This Ashes series seems to plumb new depths for England and
Australia can take one step closer to moving over them in the test rankings
with a famous whitewash by taking a fourth straight win on the bounce in this
series.
The reasons for thinking that Australia are near certainties
are many fold. The major news has been the acrimonious departure of Graeme
Swann from the England scene has dominated inside and outside the sporting
media in both hemispheres but the problems are far more than just his retirement.
In the three tests of this series, Australia have won each
of them by 381, 218, and 150 runs.
They have won every session and every day since the first at
Brisbane, and outclassed England in with bat, ball and in the field, outscoring
England in each of their six innings so far on all manner of pitches in
differing conditions. After the first test I did make a point of nothing how
the much flatter Adelaide pitch was going to help England’s batsmen who had so
badly floundered against the bounce and aggression of Mitchell Johnson and how
Andy Flower’s men had improved so much after their first test of an
international tour but they were crushed in the same style as before and after,
with the dismal form of England’s key batting figures holding them back once
again, and at the WACA despite stronger resistance at times, defeat was
inevitable despite Ben Stokes’s mini heroics.
Technically England have gotten closer on each of the three
occasions but never once looked like winning any of the tests.
The bowling attack that laid the platform in such a way for
them has lost condition, form and mastery. Swann has been dominated by the
attacking drives of the Australin top order but Panesar took only two wickets
at Adelaide and was swatted away just as easily while his presence at second
slip will be a giant absence that Monty cannot replace. Stuart Broad has been
by some way the best of the fast bowlers for the visitors but took a nasty
knock from, guess who, Mitchell Johnson, and didn’t bowl for the rest of the
third test, while the overworked James Anderson has struggled for any semblance
of form this series; Much has been made of the giants taken on tour for
selection but the remaking of Steven Finn seems and experiment gone horribly
wrong, Chris Tremlett’s 3-64 in the first test was still in vain and the rest
of the touring party doesn’t look on the same level.
Much has been made of the fact that England have just one
century to Australia’s seven but centuries or not, Australia’s batsmen have
made the starts and outscored their counterparts on every occasion, scoring 2,152
to England’s 1.392 so far.
The first four runscorers are all Australian with Warner,
Clarke and Haddin having made over 1,000 runs between them, but the difference
in the bowling has been equally pronounced. Mitchell Johnson’s aggression has
had enough word written on it to write a novel but his pace has played a big
part in him taking 23 wickets. The control that Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle
bring alongside him however, has truly cemented the advantage – Broad is the
only English wicket taker in the top 5.
England won at the MCG 2 years ago but things couldn’t have
changed anymore and at a venue with no draws in the recent past (going back to
1998) the home side are the clear choice.
I’ve been keen to get with Australia’s batsmen and it’s
worked to great effect so far but the MCG’s pitch has seen a spate of collapses,
bounce, and swing over the past decade and fast bowlers thrive here. James
Anderson and Chris Tremlett shared 8 when Australia were knocked over for 98
while Sri Lanka made less than 300 combined last December. The average for the
visiting side here is 307 over the last 10 tests first time up and there have
been just 3 500+ scores this century, which puts one off such markets
especially with Warner, Haddin, Steve Smith and Michel Clarke all in such form.
If pushed, the 11/4 for Haddin to make a 50 – as he has done on each of his
three first innings starts this series – is just too tempting to pass up, as is
his player performance points at 106 and over. Haddin made eight catches in the
third test and scored 55 and has passed this mark on each and every occasion.
Shane Watson has the highest average here and is an interesting outsider for
top first innings runscorer for those who have more faith in the lineup.
Advice
7 pts Australia (8/11 Bet Victor)
2 pts Brad Haddin to score 106 or more performance points
(5/6 Bet365)
1 pt Brad Haddin to score a first innings 50 (11/4 Stan
James)
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