South Africa v India (2nd Test)

It’s been late but we might just have seen the best finish to a sporting match in 2013. And it didn’t even have a winner. However infuriating one might have found South Africa’s supposed ending to what would have been the biggest run chase in test history by some margin, the fact that this is the ‘decider’ could also be considered even more inappropriate. Cricket politics aside, the second test between the two best test sides in the world has all the makings of a thriller, even if not going down to the last balls as it did at the Wanderers when they face India for the second time in their two math series.

There’s an argument to be made for backing both sides and there’s an argument to be made for suggesting both sides will be crestfallen not to have taken the win, but wether there’s an argument to be made for backing South Africa at 20/21 is different. Graeme Smith’s men proved their steel by turning what looked a lost cause into a game many will feel that they should have won, and have improved from their first test on certain occasions in the past – notably when saving their series against Pakistan in the UAE earlier this year – they have also not won there for 5 years and lost the last four tests, all of them coming as the second match of the series.

They might – a decision will be made late on his participation - have also lost key figure Morne Morkel, who had been the most threatening bowler by far when rolling his ankle and being left out of the second innings. His absence will be even more keenly felt here with such volatile conditions likely to prevail, although in Kyle Abbot, who took 7-29 against Pakistan on his debut in February and is local to the ground, or Rory Kelinveldt, who has 4 tests under his belt (including a tour of Australia) and is well able to extract pace and bounce. Both have been in excellent recent form, with Abbott claiming a five-for in Dolphins' win against Lions and Kleinveldt taking 4 wickets for the Cobras against the Knights recently.

India made the running for the majority of the first test and barring the first wicket, had Dale Steyn as subdued as any side has in recent memory while all three of their pace attack were threatening on equal levels. They came into that game on the back of eight straight defeats outside the sub continent but a largely new batting lineup looked immensely at ease with conditions once getting in and Cheteswar Pujara and Virat Kohli took control away from South Africa in both innings while there were contributions to be found through the order. The bounce, pace and swing that have undone them seemed not to bother them in the slightest although conditions here are more volatile.

Famous for the “Timeless Test” in 1939 when nearly 2,000 runs were scored and England’s boat home ended proceedings, the fact that a run filled epic should be the most famous game here is deeply ironic. The location – within walking distance of the beaches – gives a unique climate and the “Green Mamba” has seen some spectacular bowling performances as well as some horrendous batting collapses. When Sri Lanka levelled the series here in 2011 South Africa went from 103-4 to 119-8 and when India (with 5 of the side set to start here also present) did the same the year before they went from 3-67 to 131 all out.

Both fast bowlers and spinners have excelled here. Dale Steyn – who had his worst test in recent memory at the Wanderers, so much so that he was debunked from the No.1 test bowling spot tore India down with 6-50 here 3 years ago in the first innings while Zaheer Khan took 36-3 and 57-3 in both innings, ably helped by Harbjan Singh there – Sri Lanka’s Herath also took 9 wickets here in 2012.

Both India and South Africa have the bowlers capable of taking advantage of these conditions and picking one single performer in a betting sense is hard as the first innings as history shows us that the first innings here has often been dominated by one singular figure. Zaheer Khan and Vernon Philander would be our choices here as far as wicket-taking goes, but the presence of Ravi Ashwin’s spin – over Imran Tahir and JP Duminy for South Africa, both of whom struggled in the first test - could see India take the upper hand and either as a trading or value option, the 11/2 is too tempting to turn down.

 

The seamers can wreak havoc here but the spinners do better here than any other venue and half taken 40 wickets in the last 4 matches – nearly half of them have come in the first innings. Ravi Ashwin, the clear choice of any of the spinners playing, is 9/2 for the first innings honours, a price which does have to be considered strongly for all that no India bowler has stamped themselves down as the one to fear in bowling terms.

The retirement of Jacques Kallis (left) - a legend of the test and international arena -  after this test is another fascinating subplot, with the departing figure having had a lean test year in which he has scored no centuries and averaged less than 20. He did, however, take 3 wickets in the second innings and can get the better of Imran Tahir in the first innings with time out in the middle possibly limited for the spinner with JP Duminy also present in the side, and the 11/10 Hills offer on him taking more wickets than Imran is appealing.

Advice

1 pt India (11/2 general, 6.2 Betfair for back to lay)

1 pt Jacques Kallis to take more first innings wickets than Imran Tahir (11/10 Hills)


Already Advised 

Advice – Series

2 pts Dale Steyn top wicket taker (11/8 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Hashim Amla top South Africa batsman (4/1 general) 


1 pt Chesteswar Pujara top India Batsman (4/1 general)