Wednesday, 25 December 2013

Ashes 2013-14 (4th Test)

This Ashes series seems to plumb new depths for England and Australia can take one step closer to moving over them in the test rankings with a famous whitewash by taking a fourth straight win on the bounce in this series.

The reasons for thinking that Australia are near certainties are many fold. The major news has been the acrimonious departure of Graeme Swann from the England scene has dominated inside and outside the sporting media in both hemispheres but the problems are far more than just his retirement.


In the three tests of this series, Australia have won each of them by 381, 218, and 150 runs.

They have won every session and every day since the first at Brisbane, and outclassed England in with bat, ball and in the field, outscoring England in each of their six innings so far on all manner of pitches in differing conditions. After the first test I did make a point of nothing how the much flatter Adelaide pitch was going to help England’s batsmen who had so badly floundered against the bounce and aggression of Mitchell Johnson and how Andy Flower’s men had improved so much after their first test of an international tour but they were crushed in the same style as before and after, with the dismal form of England’s key batting figures holding them back once again, and at the WACA despite stronger resistance at times, defeat was inevitable despite Ben Stokes’s mini heroics.



Technically England have gotten closer on each of the three occasions but never once looked like winning any of the tests.


The bowling attack that laid the platform in such a way for them has lost condition, form and mastery. Swann has been dominated by the attacking drives of the Australin top order but Panesar took only two wickets at Adelaide and was swatted away just as easily while his presence at second slip will be a giant absence that Monty cannot replace. Stuart Broad has been by some way the best of the fast bowlers for the visitors but took a nasty knock from, guess who, Mitchell Johnson, and didn’t bowl for the rest of the third test, while the overworked James Anderson has struggled for any semblance of form this series; Much has been made of the giants taken on tour for selection but the remaking of Steven Finn seems and experiment gone horribly wrong, Chris Tremlett’s 3-64 in the first test was still in vain and the rest of the touring party doesn’t look on the same level.

Much has been made of the fact that England have just one century to Australia’s seven but centuries or not, Australia’s batsmen have made the starts and outscored their counterparts on every occasion, scoring 2,152 to England’s 1.392 so far.

The first four runscorers are all Australian with Warner, Clarke and Haddin having made over 1,000 runs between them, but the difference in the bowling has been equally pronounced. Mitchell Johnson’s aggression has had enough word written on it to write a novel but his pace has played a big part in him taking 23 wickets. The control that Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle bring alongside him however, has truly cemented the advantage – Broad is the only English wicket taker in the top 5.


England won at the MCG 2 years ago but things couldn’t have changed anymore and at a venue with no draws in the recent past (going back to 1998) the home side are the clear choice.


I’ve been keen to get with Australia’s batsmen and it’s worked to great effect so far but the MCG’s pitch has seen a spate of collapses, bounce, and swing over the past decade and fast bowlers thrive here. James Anderson and Chris Tremlett shared 8 when Australia were knocked over for 98 while Sri Lanka made less than 300 combined last December. The average for the visiting side here is 307 over the last 10 tests first time up and there have been just 3 500+ scores this century, which puts one off such markets especially with Warner, Haddin, Steve Smith and Michel Clarke all in such form. If pushed, the 11/4 for Haddin to make a 50 – as he has done on each of his three first innings starts this series – is just too tempting to pass up, as is his player performance points at 106 and over. Haddin made eight catches in the third test and scored 55 and has passed this mark on each and every occasion. Shane Watson has the highest average here and is an interesting outsider for top first innings runscorer for those who have more faith in the lineup.


Advice


7 pts Australia (8/11 Bet Victor)

2 pts Brad Haddin to score 106 or more performance points (5/6 Bet365)


1 pt Brad Haddin to score a first innings 50 (11/4 Stan James)
 

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