day

The Boxing Day Premier League fixture offer a whole range of mouth-watering action with about 200 markets a game through England and Scotland but all of the statistical evidence suggests that if there’s just one bet on the coupon today it’s Manchester City to boost their title chances by knocking front runners Liverpool at the top of the table in the feature game of the 46 being played in the football league today.

As we head into 2014 just 2 points separate first from fourth – and only 6 separate Liverpool from Tottenham in seventh – with the title race threatening to be the most open in years if all sides maintain their current level of performance during the second half of the season.

You could have gotten 25/1 on Liverpool winning the title before the start of the season, having finished seventh last season, but Brendan Rodgers’s side have been transformed by the incredible form of strikers Daniel Sturridge – who had 9 goals before a bad ankle injury and Luis Suarez, who is out on his own for the goalscoring charts with an insane 19 goals scored already (enough to win 7 golden boots in 20 seasons of the Premiership) since Sturridge’s absence. Add the improvement of Jordan Henderson 9- finally living upto his much maligned price tag – Philippe Coutiniho excelling once back from injury and Raheem Sterling taking yet another step forward on the wing, and you have a strong attacking force which has helped the Uruguayan tear apart Norwich, West Ham, Cardiff and particular Tottenham in recent weeks with a 5-0 trashing that bought the sacking of Andre Villas Boas.

However Manchester City is a different task. Last year’s runners up were exhibiting the same worrying away form on the road that cost them their title challenge during the earlier stages of the season despite Manuel Pellegrini’s more expansive style and signings brining some of the best football played anywhere to the Ethiad this season. However much improved away form of late – City haven’t lost their last 4 on their travels  including a win at Bayern Munich in the Champions League – suggests that Pellegrini’s men have found a happy balance between the Etihad and their travels and the bad news for Liverpool is that no side in England is harder to beat at home.

City won 14 of their 19 home games last year but were falling out of love with Roberto Mancini’s management and tactics and have been rejuvenated by Manuel Pellegrini’s fresh attacking approach and the improved physical condition of Davild Silva in particular, although Samir Nasri has excelled in the midfield. Sergio Augero’s absence is a big blow although with Edin Dzeko and new signing Alvaro Negredo having had a sterling season there’s no loss to their attacking sharpness and new signing Fernadninhio has been a standout performer in the midfield, which will be a massive battleground as City try and keep the ball away from Liverpool’s quicker attackers.

That said, City are yet to drop a point at home this year and have sytched down every threat sent their way, scoring 35 goals in their eight home wins so far, more than any since Spurs in 1962-63 – and amongst those victories include resounding wins over Manchester United (4-1), Tottenham (6-0), and lately Arsenal in a 6-3 thriller.

Liverpool come here in better form than for either of them but have had the benefit of largely winnable home games taking them to the top of the table and have won just three away games this season (with Tottenham self destructing despite a great performance). Given City’s propensity to be open at the back - Arsenal could and should have scored more than 3 two weeks ago – the 21/10 on both teams to score and City to come out on top makes appeal as does the 5/2 on City winning with 4 or more goals in the game, while city have passed the -1 goal handicap on every occasion this season - but a straight win will do while 5/6 still lasts.

Elsewhere the 7/5 about Southampton arresting their poor recent run at Cardiff, who themselves are struggling for form, is interesting. Southampton are winless in 6 but have gone to Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle, while they hosted Manchester City and Tottenham inbetween. On all those occasions they worked and still found openings before the extra quality told between the sides and this is their most realistic assignment in well over a month, and they look well capable of taking 3 points from Wales with the home side struggling for goals.

With just two wins in eight at home, Villa look well worth avoiding and possibly orth taking on with Crystal Palace, who have improved since Tony Pulis has come in with three wins in their last 6 at a tempting 7/2. Pulis’s former side, Stoke, took advantage of Villa’s poor form to get into the top half of the table but could be bought back down to earth at Newcastle, who are flying high in sixth and finding a way to win more often than most at the moment. The Europa League and several injures dragged the Magpies down into a regleation battle last year but there’s more quality at St James’s Park than most places in the Premiership and Stoke have just one away win this season along with defeats to the 4 top 10 sides they’ve played so far.

Advice

5 pts Manchester City (5/6 general)

1 pt Southampton (7/5 general)

1 pt Crystal Palace (4/1 Stan James)

1 pt Newcastle (8/11 general)