Friday 13 December 2013

Heineken Cup 2013/14: Matchday 4

Glasgow (2/11) v Cardiff (5)

Glasgow would have fancied their chances of a potentially extended run in Europe at the beginning of the group stage but they were painfully average against an energised and excitable Cardiff side that ran out ready winners last Friday in Wales. A return to home turd should see Cardiff turn around the result but a 12 point handicap makes no appeal and the home side to win by 1-12 would be our pick if pushed.

Advice: 1 pt Glasgow to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)

Castres (11/10) v Castres (evs)

 Ospreys came a lot closer to winning last week than the scoreline would suggest and can feel relatively confident about overturning the tables on home turf, for all that barring the dropping of Bruce Dulin, Castres take competitive starting XV. Both teams are big size and power, and last week’s affair rarely looked as if it was going to break open and it might be the same story this time around.




Advice: 1 pt under 36.5 points (5/6 general)
  
Toulon (1/33) v Exeter (16)

Toulon made hard work of getting past Exeter in a game that became all about the hit – barring excellent performances from Jack Nowell, Henry Slade and Matt Giteau – at Sandy Park last week but were well on top for most of the second half and could have put the issues to bed much earlier had Johnny Wilkinson had a better game off the tee. At the Stade Mayol it should be a matter of how far for them; their last 7 European home wins have been by at least 16 points. Looseness in a very open game saw Glasgow Warriors take a bonus point and Cardiff Blues did the same thing last term with late tries, but this should be a comfortable success either way for Laporte’s side. With Exeter having plenty of attacking ability and Matt Giteau, the most creative influence last week, now at 10, this could also be a very high scoring encounter; The last 6 games here have all had 48 points at least.


Advice: 1 pt Toulon to win by 16-20 points (5/1 general), 1 pt Toulon to win by 21-30 points (13/5 Paddy Power) 1pt Over 48.5 points (10/11 general)


Treviso (6) v Ulster (2/11)

Ulster have quietly worked their way into the front runners spot for the Pool and are beginning to shape into very realistic tournament contenders. The team were immaculate in their 48-0 romp at Ravenhill last week and it’s a mark of how impressive they were that for the first time in his spell in charge, Mark Anscombe names an unchanged side that is more than capable of beating an 11 point handicap; Those who think that it’s a large number for a visiting team against Zebre should look at the second half handicap, with Ulster having won all three of their second halves in the pool so far.

Advice: 3 pts Ulster -11 (evs Paddy Power)




Saracens (1/200) v Zebre (66)

Saracens name an extremely high quality side for their first Heineken Cup game on the artificial surface that has served them so well at Allainz Park and that spells trouble for Zebre. The Owen Farrell/Richard Wigglesworth halfback pairing has proven extremely effective, Chris Ashton filled his boots in Italy last week and is joined once again by David Strettle, while Marcelo Bosch boosts the midfield and Alex Goode is once again at fullback in an all-international backline beefed up by Billy Vunipola’s presence at 8. Saracens won by 29 points in Italy and can pass either a 45 point mark or handicap of 35 here.


Advice: 2 pts Saracens -35 (evs Stan James)


Scarlets (13/5) v Clermont (4/11)

This should be harder for Clermont than the 24-0 romp here last year but they have the quality and power to take a win from Scarlets. Vern Cotter’s men have been on a rich run of form – they haven’t lost a game since their unlucky defeat to Racing on the first matchday – and could have had a much bigger winning margin against Scarlets at the Stade Marcel Michelin after wearing them down with sustained pressure early in the second half despite having to wait until overtime for a try. The Scarlets have done themselves proud in this competition with some fantastic rugby in their win at Harlequins and draw against Racing here but Clermont can take another big step towards the quarter finals with a win here; The second half handicap might be the way to go, with Clermont having come from 10-6 and 16-10 down to take a draw and a win at Castres and Perpginan in recent weeks in the Top 14.


Advice: 1 pt Clermont -4.5 on 2nd half no draw handicap (10/11 Bet Victor)

Perpingan (6/5) v Munster (evs)


One of the tightest calls of the weekend with Munster so dominant at Thomond Park but now going to a venue where the hosts have lost just one of their last 23 in this competition, will need to improve on any form they’ve shown this season to take a crucial win from the French/Spanish border. The pack power is definitely there for them to gain parity but the handling that hasn’t been there this season must improve and the hosts may have enough to sneak a win although there isn’t a huge amount of appeal from a betting perspective here and it should be remembered how close many of this Munster side came to Clermont and so nearly took a win in the semi final last year.


Advice: No bet

Connacht (7) v Toulouse (1/8)

Connacht produced a moment for the ages when overturning Toulouse in their own backyard last week and should have high hopes of repeating the trick, but may not be in the same shape with 12 of their squad having suffered fly and the whole squad having disrupted training. Toulouse, beaten fair and square last week, could bring a nasty backlash with the edge in preparation and could confirm large handicaps if Pat Lam’s side have been disrupted this week.

Advice: No bet

Leinster (1/4) v Northampton (5)



Leinster produced arguably the most impressive performance seen anywhere in Europe this season when destroying Northampton last week and on that evidence this won’t stay competitive for long, but it’s worth remembering how Ulster did the same to them and were turned over at Ravenhill a week later and we shouldn’t forget the improvement made by Mallinder’s men over the past year and a half or over the course of a week last year to turn a bonus point defeat into a win at Ravenhill. If the same two teams turn up then 10 points is a generous handicap for Leinster and so would overs on the points but this might be one of the games best left.



Advice: No bet


Harlequins (2/7) v Racing Metro (11/4)

Harlequins’s season has turned around since Scarlets overturned them on the first matchday and based on last week’s thumping in France they should put themselves back in the race for a quarter final spot with a convincing win over Racing Metro. However, while Quins’s shone in France last week it’s safe to assume that Racing played well below themselves and there is potential for a backlash from a team with so much talent if they show up and start better than they did during last week’s horror show. This looks best avoided from a betting point of view with both Harlequins and Racing capable of making a mockery of a 9 point handicap.

Advice: No bet.
Gloucester (1/6) v Edinburgh (8)

There’s the potential for a notable backlash in the December fixtures but Gloucester looked out of Edinbrugh’s league at times last Sunday and infront of the Kingsholm faithful they can set up a titanic battle with Munster. The pace and skill of their backline was too much in Scotland and Cook, Trinder, Twelvetrees, May and Burns can do the same again here.


Advice: 1 pt Glocuester -13 (10/11 general)


Montpellier (evs) v Leicester (6/5)


Montpellier gave Leicester a serious fright last week after going 24-0 down but fought back once and then twice to take the game to it’s last stages at Welford Road, but a much changed XV suggests that they have put their eyes on the Top 14 with qualification essentially impossible and that gives Leicester a fantastic chance to be only the second side to take the points from the Yves Du Manoir this season. Richard Cockeril faces an almost entirely new team in France the continuity he brings with a side that has 5 internationals may prove to be the difference, with confidence in their travelling form boosted by a strong showing at Ravenhill first time up.


Advice: 2 pts Leicester (6/5 Stan James)


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