Clermont (1/33) v
Scarlets (25)
Clermont failed to make the most of an extremely promising
position against Harlequins on the second matchday after an incredible 20
minute opening burst but they’ve been on a fine run of form since and can put
the Scarlets to the sword for the second season running. The Jaunards have
taken their unbeaten streak at home to 67 games at the Stade Marcel Michelin
and laid down a serious Top 14 marker with a romp against Racing Metro and a
hard fought win against Perpignan. The Scarlets will be delighted with a shock
win at Quins and a draw against Racing Metro but their performance levels have
dropped and they arrive without Johanthan Davies here having been well beaten
by Leinster, facing a similar task, in the Pro12. A handicap of 20 points for
the home side is fair.
Advice: 2 pts Clermont -19 (10/11 Boylesports)
Exeter Chiefs (11/4)
v Toulon (1/3)
Premiership clubs managed to disappoint all and sundry this
week ith the news that they don’t intend to be in this competition next season
but Exeter Chiefs fans look to be in for a treat when Champions Toulon comes to
town. The depth of Bernard Laporte’s side means that Sandy Park will see a star
studded international cast including the likes of Johnny Wilkinson, Bryan
Habana, Matt Giteau and Bakkies Botha, and with names like that it’s not a
surprise that the reigning champions are expected to brush Exeter aside but
results suggest that Toulon are a different side on the road and thee has to be
a reasonable doubt over backing a team with one road success to give upto 9
points on the handicap. The Chiefs – who have been in exceptional forward form
this year and kept Bath tryless despite going down at the Rec last weekend -
were brilliant when embarrassing Cardiff with a first half blitz and more than
held their own when taking a losing bonus at Glasgow, and after playing
Clermont and Leinster here last year, are more than ready for the challenge of
the Frenchmen from 1-15 and are tempting getting 9 points on the handicap.
Advice: 1 pt Chiefs +9 (10/11 Ladbrokes)
Zebre (16) v Saracens
(1/14)
Saracens got turned over by Toulouse at Wembley but have the
considerable benefit of two games against Zebre in December and a home tie
against Connacht still to come to seal their pool qualification and they should
rack up the points in Italy. Zebre have been much improved in the Pro 12 but
were brushed aside with a minimum of fuss by Connacht and the Premiership
Champions are more than capable of covering a large handicap with a very strong
backline - including Alex Goode, Chris Ashton, and David Strettle – all
present.
Advice: 3 pts Saracens -16 (10/11 Sportingbet)
Racing Metro (8/15) v
Harlequins (15/8)
Harlequins’ season has gotten off to a dreadful start and
their qualification hopes still look to be on the edge, but since an extremely
spirited fightback at the Stade Marcel Michelin they’ve won four on the bounce (they
now sit third in the Premiership) and can fancy their chances of upsetting a
Racing Metro side who’ve not quite clicked after Europe’s biggest spending
spree. There’s no doubting that home advantage can carry them to a win, but
with the attacking fluency back in Quins’ game his could be even tighter than
the handicappers have predicted and a home win by 1-5 points might be value;
The same margin made appeal for Quins as well.
Advice: 1 pt Racing Metro to win by 1-15 points (5/1 Coral)
Northampton (4/5) v
Leinster (6/5)
Arguably the game of the day and the clash of the December
head to heads as Premiership form side Northampton face off against 2 time
winners Leinster in a rematch of the 2011 final. Flying high in the Premiership, Northampton
have looked as good as they’ve been since reaching that final in 2011 after
several knockout disappointments in the two seasons with the headline additions
of George North, Alex Corbisiero and Kahn Fotuali’I combined with the hugely
improved Tom Wood, Courtney Lawes and Dylan Hartley allowing them to
steamroller opposition on the domestic scene, while they could have been
unbeaten in their pool had it not been for an intercept pass in Castres. Their
failure to gain a bonus point when well on top against Ospreys could count
against them come qualification time, and the untimely loss some of their
backline’s best members isn’t helpful, they have a fine chance of taking the
lead in the first of two crucial ties. Leinster have made a smooth start to the
season and won their two games so far using well executed gameplans which came
mostly from a forward pack, and with a team that has just as much talent and
even more experience than Northampton, are obviously capable of taking a vital
victory as well. With the two sides so closely matched Leinster’s more balanced
backline – their 9-15 have all played for Ireland in the Autumn Internationals
at some points together and Northampton are missing George Pisi and Ben Foden –
could steal it, but the only prediction that can be made with confidence is
that this will be a very tight game. The 1-5 winning margin for both sides
makes appeal and there have been worse games to back the draw for trade.
Advice: 1 pt Northampton to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general),
1 pt Leinster to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general),
Ulster(1/25) v
Treviso (33)
Ulster’s romp in Northampton has seen them take control of
the group by the scruff of the neck and with Leicester and Montpellier bashing
heads over the next 2 weeks a double header against Treviso is a perfect
opportunity for them to put some distance between them and the chasing pack.
When the two met in the league with much changed teams Ulster ran out 32-13
winners and Leicester eventually snuck over for a bonus point try against them
at Welford Road, so Ulster should be more than capable of beating a 21 point handicap
if on their best form – they looked very laboured when winning at Zebre last
week.
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