Glasgow (2/11) v
Cardiff (5)
Glasgow would have
fancied their chances of a potentially extended run in Europe at the beginning
of the group stage but they were painfully average against an energised and
excitable Cardiff side that ran out ready winners last Friday in Wales. A
return to home turd should see Cardiff turn around the result but a 12 point
handicap makes no appeal and the home side to win by 1-12 would be our pick if
pushed.
Advice: 1 pt Glasgow to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)
Castres (11/10) v
Castres (evs)
Ospreys came a lot closer to winning last week
than the scoreline would suggest and can feel relatively confident about
overturning the tables on home turf, for all that barring the dropping of Bruce
Dulin, Castres take competitive starting XV. Both teams are big size and power,
and last week’s affair rarely looked as if it was going to break open and it
might be the same story this time around.
Advice: 1 pt under
36.5 points (5/6 general)
Toulon (1/33) v
Exeter (16)
Toulon made hard work
of getting past Exeter in a game that became all about the hit – barring
excellent performances from Jack Nowell, Henry Slade and Matt Giteau – at Sandy
Park last week but were well on top for most of the second half and could have
put the issues to bed much earlier had Johnny Wilkinson had a better game off
the tee. At the Stade Mayol it should be a matter of how far for them; their
last 7 European home wins have been by at least 16 points. Looseness in a very
open game saw Glasgow Warriors take a bonus point and Cardiff Blues did the
same thing last term with late tries, but this should be a comfortable success
either way for Laporte’s side. With Exeter having plenty of attacking ability
and Matt Giteau, the most creative influence last week, now at 10, this could
also be a very high scoring encounter; The last 6 games here have all had 48
points at least.
Advice: 1 pt Toulon
to win by 16-20 points (5/1 general), 1 pt Toulon to win by 21-30 points (13/5
Paddy Power) 1pt Over 48.5 points (10/11 general)
Treviso (6) v Ulster
(2/11)
Ulster have quietly
worked their way into the front runners spot for the Pool and are beginning to
shape into very realistic tournament contenders. The team were immaculate in
their 48-0 romp at Ravenhill last week and it’s a mark of how impressive they
were that for the first time in his spell in charge, Mark Anscombe names an
unchanged side that is more than capable of beating an 11 point handicap; Those
who think that it’s a large number for a visiting team against Zebre should
look at the second half handicap, with Ulster having won all three of their
second halves in the pool so far.
Advice: 3 pts Ulster -11 (evs Paddy Power)
Saracens (1/200) v
Zebre (66)
Saracens name an extremely high quality side for their first
Heineken Cup game on the artificial surface that has served them so well at
Allainz Park and that spells trouble for Zebre. The Owen Farrell/Richard
Wigglesworth halfback pairing has proven extremely effective, Chris Ashton
filled his boots in Italy last week and is joined once again by David Strettle,
while Marcelo Bosch boosts the midfield and Alex Goode is once again at
fullback in an all-international backline beefed up by Billy Vunipola’s
presence at 8. Saracens won by 29 points in Italy and can pass either a 45
point mark or handicap of 35 here.
Advice: 2 pts Saracens -35 (evs Stan James)
Scarlets (13/5) v Clermont
(4/11)
This should be harder for Clermont than the 24-0 romp here
last year but they have the quality and power to take a win from Scarlets. Vern
Cotter’s men have been on a rich run of form – they haven’t lost a game since
their unlucky defeat to Racing on the first matchday – and could have had a
much bigger winning margin against Scarlets at the Stade Marcel Michelin after
wearing them down with sustained pressure early in the second half despite
having to wait until overtime for a try. The Scarlets have done themselves
proud in this competition with some fantastic rugby in their win at Harlequins
and draw against Racing here but Clermont can take another big step towards the
quarter finals with a win here; The second half handicap might be the way to
go, with Clermont having come from 10-6 and 16-10 down to take a draw and a win
at Castres and Perpginan in recent weeks in the Top 14.
Advice: 1 pt Clermont -4.5 on 2nd half no draw
handicap (10/11 Bet Victor)
Perpingan (6/5) v
Munster (evs)
One of the tightest calls of the weekend with Munster so
dominant at Thomond Park but now going to a venue where the hosts have lost
just one of their last 23 in this competition, will need to improve on any form
they’ve shown this season to take a crucial win from the French/Spanish border.
The pack power is definitely there for them to gain parity but the handling
that hasn’t been there this season must improve and the hosts may have enough
to sneak a win although there isn’t a huge amount of appeal from a betting
perspective here and it should be remembered how close many of this Munster
side came to Clermont and so nearly took a win in the semi final last year.
Advice: No bet
Connacht (7) v
Toulouse (1/8)
Connacht produced a moment for the ages when overturning
Toulouse in their own backyard last week and should have high hopes of
repeating the trick, but may not be in the same shape with 12 of their squad
having suffered fly and the whole squad having disrupted training. Toulouse,
beaten fair and square last week, could bring a nasty backlash with the edge in
preparation and could confirm large handicaps if Pat Lam’s side have been disrupted
this week.
Advice: No bet
Leinster (1/4) v
Northampton (5)
Leinster produced arguably the most impressive performance
seen anywhere in Europe this season when destroying Northampton last week and
on that evidence this won’t stay competitive for long, but it’s worth
remembering how Ulster did the same to them and were turned over at Ravenhill a
week later and we shouldn’t forget the improvement made by Mallinder’s men over
the past year and a half or over the course of a week last year to turn a bonus
point defeat into a win at Ravenhill. If the same two teams turn up then 10
points is a generous handicap for Leinster and so would overs on the points but
this might be one of the games best left.
Advice: No bet
Harlequins (2/7) v
Racing Metro (11/4)
Harlequins’s season
has turned around since Scarlets overturned them on the first matchday and
based on last week’s thumping in France they should put themselves back in the
race for a quarter final spot with a convincing win over Racing Metro. However,
while Quins’s shone in France last week it’s safe to assume that Racing played
well below themselves and there is potential for a backlash from a team with so
much talent if they show up and start better than they did during last week’s
horror show. This looks best avoided from a betting point of view with both
Harlequins and Racing capable of making a mockery of a 9 point handicap.
Advice: No bet.
Gloucester (1/6) v
Edinburgh (8)
There’s the potential for a notable backlash in the December
fixtures but Gloucester looked out of Edinbrugh’s league at times last Sunday
and infront of the Kingsholm faithful they can set up a titanic battle with
Munster. The pace and skill of their backline was too much in Scotland and Cook,
Trinder, Twelvetrees, May and Burns can do the same again here.
Advice: 1 pt Glocuester -13 (10/11 general)
Montpellier (evs) v
Leicester (6/5)
Montpellier gave Leicester a serious fright last week after
going 24-0 down but fought back once and then twice to take the game to it’s
last stages at Welford Road, but a much changed XV suggests that they have put
their eyes on the Top 14 with qualification essentially impossible and that
gives Leicester a fantastic chance to be only the second side to take the
points from the Yves Du Manoir this season. Richard Cockeril faces an almost
entirely new team in France the continuity he brings with a side that has 5
internationals may prove to be the difference, with confidence in their
travelling form boosted by a strong showing at Ravenhill first time up.
Advice: 2 pts Leicester (6/5 Stan James)
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